Eight years ago, I attempted to develop a computer program which would accurately predict outcomes of NFL games and thus, the ability to spot "value" in the lines released by Vegas. Spurned by my love for the game and my competitive nature, and by years of watching and studying the NFL, I already had an uncanny knack for intuitively looking at two teams and predicting which team would cover the spread. During the time I was creating the program, I was picking games on my own using other non-computer based methods with a high degree of certainty, both ATS and totals. When I finally perfected my computer program, and combined its precision with my own abilities to personally select high probability plays, those who followed my plays reaped the rewards.
The process was a five year journey of testing and retooling my program. After several years of development, in 2005, I finally came to a point where I believed I created a legitimate program which would provide a high degree of success. While putting the final touches on the software through the winter of 2005 and the spring of 2006, I entered an online competition for the NFL playoffs. The rules were simple: Wager up to $500 per play and wager on as many NFL playoff games (sides and totals) as you desire. The contestant with the most money after the Super Bowl wins the competition.
I did not use my computer program for the competition, I used my own personal handicapping methods to decide which games had value and with which team (or total) the value was located. I cruised to a 15-1 (94%) record through the Conference Championships and positioned myself in first place heading into the Super Bowl. An opportunity presented itself to "lock" up First Place before the game even started, but in order to do so I would have to play the side I wanted (Pittsburgh) but play the over instead of the under (the under being my preferred play). I took the opportunity for a sure thing and won with the Steelers and lost with the over, finishing the competition with a record of 16-2 (89%) and a bankroll of +$6,630. To this day, I hold the distinction of having the highest win percentage in any contest (multiple sports) run by this company from its inception in 1999 thru the present competitions of 2009. (Link for proof in Documented Plays!)
During the offseason in 2006, I polished up my program and put it through its first season in 2006-2007. I began posting some of my plays on various online
messageboards. You may view my detailed records on the records tab,
but needless to say, the 2006 season was a huge success, with every
single type of system play hitting over 60%, and my ATS and Overs
plays hitting 77% and higher.
In 2007-2008, I expanded my system further to look for more opportunities to spot value, and began posting my full system output (all plays) for free on several messageboards. The 2007 season saw 7 of my 10 "types" of plays hitting over 60%, but everything was overshadowed by "The Year of the Overs". My program was in a zone when it came to predicting overs. It released 22 plays of this type during the season, and lost just one, compiling a record of 21-1 (95%). (Link for proof in Documented Plays!)
In 2008-2009, I was spurned by several associates to share my plays "newsletter style". These gentlemen challenged me to trim down the number of games I played each week and to only release the highest percentage games I could, and share them via email. I took the challenge with a great seriousness and allowed sign-ups for the email newsletter on my blog. I shared what I called my "Personal Plays" and started out the season going 17-4 (81%) thru Week 4 (Link for proof in Documented Plays!). At this point things got even more serious. My computer program and my website were discussed in multiple episodes of a national sports radio show hosted by Steve Czaban. Steve even discussed my capabilities with the infamous Brandon Lang on air.
Due to increased exposure, I began to receive many requests and signups. I continued to provide my free newsletter for another 2 months for no charge (thru Week 9 of the regular season). At which point, due to demands put on my schedule and the number of people I was assisting, I launched this website to have more control over the content (vs. the blog) and was able to avoid sending out plays via email to all the members. In addition to the "Personal Plays" I shared all my computer system plays and began charging a nominal fee for the plays. And the rest is history. I completed the 2008-2009 season hitting a combined 67% (80-40) when including my Personal Plays, my Overs and my Unders. I increased my postseason record to a stunning 44-16 (73%) over 4 seasons, which included (just two days after the Super Bowl teams were set) sharing my computer's projected score for the game, which was accurately predicting that the Steelers would beat the Cardinals by 4 points, but would fail to cover the 7 point spread. The Steelers won by 4 points exactly, 27-23, and I went 7-3 (70%) in all Super Bowl related plays that day.
In 2009-10, I continued to look for additional ways to "attack the spreads". Sportsbooks raised the total lines issued, due to them predicting higher scoring games. As a result, my Overs system produced just four plays, but it swept going 4-0. Frustrated by the lack of plays being made, I realized that I had an opportunity to use my same extremely accurate Overs system to predict Unders. The theory was simple: Books over adjust the total number higher because they don't want to be beat by games going Over the total. As a result, my Overs system does not produce as many plays. But, because of this over adjustment, there must now be value in certain unders. Thus, I took my Overs system and refined what I called "Unders Subset" plays. These were plays not generated by the Unders system, but generated by the Overs system on games where the books had raised the total too high. Doing some backtesting, I calculated that this "Unders Subset" system I had just created went 23-10 (70%) in 2008. I began sharing the plays with my clients, and overall in 2009 these plays went 20-7 (74%). I had now created the "missing link" and the third component to my totals system. Unders Subsets were introduced, and since 2008 have gone 43-17 (72%).
The complete 2009-10 season was a success, though a rough 4 week stretch during weeks 8-11 brought the overall regular season record from 61% (Wks 1-7 & 12-17) down to 54%. Still profitable, but not nearly as strong as I would have liked to see. The computer's totals hit 60%, and the computer was extremely accurate once again in the postseason. Overall for the Playoffs on regular plays (sides/totals) I went 7-4-2 (64%) which includes a perfect 2-0 on the Super Bowl. The computer predicted the New Orleans Saints, a 5 to 6 point underdog, would win outright over the Indianapolis Colts. I completed my analysis and, in a very detailed writeup, shared with my clients a full week before the game why I and my computer believed the Saints were the right side. The Saints won by 14 points and I also took the Under which hit, and I ended my playoffs and my season on a very high note. It marked the second straight season that the computer was "dead on" with its Super Bowl prediction.
Entering my5th season with my complete computer system, it has amassed a record of:
ATS: 127-75 (63%)
Overs Plays: 53-12 (82%)
Unders Plays: 107-66 (62%)
For a Grand Total of: 286-153 (65%)
My success has been a testament to my unrivaled work ethic and desire for success. Combining my sharp handicapping techniques which pull from edges often overlooked by traditional handicappers along with my documented computer program, I have compiled a record over several years that no NFL service monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor has come close to matching. I know what I do well, and I don't diversify myself to other sports. I only handicap the NFL and focus all my efforts on this single sport. I provide the highest level of customer service and the highest percentage winning plays to my clients. The feedback and response has been tremendous and fuels my passion to continue to provide winning plays one day, one week, and one month at a time, until we have a season full of winning weeks and can look back to see the fruit of our labor. I look forward to the challenge of handicapping the hardest sport there is to handicap, and I hope you come along for a memorable and rewarding ride.
- Sharp