Why Pay for Plays?
How to Make Money with Sports Gambling and what is a Fair Price to Pay for a Service?
How to Make Money with Sports Gambling and what is a Fair Price to Pay for a Service?
The goal of every sports investor is to make money. First, how do you determine if you are good enough to make money by legally gambling on sports, and second, how can you determine if you can make money and pay for a service at the same time, such as Sharp Football Analysis?
In general, you make money when you cross the break even point between losing and winning. So what is the break even point? Typically the most common "juice" charged to players is -110. On such a line as -110, in order "to win" $100, you must lay $110. If you only wish to lay $100 on a -110 line, you will win $90.91 should your bet win.
If you most often play on the typical -110 line, your break even point is 52.4%. That is, assuming you bet similar amounts on each bet that you make, you will win money in the long run if your win percentage is above 52.4%. If your win percentage is below 52.4%, you will lose money.
How many people can hit above 52.4%? The simple answer is "not enough", otherwise, Las Vegas and sportsbooks in general would not be in business. These operations have been making money for their owners for years and it is entirely based upon the fact that the public (in general) cannot practice sharp money management (betting too much on certain games or "letting it all ride") and the fact that the majority of the public cannot win 52.4% of the games they play.
Although it seems like an easy percentage to exceed, the reality is that it takes a lot of abilities to do so for a full season, not just a "hot streak". Furthermore, just beating 52.4% is not enough. Beating 52.4% means you are not losing... but you are not playing to "not lose". You are paying to win, which is why achieving the highest win percentage over the course of the season is your primary goal. 67% (Sharp Football Analysis win percentage last season and the lifetime computer average) beats 60% which beats 55% which beats 52.4%. The higher, the better, the more in your pocket, which is everyone's goal.
Even looking to the world of handicappers: in 2008-09, over 150 professional services had their plays tracked by a reputable handicapping tracking service. Over 85 of these services were unable to win 52.4% of their bets. That is well over half. And these are professionals, handicapping for a living. And they lost their client's money because they could not even break even. How many of these services were able to hit 63% or more? Just 6 out of over 150: Only 4%! This means the chances of you finding a reputable service who does not charge much per week and who hits at a high percentage is slim to none, unless you choose the most reputable, honest, reliable and consistent service in the business, Sharp Football Analysis!
So, knowing how difficult it is to hit at a percentage high enough to break even, what happens when you pay for a service? Doesn't the amount paid per week to this service force you to win at a higher rate?
Yes, the quick answer is you have to win at a higher percentage to break even, and therefore, to win money.
But what about the small player, who does not bet as much per week. Surely he can't afford to pay any service, even if it is a reasonable $15/week like Sharp Football Analysis? Even considering that Sharp Football Analysis has his computer system with a lifetime record of 67% and whose releases last season went 80-40 (67%)? Surely such a player would need to hit at an astronomical win percentage just to break even after paying for a service?
Well, lets look at Sharp Football Analysis and the per-week price of $15. And let's assume that an ultra-conservative gambler is placing just four, $25 bets a week, for a total of $100 on the line each week. The most he can win is that $90.91 figure above, because he is playing at -110 juice. So typically, this player needs to win 52.4% of his plays to make money without paying a service. But, now he is paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis. So instead of having $100 on the line to win $90.91, he has $115 ($100+$15) on the line just to win that same amount ($90.91).
This now means that this player needs to win 55.8% of his plays in order to break even. If he can win more than that, he makes money. Even though he only bets $100/week and even though he is paying Sharp Football Analysis $15/week.
As you know, Sharp Football Analysis has a computer system and his personal plays. The computer system is lifetime 239-116 which is a win percentage of 67.1%. Last season, his personal plays (primairly ATS) plus the computer's overs and unders plays netted a record of 80-40-3 (67%). Thus, this $100/week player should feel quite confident that, although he is only betting $100/week, that his $15/week paid to Sharp Football Analysis will create quite an impressive return on investment!
So, we looked at a smaller $100/week bettor. Let's look at a few other scenarios of how much a player might put up on a weekly basis, and how much he would need to win in order to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis:
A $50/week bettor needs to win at least 58.8% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
A $150/week bettor needs to win at least 54.8% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
A $250/week bettor needs to win at least 53.8% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
A $400/week bettor needs to win at least 53.3% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
A $500/week bettor needs to win at least 53.1% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
From this analysis, it appears that even the small $50/week bettor can justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis, considering Sharp has consistently produced winners at a rate which far exceeds 58.8%.
So, there are a couple of things to take away from this.
#1 - You have to be confident in your service and its ability to produce winning plays. At Sharp Football Analysis, we shared the system plays for free for several years on messageboards and the track record is fully documented. When Sharp Football Analysis says they have never had a losing season, have a 67% record for the computer plays since 2005, and each season has recorded huge winning records across the variety of play types, it is the honest truth. Sharp Football Analysis does not hide behind "star system" values, or "units won or lost". Those are methods created by bad handicappers to hide their losses and not provide accurate results. Each week, the "scam-dicapper" could lose his "25 unit play", but after 3 weeks, he could release a "100 unit play" that wins, and would claim to be "up 25 units on the season". When in fact, his real record is 1-3 (25%) and his followers could not afford to quadruple their bet the 4th week with their "real money", whereas he could with his imaginary "units".
#2 - If a service charges more than $15/week, that increased amount needs to be factored into these calculations, and the needed win percentage to break even will increase. Thus, it provides big dividends to get high win percentages for just $15/week like at Sharp Football Analysis.
Lastly, lets do a quick look at what a service "could" charge provided it wins at a high percentage:
But Sharp Football Analysis is not in this to maximize profits by any means necessary. Sharp Football Analysis is here to help all players, small or large, produce positive results and to enjoy a winning football season. The more players who become aware of Sharp's methods, techniques and abilities, the less likely they are to 1) overpay another service who underachieves and 2) lose money to the casinos and bookmakers. That is why Sharp prides this service on keeping affordable rates to everyone and going over-and-above to spread the winnings around!
In general, you make money when you cross the break even point between losing and winning. So what is the break even point? Typically the most common "juice" charged to players is -110. On such a line as -110, in order "to win" $100, you must lay $110. If you only wish to lay $100 on a -110 line, you will win $90.91 should your bet win.
If you most often play on the typical -110 line, your break even point is 52.4%. That is, assuming you bet similar amounts on each bet that you make, you will win money in the long run if your win percentage is above 52.4%. If your win percentage is below 52.4%, you will lose money.
How many people can hit above 52.4%? The simple answer is "not enough", otherwise, Las Vegas and sportsbooks in general would not be in business. These operations have been making money for their owners for years and it is entirely based upon the fact that the public (in general) cannot practice sharp money management (betting too much on certain games or "letting it all ride") and the fact that the majority of the public cannot win 52.4% of the games they play.
Although it seems like an easy percentage to exceed, the reality is that it takes a lot of abilities to do so for a full season, not just a "hot streak". Furthermore, just beating 52.4% is not enough. Beating 52.4% means you are not losing... but you are not playing to "not lose". You are paying to win, which is why achieving the highest win percentage over the course of the season is your primary goal. 67% (Sharp Football Analysis win percentage last season and the lifetime computer average) beats 60% which beats 55% which beats 52.4%. The higher, the better, the more in your pocket, which is everyone's goal.
Even looking to the world of handicappers: in 2008-09, over 150 professional services had their plays tracked by a reputable handicapping tracking service. Over 85 of these services were unable to win 52.4% of their bets. That is well over half. And these are professionals, handicapping for a living. And they lost their client's money because they could not even break even. How many of these services were able to hit 63% or more? Just 6 out of over 150: Only 4%! This means the chances of you finding a reputable service who does not charge much per week and who hits at a high percentage is slim to none, unless you choose the most reputable, honest, reliable and consistent service in the business, Sharp Football Analysis!
So, knowing how difficult it is to hit at a percentage high enough to break even, what happens when you pay for a service? Doesn't the amount paid per week to this service force you to win at a higher rate?
Yes, the quick answer is you have to win at a higher percentage to break even, and therefore, to win money.
But what about the small player, who does not bet as much per week. Surely he can't afford to pay any service, even if it is a reasonable $15/week like Sharp Football Analysis? Even considering that Sharp Football Analysis has his computer system with a lifetime record of 67% and whose releases last season went 80-40 (67%)? Surely such a player would need to hit at an astronomical win percentage just to break even after paying for a service?
Well, lets look at Sharp Football Analysis and the per-week price of $15. And let's assume that an ultra-conservative gambler is placing just four, $25 bets a week, for a total of $100 on the line each week. The most he can win is that $90.91 figure above, because he is playing at -110 juice. So typically, this player needs to win 52.4% of his plays to make money without paying a service. But, now he is paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis. So instead of having $100 on the line to win $90.91, he has $115 ($100+$15) on the line just to win that same amount ($90.91).
This now means that this player needs to win 55.8% of his plays in order to break even. If he can win more than that, he makes money. Even though he only bets $100/week and even though he is paying Sharp Football Analysis $15/week.
As you know, Sharp Football Analysis has a computer system and his personal plays. The computer system is lifetime 239-116 which is a win percentage of 67.1%. Last season, his personal plays (primairly ATS) plus the computer's overs and unders plays netted a record of 80-40-3 (67%). Thus, this $100/week player should feel quite confident that, although he is only betting $100/week, that his $15/week paid to Sharp Football Analysis will create quite an impressive return on investment!
So, we looked at a smaller $100/week bettor. Let's look at a few other scenarios of how much a player might put up on a weekly basis, and how much he would need to win in order to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis:
A $50/week bettor needs to win at least 58.8% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
A $150/week bettor needs to win at least 54.8% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
A $250/week bettor needs to win at least 53.8% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
A $400/week bettor needs to win at least 53.3% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
A $500/week bettor needs to win at least 53.1% to justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis.
From this analysis, it appears that even the small $50/week bettor can justify paying $15/week to Sharp Football Analysis, considering Sharp has consistently produced winners at a rate which far exceeds 58.8%.
So, there are a couple of things to take away from this.
#1 - You have to be confident in your service and its ability to produce winning plays. At Sharp Football Analysis, we shared the system plays for free for several years on messageboards and the track record is fully documented. When Sharp Football Analysis says they have never had a losing season, have a 67% record for the computer plays since 2005, and each season has recorded huge winning records across the variety of play types, it is the honest truth. Sharp Football Analysis does not hide behind "star system" values, or "units won or lost". Those are methods created by bad handicappers to hide their losses and not provide accurate results. Each week, the "scam-dicapper" could lose his "25 unit play", but after 3 weeks, he could release a "100 unit play" that wins, and would claim to be "up 25 units on the season". When in fact, his real record is 1-3 (25%) and his followers could not afford to quadruple their bet the 4th week with their "real money", whereas he could with his imaginary "units".
#2 - If a service charges more than $15/week, that increased amount needs to be factored into these calculations, and the needed win percentage to break even will increase. Thus, it provides big dividends to get high win percentages for just $15/week like at Sharp Football Analysis.
Lastly, lets do a quick look at what a service "could" charge provided it wins at a high percentage:
- If a service wins at 60%:
- A $100/week gambler would break even by paying $36 per week for a service, provided that service wins at a 60% rate. If the service does better than 60%, the gambler will make money.
- A $250/week gambler would break even by paying $91 per week for a service, provided that service wins at a 60% rate. If the service does better than 60%, the gambler will make money.
- A $100/week gambler would break even by paying $36 per week for a service, provided that service wins at a 60% rate. If the service does better than 60%, the gambler will make money.
- If a service wins at 65%:
- A $100/week gambler would break even by paying $69 per week for a service, provided that service wins at a 65% rate. If the service does better than 65%, the gambler will make money.
- A $250/week gambler would break even by paying $172 per week for a service, provided that service wins at a 65% rate. If the service does better than 65%, the gambler will make money.
But Sharp Football Analysis is not in this to maximize profits by any means necessary. Sharp Football Analysis is here to help all players, small or large, produce positive results and to enjoy a winning football season. The more players who become aware of Sharp's methods, techniques and abilities, the less likely they are to 1) overpay another service who underachieves and 2) lose money to the casinos and bookmakers. That is why Sharp prides this service on keeping affordable rates to everyone and going over-and-above to spread the winnings around!