Week 14 gave us a game of the year candidate and a number of other matchups between contending teams. That’s all we can ask for a late-season slate, even if that same schedule does give us Giants-Eagles on Monday night.
1. SAINTS-NINERS Was Better Than Expected And Everything We Needed
A little over a year ago, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams played a 54-41 game on Monday Night Football that was believed to be the future of football. The San Francisco 49ers’ 48-46 win on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome might not take us that far to definite conclusions, but we did see a glimpse of what the future of well-played and schemed offensive football can be.
What made this game more important was the impact on the top of the NFC standings. The Saints already clinched their division and the 49ers are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot and after the win, San Francisco again sits as the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The entire game was a series of punches and counterpunches from two of the best teams in the league against two of the better defenses in the league. San Francisco ranked first in pass defensive DVOA coming into the week and New Orleans ranked ninth.
Only seven of 23 full drives in this game did not end in points with most of that coming through the air. Both Drew Brees and Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 349 yards, but those yards came in slightly different ways. Brees continued his late-career M.O. of getting accurate passes out quickly, while Garoppolo tried to buy a little more time to allow big plays to develop.
| Player | Attempts | YPA | EPA/play | Time to Throw | aDOT | Comp% Over Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 40 | 8.7 | 0.49 | 2.45 | 5.2 | +5.2% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 35 | 10.0 | 0.44 | 3.01 | 6.9 | +11.8% |
The offenses completely controlled the majority of the game and even exploited the perceived strengths of their opponent. Entering the week, the 49ers were first in DVOA against opposing tight ends with just 4.79 yards per target and three touchdowns allowed to the position. But by the first play of the second quarter, the Saints already had three passing touchdowns to tight ends, two to Jared Cook and one to Josh Hill. That would be more notable if nine more touchdowns weren’t scored between these two teams on Sunday.
Both teams went deep into the playbook to one-up the other with big play attempts and Kyle Shanahan went hardest on some trick plays. San Francisco’s third touchdown came on a 35-yard pass to running back Raheem Mostert from wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders off a pitch from wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
Then late in the first half on a 3rd and 1, the 49ers handed the ball to fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who then pitched it to Mostert as he took a hit and the running back took it up the sideline for an 18-yard gain. The play was also opened up by pre-snap motion from Sanders, who looped into the backfield from the right side of the formation. San Francisco scored on a 10-yard Mostert run on the next play after a false start.
For all the creativity in the game, the biggest play came down to one player being really good at what he does. Facing a 4th and 2 from their own 33-yard line trailing 46-45 with 39 seconds left in the game, the 49ers ran a quick out from a bunch set to George Kittle, who turned up the field, carried multiple Saints defenders with him and drew a facemask penalty that gained 39 yards with an additional 14 from the penalty and set San Francisco up at the 14-yard line. The 49ers would kick the game-winning field goal three plays later.
The Niners were able to spread the ball around efficiently in the game with nine targets for Sanders (0.56 Expected Points Added per target), and eight each for Samuel (0.62 EPA per play) and Kittle (0.50) along with six targets for Kendrick Bourne, two of which were touchdowns in the red zone. Much of New Orleans’s passing game ran through Michael Thomas (16 targets for 11 receptions, 134 yards, and a touchdown with 0.36 EPA per target).
San Fransico had allowed a season-high of 27 points in a Week 10 overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks. New Orleans matched that midway through the second quarter but even that wasn’t enough.
With the loss, the Saints temporarily dropped to the No. 3 seed in the NFC and out of a first-round bye. However, Football Outsiders still has New Orleans with a 53.6% chance to grab the No. 2 seed and an additional 14.4% chance to move back up to No. 1. As disappointing as a shootout loss at home must feel, the Saints still sit in an advantageous spot for playoff seeding.
The win was significant for San Francisco, who jumped back into the No. 1 seed and thanks to a Seattle loss has a one-game advantage over the Seahawks. The 49ers have a 61.7% shot at the No. 1 seed, though that was basically be decided in a Week 17 game in Seattle.
One thing we can all hope for is that the playoff seeding works its way so we can get this game again in January.
2. Cause for concern in New England?
After a 23-16 home loss against the Kansas City Chiefs, the New England Patriots are 10-3 and it’s officially time to panic. Or is it? Let’s hop through a number of potential concerns to see what to make of the top of the AFC (non-Baltimore division).
The Patriots just lost to another AFC contender
This now marks two weeks in a row New England has lost to an AFC division leader. Last week it was Houston and now Kansas City. Add in the Baltimore game a few weeks ago and New England has been non-competitive against all three division leaders in the conference.
But they were screwed by the refs
This is true to an extent. There were two glaring bad calls that went against the Patriots and potentially took points off the board. A clear fumble from Travis Kelce was blown dead which stopped a likely scoop and score from Stephon Gilmore. The Patriots challenged and got the ball but not the score and the Patriots kicked a field goal instead on the following drive.
Then a touchdown catch and run by N’Keal Harry was ruled out of bounds but the Patriots could not challenge because they used their final challenge on the Kelce fumble.
Both of those calls were bad and the Patriots should be upset, but they should be equally upset at wasting their first challenge earlier on the same drive as the Kelce fumble. Bill Belichick tried to double challenge a spot of the ball and offensive pass interference on a five-yard Sammy Watkins reception on a 3rd and 4 that had a close to 0% chance of being overturned. Losing that challenge was just as big of a mistake as the officials ruling Harry out at the 3-yard line.
The offense remains a mess
This is true. The Patriots had to rely on more trick plays in order to create big gains — this time a flea-flicker for a 37-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to Julian Edelman in the first quarter. However, the biggest positive is how well these plays are timed and how well they’re executed. The flea-flicker came on a fake to the outside and drew the entire defense to the run and opened up Edelman down the field.
But there were few other positives. Brady continues to be a mess against the blitz and the Chiefs brought a ton of pressure on Sunday. This feels like something teams will continue to do more against New England after a career of the quarterback torching a defense with extra rushers.
Brady averaged 4.7 yards per attempt, minus-0.22 EPA per play with a success rate of 35% and a 38.7 QBR. This was Brady’s fourth straight game with a sub-40.0 QBR (remember single-game QBR should be best viewed as a win probability metric — a team would be expected to win 38.7% of the time with a performance like Brady’s on Sunday). Luckily, thanks to a continually great defense, the Patriots have gone 2-2 in those games.
There’s still hope
We’ve held that New England has merely an average-to-above-average offense instead of a great one. Though as performances continue to be underwhelming, the confidence in that starts to wane. But, New England gets about the best stretch of games a struggling team could hope for with matchups against the Bengals and Dolphins sandwiching a home game against the Bills. The Patriots still have a 71.2% chance at the No. 2 seed thanks to the schedule and the game lead over the Chiefs (Kansas City has a 22.1% chance of jumping New England). There’s still time for the Patriots to get things together on offense, though that time is quickly running out.
3. Baltimore can win ugly
Sunday’s other matchup between playoff-bound AFC teams was a little uglier. The defenses of the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills held for the early part of the game for just a 10-6 score at the half. Scoring opened up a bit in the second half for an eventual 24-17 Ravens win. For as easily as Baltimore has run through some opponents, the Buffalo defense impressed for a majority of the game while the Bills offense showed itself as a weak link.
Lamar Jackson had one of his worst games of the season but still manages positive EPA both through the air and on the ground despite averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt passing. There were still a number of plays — specifically a 61-yard touchdown pass to Hayden Hurst while Jackson took a hit — that showed off the play-making ability could still appear at any time.
The defense is what really showed up for Baltimore against Buffalo, rattling Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who averaged 3.7 yards per attempt with minus-0.28 EPA per play with a 14.8 QBR. Allen had put together a string of decent to good performances over recent weeks, but look more like rookie Josh Allen with rushed deliveries and sailed throws. Allen completed just two passes further than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage on 14 such attempts.
Ravens defenders were also all over Allen’s passes with eight passes defensed as a team. Marcus Peters led the way with three including a breakup just in front of the end zone on a 4th and 8 to win the game.
With the win and New England’s loss, Baltimore is virtually guaranteed the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Ravens continue to be the best team in the league and have now proven they can win multiple ways, which will make them incredibly dangerous throughout the playoffs.
4. Green Bay leaves more to be desired
The Packers keep winning but everything still hasn’t clicked for the team and they managed just a five-point win over the Washington Redskins, 20-15. Of course, the Packers will take the win in a tight NFC North race but there are still concerns for this team as they head into the final few games of the season.
The biggest might be the continual disconnect between the play called and the result on offense. Against Washington, the Packers had a Pass Block Win Rate of 96%, which is the highest-single game PBWR for a team this season, per ESPN Stats and Info. (Pass Block Win Rate measures the success of a block within the first 2.5 seconds of a play.) But despite that, Aaron Rodgers held the ball for an average of 3.5 seconds, per Next Gen Stats, and took four sacks.
A problem since the start of the season has been the difference in the Green Bay offense from scripted plays early in the game to everything after. Per Football Outsiders, the Packers are second in offensive DVOA in the first quarter but drop to 18th in the second quarter. Then they go into the half and regroup, come out sixth in DVOA for the third quarter then drop to 16th in the fourth quarter. It’s an offense that seems to go in and out of rhythm constantly throughout the flow of the game.
These issues don’t really come into play against Washington or the Giants, but might when the Packers have to play a team that matters. Green Bay finishes the season against all three NFC North teams with the most important being a Week 16 Monday Night Football matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. They’ll face the Bears next week, who have still been just good enough on defense to take advantage of any offensive mistakes.
5. Lockdown in Houston
After a 28-22 win over the Patriots last week, the Texans looked ready to jump into at least the second-tier of contenders in the AFC. SO naturally, they followed that up with a 38-24 home loss to the Denver Broncos.
It’s not completely Houston’s fault, there’s only so much a team can do to stop the greatest quarterback in the world, Drew Lock. Lock completed 22-of-27 passes for 309 yards (11.4 yards per attempt) with three touchdowns and an interception — good enough for 0.72 EPA per play and a 98.7 QBR.
Lock was on-target for much of the game and made a number of impressive throws. Perhaps the best aspect of the game was the quarterback’s ability to find the open receiver. Lock threw into tight coverage on just 11.1% of his attempts, per Next Gen Stats. That’s a week after Lock finished with 10.7% of his throws into tight windows. In college, Lock threw his share of YOLO balls, but he’s kept away from that so far in two starts while not limiting his ability to make big plays. That’s a significant step.
While tight end Noah Fant had the biggest impact as a receiver (four catches, 113 yards, and a touchdown), Lock’s best throw might have been his first of the second quarter to Tim Patrick. On a3rd and 9 with pressure coming, Lock fired a strike down the sideline between the trailing corner and oncoming safety.
On the other side of the ball, Deshaun Watson struggled to find anyone not named DeAndre Hopkins. But the offense was able to rebound just enough for a few late scores.
Houston is probably somewhere between the team that ran through New England last week and the team Denver ran through on Sunday. And as much as those games do matter, the Texans’ only concern will be two upcoming games against the Tennessee Titans, which will decide the AFC South.
6. Are the Rams back?
The Rams, like the Patriots, have mostly been fine on offense this season but that feels like a huge step back because the Rams (and Patriots) have been much more than fine over the past two seasons. But the Rams now have back-to-back impressive offensive showings against the Cardinals and Seahawks. LA’s 28-12 win over Seattle looked more like the 2018 Rams than anything we’ve seen during the 2019 season.
Seattle’s defense presents a favorable matchup for the Rams because of how much base they play. Through Week 13, the Seahawks played 57.4% of their pass snaps with only four defensive backs on the field, per Sports Info Solutions charting. The Rams have often been a team that uses three wide receivers, but they have adopted some heavier personnel packages this season and even when they used multiple tight ends on the field, they went after Seattle’s linebackers in coverage.
Jared Goff was 8-of-9 for 125 yards and a touchdown targeting 11-19 yards down the field, per Next Gen Stats. That was an area either targeting the linebackers in man or an opening between the linebackers and safeties in zone.
Throughout the game, the Rams got back to success with play-action and pre-snap motion, using the receiver jet motion and both a fake and a handoff for both Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds.
This might just be a little too late for the Rams to turn their season around. At 8-5 they still have a 23.5% chance at a Wild Card berth, but that would take a major collapse from a team in front of them, though they do get an increasingly poor Dallas Cowboys defense next week. Can we temporarily make the Rams an NFC East team for the playoffs?
7. Kirk Cousins gets it
Kirk Cousins in two tweets from Sunday.
Kirk Cousins on play-action in the first half: 12-12, 114 yards, TD
— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) December 8, 2019
— Arif Hasan, nondenominational holiday supporter ⛄ (@ArifHasanNFL) December 9, 2019
8. Play of the day
Schematically, one of the plays above from the Saints-49ers game would get it. Even the Chiefs used a read option with Travis Kelce at quarterback. But for entertainment value, Ryan Tannehill getting picked off and then running down the field and delivering a Goldberg-level spear for the tackle has to lead the way. This needs a multi-frame breakdown.
First, Tannehill throws the ball against this:
Then he gets blocked out of the play.
But he circles back around and right before he makes contact, Maurice Hurst is looking the other way and has no idea the hit is coming.
Then BOOM. Who’s Next?
9. Chart(s) of the Day
Austin Ekeler became the 29th player since the merger to have 100 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards in the same game. He’s the first to do it this season after Christian McCaffery last pulled the feat in Week 12 of 2018.
Even as Melvin Gordon has continued to get more carries for the Chargers and has increased production, Ekeler has still been the best back in Los Angeles.
10. The Other Game of the Day: Colts At Buccaneers
New Orleans-San Francisco was a fun game because it was two great teams playing a meaningful game at a high level. Indianapolis-Tampa Bay was a fun game for the exact opposite reasons. Jameis Winston threw for 10.1 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and three interceptions for the most Jameis Winston statline imaginable. This is pretty much all you need to know:
