If you've been wagering on sports for a while, you've probably noticed how betting lines bounce around in the days before the game. Smart bettors always talk about “getting the best of the number” or “beating the closing line.” Put simply, they're talking about the CLV, AKA Closing Line Value.
The CLV can be very important if you are a large-volume bettor who wants to get more value for your wagers in the long run. That said, let's break down what CLV betting is all about and how to beat the closing lines.
CLV Betting Glossary: Essential CLV Terms You Need to Know
Before we deep dive into CLV strategy, it pays to know the relevant lingo. Here are the essential betting terms to get you started:
🚀 Opening Line
The first odds a sportsbook puts out for a game is the “opening line.” Opening lines are often set days or even weeks before an event. For NFL games, for instance, you might see opening lines pop up on Sunday night for next week's games. College football sometimes early line releases for games, sometimes months ahead of time. On the other hand, opening lines for NBA and college basketball games are typically released on gameday or the day before.
🏁 Closing Line
The closing line is the final odds available right before a game starts. Usually these are the most accurate because they have been shaped by oddsmakers and then by sharp money throughout the week. Additionally, they factor in all the information released during the week, such as injury updates or weather conditions.
🔄 Line Movement
As we mentioned above, betting odds change between opening and closing based on betting action and new information. Like currency or stock prices, lines go up and down based on money coming in and new info hitting the market. Savvy bettors know when to pounce on line movements at the right time.
📈 Positive CLV
A positive CLV happens when you get more value for a bet relative to the closing line value. Let's say you bet on the LA Rams to cover a +5 spread on Tuesday. If the line is +6 by kickoff on Sunday, you've got 1 point of positive CLV (you got a better number than the closing line). In moneyline terms, getting +150 when the line closes +130 means you locked in an extra $20 of value on a successful $100 bet.
📉 Negative CLV
Negative CLV occurs when you place a bet at worse odds than the closing line. An example of this would be wagering on the Dallas Cowboys to cover at -7 early in the week, only to watch the line drop to -5.5 by kickoff. For your -7 bet to be successful, the Cowboys would need to win by more than 7 points. If you had wagered at the right time to get -5.5, they would only have needed to win by 6 points.
Understanding Closing Line Value and CLV Betting
Closing Line Value (CLV) is a term in sports betting that measures the difference between the odds or line at which you placed your bet and the final market price (closing line). CLV is expressed either as a difference in points/spreads or as the variance in implied probability for moneyline bets.
CLV betting is pretty simple when you boil it down: Did you grab better odds than what the game line closed at? If yes, you've got a positive CLV. If not, that's a negative CLV.
Experienced bettors study the likelihood of an outcome based on odds/line movement. Experienced bettors often follow money movements in the market to determine how accurately odds reflect true probabilities. If the closing line is way lower than the starting price, the chances are good that the market is worth betting on.
Let's walk through a couple of CLV betting examples to get a better grasp, one focusing on point spreads and the other on the moneyline:
CLV Example 1: NFL Point Spread
Imagine the Buffalo Bills open as a -5.5 favorite against the Jets on Monday Night Football. You notice some respected bettors taking the Bills early, so you also grab -5.5 (-110). Throughout the week, news breaks that the Jets' starting corner is out, and more money pours in on Buffalo and pushes the line to -7 by kickoff.
Even before the game starts, you're already winning. You've got a ticket at -5.5 when many other people are laying -7. That 1.5 points of CLV is huge in NFL betting, where so many games land close to the spread number. Bettors who regularly get positive CLV have a huge edge on the market in the long run.
CLV Example 2: NFL Moneyline
Let’s say the Tampa Bay Bucs open at -150 on the moneyline against the New Orleans Saints. You hear whispers that the Saints' starting quarterback, Derek Carr, might be dealing with a thumb injury, so you jump on the Bucs early. Sure enough, a day later, Carr is ruled out, and the moneyline jumps to -180, which means on a $100 bet, you secured $11 of value ($66.67 instead of $55.56 in profits).
Benefits of CLV Betting: Why Sharp Bettors Care About CLV
Beating the closing line is more important than you think. The final odds are usually the sharpest, most accurate you'll see. The market has had time to sort itself out, the smart money has come in, and all the important info is baked into the price.
CLV is a long-term success indicator that tells you more about your betting strategy than your win-loss record. You might get lucky and win a few bets with bad numbers, but consistently beating the closing line over hundreds of bets is no accident. Sharp bettors know that if you keep getting better numbers than closing, profits will follow.
Not all line movements are the same. A half-point move in an NFL game when crossing key numbers (like 3 or 7) is worth way more than a full-point move in college basketball. Smart bettors pick their spots and put more weight on meaningful line movements.
Multiple sportsbook accounts equal more CLV opportunities. Having accounts at different books lets you:
- Grab the best number available at any time
- Take advantage of books that are slow to move their lines
- Jump on odds before they get in line with the market
- Shop for the best price instead of settling for what one sportsbook offers
Let's say you grab the Patriots at -2.5 on Tuesday, and by Sunday kickoff, the line's moved to -4. Even if New England doesn't cover, you have still made a solid bet compared to those who bet the closing line because you got the better number. Do this consistently, and you're playing the game like the pros do, consistently giving yourself a higher likelihood of winning bets.
Does CLV Betting Work on Moneyline Bets?
CLV isn't just about point spreads; it also works on moneylines and totals. If you bet the Carolina Panthers at +160 on the moneyline, and by kickoff, they're down to +140, then you've grabbed an extra 20 cents of CLV. Over time, these little edges add up to serious cash.
Tips for CLV Betting
You can do a few things to get better at finding CLV, but it pays to understand why the odds move. Sometimes, the reason is obvious (like when a star quarterback gets hurt), but other times, lines move because sharp bettors see something the public doesn't.
Take March Madness, for example. Smart money might pounce on a lower-seeded, mid-major 12-seed against a power-conference 5-seed because they ignored the name on the jerseys and focused on the efficiency numbers.
The main two keys for successful long-term CLV betting are:
- Keep multiple sportsbook accounts funded and ready: Different books will have different lines, and being able to shop around and lay money when the time is right is huge. Maybe DraftKings has the Rams at -3 (-110), but FanDuel is still sitting at -2.5 (-110). That half-point could be the difference between a win and a push.
- Watch how the money moves: If a line moves fast, there's usually a reason. Maybe sharp bettors know something you don't, or big news is about to drop. Following these movements can help you spot opportunities.
Common CLV Mistakes to Avoid
Even experienced bettors sometimes mess up when chasing CLV. In general, you won't always be able to find the best lines and odds throughout the week, even if you try. Chasing CLV can sometimes lead to making rash betting decisions.
Here are a few things to avoid with CLV betting:
- Chasing line moves too late: If you're jumping on a line that's already moved three times, you're probably getting the worst of it.
- Ignoring context: Not all line moves are created equal. A half-point move in an NFL game means way more than the same move in an NBA total.
- Getting married to one book: Loyalty programs are nice, but not if they cost you better odds and lines elsewhere.
Does CLV Betting Make a Big Difference?
The short answer is yes. If you routinely beat the closing line over hundreds of bets, you will definitely earn more profits, with all other things being equal. However, consistently finding CLV takes time, research, and patience that most causal bettors won't have.
So, in general, beating the closing line is hugely important, but real value won't be significant unless your betting volume is high and you are regularly getting CLV.
CLV Betting | FAQ
How do you predict CLV?
You can predict your CLV by comparing the odds at which you placed your bets to the closing line odds. It's best to track CLV across all your wagers using apps or spreadsheets.
Is there a difference between CLV and EV?
Expected Value (EV) measures the long-term profitability of a bet, while CLV points to your betting accuracy by telling you what odds you bet as compared to the market's closing odds.
How do you beat the CLV?
To beat the CLV, learn to identify early value in betting lines and movements. Use analytics tools to monitor line movements and react quickly to news or market errors before the odds adjust.