The Commanders' aggressiveness on fourth down took over NFL discussions last year.
The fact they parlayed that aggressiveness into a trip to the NFC Championship was notable and helped endear the team’s “win at all costs” mentality.
But lost in the discussion was the fact the Commanders went for it on fourth down more often in 2023, 2022, and 2021.
Fourth down attempts by year:
2024: 23 att ◄
2023: 29 att
2022: 25 att
2021: 32 att
Even if you want to isolate only “manageable” fourth down situations such as fourth and 4 or less, the Commanders went for it more in 2023 (22 times), 2022 (20 times), and 2021 (22 times) than they did in 2024 (19 times).
The difference in 2024 was not in the “desire” to go for it.
The difference was their ability to convert, thanks primarily to Jayden Daniels with help from OC Kliff Kingsbury.
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Commanders Historic Success on Fourth Down
The Commanders converted 87% of their fourth down attempts in 2024: 20 of 23.
They didn’t come close to that rate in prior years:
2024: 87% ◄
2023: 55%
2022: 48%
2021: 50%
But it wasn’t just previous Commanders offenses that fell short of that 87% conversion rate.
No team in modern NFL history has come close to that rate.
Looking back to at least 2000, no team with over 10 fourth down attempts in a season converted 87% or better except the 2024 Commanders.
Expanding the sample, look at the top performing teams with over 15 fourth down attempts since 2000:
87%: 2024 Commanders (23 att) ◄
81%: 2018 Saints (16 att)
80%: 2006 Patriots (20 att)
78%: 2022 Rams (19 att)
77%: 2008 Patriots (22 att), 2002 Colts (17 att), 2005 Patriots (17 att)
76%: 2020 Raiders (21 att)
75%: 2009 Jets (20 att)
74%: 2005 Broncos (19 att), 2004 49ers (19 att)
73%: 2023 Eagles (26 att), 2024 Bills (22 att)
Washington’s efficiency on fourth down was the best we’ve seen in modern NFL history.
every Commanders 4th down play last year
what do you notice? pic.twitter.com/iVQhVPaV1k
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 26, 2025
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When fourth down aggressiveness is mentioned, the first thought that pops into someone’s mind is the Philadelphia Eagles and their tush push.
But the Commanders were actually more efficient on short yardage fourth downs than the Eagles.
Looking at all teams on fourth and short (1-2 yards), the Commanders were the best team in the NFL last year.
Again, not just last year. In modern NFL history:
88%: 2024 Commanders (16 att) ◄, 2017 Eagles (16 att)
85%: 2007 Jaguars (20 att)
84%: 2022 Eagles (19 att)
82%: 2024 Eagles (17 att), 2021 Ravens (17 att)
81%: 2023 Eagles
80%: 2021 Titans (15 att), 2021 Raiders (15 att)
The Commanders were even better than the Eagles and their tush push.
What is truly most incredible is the Commanders had 15 run plays on fourth down and were able to convert 13 of those runs into first downs without using a single QB sneak.
NOT ONCE!
QB sneaks (including tush pushes) are the NFL’s most efficient conversion concept on fourth and short.
Last year, we saw 70 QB sneaks on fourth-and-1, and 90% were converted into first downs (63 of 70).
The next closest conversion rate was 70% (inside zone runs).
Looking at the last three years, we saw 233 QB sneaks on fourth down with 1 to 2 yards to go.
A total of 82.4% were converted into first downs (192 of 233).
That rate was, by far, the most efficient of any run concept. No other rate was higher than 69.8%.
And yet, the Commanders converted 13 of 15 fourth down runs without a single QB sneak.
Aside from three Daniels scrambles, the rest of the runs were various concepts including inside zone, power, duo, and outside zone with a couple of trick plays sprinkled in.
In addition, the Commanders converted 7 of 8 fourth down passes (88%).
Where does 88% rank in modern NFL history?
