The Arizona Cardinals took a calculated risk in the offseason. Following one year of one of the worst offenses in league history, they fired the head coach after one season and traded away a quarterback they traded up for to select in the first round just a year prior. This all came with the hope a combination of head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray could usher in an era of modern offense in Arizona.
For whatever Kingsbury lacked in standout win-loss record, he showed the consistent ability to coach an offense. His Texas Tech offenses were consistently strong despite a lack of overall talent. The Patrick Mahomes led teams were some of the best in college football and even Kingsbury’s final season, the Red Raiders were still 22nd on offense by SP+.
If judging by record, the 2-3-1 Cardinals won’t blow anyone away six weeks into the 2019 season, but they’re already one win away from matching 2018’s win total and the offense — the focal point of this massive change of direction — looks like it’s starting to come together. The offense as a whole ranks 18th in DVOA — a massive upgrade from the 32nd finish last season — and individually, Murray ranks 12th in ESPN’s QBR.
Adapt and adjust
One thing that’s made the Arizona offense so fascinating throughout the first stretch of the season has been its ability to adjust for whatever circumstances it finds itself facing. Kingsbury and the Cardinals have also been able to adapt personnel throughout the season. Arizona gets a lot of attention for the number of plays they run from 10 personnel (one running back, no tight ends, and four wide receivers) and they easily lead the league in that category. Per Sharp Football Stats, the Cardinals have used 10 personnel on 45% of their plays this season. The next highest rate for a team is 9% by the Washington Redkins and the league average is just 3%.
Despite using more receivers than any other team, the Cardinals’ depth is more about the number of players than any top tier quality. Larry Fitzgerald remains impossibly consistent and there’s promise in youngsters like Christian Kirk and KeeSean Johnson, but Arizona is also relying on players such as Damiere Byrd and Trent Sherfield to play a significant amount of snaps. (Each of those receivers has been on the field for at least 37% of Arizona’s offensive snaps.)
Arizona has also suffered a number of injuries at receivers this season. Byrd has already missed two games and Kirk has missed the last two. That forced the Cardinals to use more 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, and three receivers) and on Sunday against the Falcons, Arizona used 12 personnel (two tight ends) on 12% of plays and 22 personnel on 5% of plays. Some of those plays opened up mismatches with running backs David Johnson and Chase Edmonds on the field at the same time. The 12 personnel package even included a play that featured Maxx Williams as the designed target on a “leak” concept that went for a touchdown.
For the most part, the biggest thing the Cardinals offense has needed to adjust for is its own offensive line.
The offensive line was always going to be a weakness and so much of the game plan this season has been about working around it — especially the three-week stretch that saw the Cardinals face the Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, and Seattle Seahawks. Arizona has altered Murray’s time to throw and depth of target based on what the defense has presented this season.
| Week | Opponent | Time to Throw | aDOT | Pressure% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 2.84 | 10.5 | 15.25% |
| 2 | BAL | 2.36 | 7.2 | 36.36% |
| 3 | CAR | 2.45 | 4.8 | 26.79% |
| 4 | SEA | 2.98 | 4.6 | 39.47% |
| 5 | CIN | 2.33 | 9.6 | 16.67% |
| 6 | ATL | 2.72 | 6.9 | 12.2% |
data per Next Gen Stats and Sports Info Solutions
Against Baltimore, Murray released the ball quickly but was still able to push the ball down the field. In the Panthers game, Murray had to get rid of the ball and had little opportunity to go deep. Much of that game plan was about not putting the quarterback in danger. Then against Seattle, Murray tried to create more by taking time in the pocket, but little opened down the field and he was still forced to throw short. But even on those short throws, the Cardinals worked to use spacing to get as much after the catch as they could.
Murray has been successful when throwing from the pocket this season, showing his size has not been an issue. Among 29 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts from the pocket, Murray is 11th in Expected Points Added per attempt, per SIS.
Over the past two weeks, the Cardinals have gotten into a better mix of adjusting for the offensive line and getting of deep passes, thanks to the defenses of the Bengals and Falcons. The ability to take those deep shots was aided by not facing much pressure. Two of Murray’s best throws of the season came this past week against Atlanta. One came with little time needed to set up and launch the ball accurately downfield and the other used a designed move to his right to create space for the throw.
Having the ability to throw the ball deep has been key to the Cardinals’ success on offense because when Murray has gotten the opportunity, he’s been able to connect.
Kyler Murray Attempts 15+ Air Yards
| Week | Opp. | Att | Comp | Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 15 | 5 | 147 |
| 2 | Ravens | 7 | 6 | 204 |
| 3 | Panthers | 6 | 1 | 23 |
| 4 | Seahawks | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Bengals | 9 | 6 | 143 |
| 6 | Falcons | 6 | 4 | 136 |
Running Advantage
The Cardinals have been one of the league’s most efficient rushing teams (fourth in DVOA) not because of a will to establish it, but because they’ve put the run game in an advantageous situation. Since the Cardinals are spread out so often with multiple wide receivers, it’s nearly impossible to defenses to stack the box against the run.
Just considering the defensive box count makes up so much of how successful a run play can be, no matter the blocking advantage or disadvantage across the lines. This year, NFL teams average 5.06 yards per carry against boxes of six or fewer, 4.44 yards per carry against seven-man boxes, and 3.18 yards per carry against boxes of eight or more.
Arizona has the second-lowest rate of runs into stacked boxes (6.85%) and have run the highest-rate of plays into light boxes (63.7%).
David Johnson hasn’t been able to break off many long runs, though Murray and Edmonds have broken a few. The Cardinals have also stayed away from negative runs with the fourth-lowest stuffed rate per Football Outsiders.
Murray is clearly Arizona’s most dangerous runner, but that’s a part of the game the Cardinals have been hesitant to completely exploit. Through six weeks, Murray does have the second-most rushing attempts for a quarterback (34) but that’s still 27 fewer than Lamar Jackson. Jackson has more designed quarterback runs (36) than Murray has attempts. Only 11 of Murray’s rushing attempts have been designed runs, per Sports Info Solutions charting.
Still, his rushing ability has been able to flip games. The Cardinals called one of those designed runs for Murray on a 4th and 2 in the red zone against the Bengals and it resulted in a touchdown. Later in the game, Murray had a 24-yard scramble that set up the game-winning field goal.
One of the concerns about Murray running was how he would hold up against NFL defenders, but the next big hit Murray takes in the open field would be his first. There might not be a player more aware of his surroundings than Murray, whether it be in the pocket or on a run. This was also an apparent trait in college (one reason the durability concerns were confusing), where Murray was hyper-aware of the nearest defender, who he can make miss, if he had room to slide, and where the sideline is.
Red Zone Troubles
The biggest cause for concern is what the Cardinals have done — or haven’t — inside the red zone. Arizona ranks 24th in points per red zone trip and 30th in touchdowns per red zone trip. A lot of the discussion early in the season surrounded decisions to forgo fourth and short attempts near the end zone for field goals. While that was troubling (and has since improved), the play calling on the first three downs was a bigger issue.
Arizona has consistently been forced into those fourth downs by plays on the first three downs that give the team a low probability of scoring. Take the nine plays that preceded Arizona’s three short field goals against the Ravens in Week 2 and try to figure out where the touchdown was supposed to come from.
Murray is only 2-of-9 on passes inside the 10 that have been thrown beyond the line of scrimmage and not enough of those throws are going into the end zone.
Some of the red zone troubles have started to be fixed. The Williams touchdown shown above was a well-designed play for a touchdown and Kingsbury has already shifted away towards short field goals, like the Murray touchdown run against Cincinnati on 4th and 2. More plays designed to get a receiver open in the end zone and more Murray runs in that area of the field could unlock one aspect that has held the Arizona offense back to this point.
Overall, the Cardinals are already 11th in yards per drive and 16th in points per drive and finishing more drives with touchdowns could be what takes the unit to the next level.
Looking Ahead
The Cardinals are starting to get on track, though the caveat of facing the Bengals and Falcons over the past two weeks certainly applies. But they’ll face a New York Giants defense in Week 7 that has been welcoming to opposing quarterbacks before two games against the San Francisco 49ers within three weeks with a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in between.
It might be too soon to suggest the Cardinals have what it takes to be one of the league’s most effective offenses, but there are already indicators this unit is far and away an improvement on what was put on the field in Arizona last season. We’ve already seen adjustments made from Kingsbury in personnel usage, play calling, and game management and we’ve gotten a glimpse of what could make Murray a successful dynamic quarterback.
Gradual improvement all-around is a good sign for what could come for this team throughout the remainder of the season and into next year when more roster upgrades on the offensive line and at receiver can be made. The Cardinals took a big swing in the offseason and the early returns are already promising with a significantly better outlook than what the team saw at this point last season.
