After flirting with each other last week, the Patriots and Stefon Diggs sealed the deal on Tuesday night, agreeing to a three-year, $69 million contract.
While it remains to be seen how real that contract total is, Diggs did get $26 million guaranteed, a good number for an older receiver coming off a serious knee injury.
This is something of a risk for the Patriots, but they needed to add a real No. 1 option to aid in Drake Maye‘s development.
Let's look at the fantasy outlook for Diggs, Maye, and the rest of the Patriots in the wake of this signing.
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Stefon Diggs 2025 Fantasy Outlook
The biggest initial issue for Diggs is health after he suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 of last season.
Shortly after the deal was signed, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Diggs was on track for Week 1, and that matches an earlier report from ESPN's Mike Reiss that Diggs was ahead of schedule in his rehab.
Of course, it makes sense for a free agent to get out as much good news about their recovery as possible, and Diggs is ultimately a 31-year-old receiver returning from a serious knee injury.
Even with the good reports, it cannot be taken for granted that he will be ready in Week 1 or that he will be 100% even once he gets back on the field.
What that 100% version of Diggs looks like in 2025 is another open question.
Diggs struggled over the back half of the 2023 season.
From Week 10 on (his final eight games), Diggs ranked 50th among qualified receivers in yards per route run despite ranking 19th in target rate per route.
Diggs was 97th among that group in yards per catch and 95th in yards per target.
His one season with the Texans was cut short, but it was promising.
He ranked seventh among all qualified receivers in ESPN's open score.
Diggs' ability to earn targets while playing with Nico Collins also highlights his ability to still get open.
On 141 pass plays with both Diggs and Collins on the field, Diggs earned a target on 22.3% of his routes.
That is not an elite number, but it would have ranked 33rd last season, and that is while playing with a receiver who ranked sixth in target rate per route in 2024.
Diggs will not have that level of competition in New England.
Hunter Henry led the Patriots in targets last season, and no receiver finished better than 60th in yards per route run.
Second-round rookie Ja'Lynn Polk finished dead last among qualified receivers in yards per route run.
Out of 103 receivers who ran at least 250 routes, Polk ranked:
- 103rd in yards per reception
- 103rd in yards per target
- 91st in target rate per route
- 103rd in catch rate
- 103rd in YAC per reception
But other than that…
It would make sense for the Patriots to keep adding receivers in the draft, but it is fair to expect Diggs to command a 25% or better target share if he is healthy.
25% of how many passing attempts is a good question in a team coached by Mike Vrabel — the Titans finished 31st, 31st, 30th, 25th, 30th, and 30th in passing attempts under Vrabel — but this is a good landing spot in terms of target share opportunity for Diggs.
Drake Maye 2025 Fantasy Outlook
If Diggs is healthy and getting open, that should mean good things for second-year quarterback Drake Maye.
Maye had moments of 2QB viability as a rookie, thanks in large part to his legs.
He finished eighth among passer rating qualified quarterbacks in rushing fantasy points per game, adding 421 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground in 13 games.
Unfortunately, he was 30th in passing fantasy points per game, unsurprising given the receiver options highlighted above.
Even with that receiver group, Maye showed well as a passer, ranking ninth in completion rate over expected according to Next Gen Stats.
Not to be that guy, but Maye also seemed like a guy who has “it” when watching him, again despite that supporting cast.
Volume concerns will keep him out of the QB1 conversation, but the addition of Diggs, along with some help along the offensive line, should put Maye squarely in the 2QB conversation in 2025 with upside for more if that rushing sticks around and he takes a big step forward as a passer.
