• Leonard Fournette is the slam-dunk #1 RB option of the week
  • Mark Andrews should expect a nice share of targets against Seattle
  • As long as Will Fuller hangs onto the football, deep balls are headed his way

In advance of Sunday’s games, I wanted to isolate specific advantageous matchups that could be interesting from a fantasy and prop perspective. FYI, all target share figures are based on one score game situations only (8 points or less margin).

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Running Backs

Carlos Hyde

  • The Colts rank 28th in DVOA run defense and have allowed the second-highest explosive run percentage in the NFL.
  • Hyde, shockingly, has the second-highest success rate in the NFL among RBs at 59%.

Dalvin Cook

  • The Lions are 17th in the NFL in DVOA against the run but haven’t faced anyone like Cook so far this year.
  • Cook has faced the toughest schedule of run defenses in the NFL this year and has faced four run defenses in the top eight of the NFL.
  • Cook is averaging 5.4 yards per carry against a schedule of defenses that have given up only 3.9 ypc in aggregate.

Josh Jacobs

  • The Packers are 26th in DVOA against the run. 
  • This spread has dropped significantly, and odds have increased at this being a highly competitive game.
  • Jacobs put up 4.7 and 4.4 ypc against the Bears and Vikings, who rank in the top eight in run defense.

Leonard Fournette

  • Cincinnati is 27th in DVOA run defense and has allowed the highest percentage of explosive run plays in the NFL. Fournette has shown explosiveness all season.
  • The Bengals have allowed the highest target share to RBs in the passing game in the NFL. They also rank 29th in yards per attempt to RBs in the passing game.
  • Fournette has been heavily involved in the passing game this year, averaging 6 targets and 4.5 receptions per game.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram

  • Engram is easily the best option at TE this week as long as he is healthy.
  • Arizona has been torched all year by opposing TEs, allowing the third-highest target share to TEs and are 26th in yards per attempt allowed.

Mark Andrews

  • The Seattle defense has allowed a 23% target share to a schedule of opposing TEs who in aggregate have been targeted 16% on the season.
  • Seattle has only played one offense that targets TEs in the top 14 in the NFL, but the Seahawks have allowed the ninth-highest TE rate.
  • Baltimore targets its TEs the second-most in the NFL at 41% and Andrews has received 59% of their TE receptions.

Wide Receiver

Will Fuller

  • The Colts pass defense has been susceptible to the deep ball, ranking 24th by DVOA stats. Deshaun Watson has attempted the second-highest number of deep balls in the NFL and has the fourth-best accuracy percentage 
  • Fuller is the Texans’ best deep-ball threat and has 284 air yards targets the last two weeks.

Darius Slayton

  • Slayton was #1 in the NFL in Week 5 in average targeted air yards with 19.7 and ninth last week with 16.5. He just happened to be facing the Vikings and Patriots stellar secondaries the last two games.
  • Daniel Jones has not been afraid to throw the deep ball, ranking with the seventh-highest deep ball attempt percentage among all NFL QBs this year.
  • Slayton could be hurt with the return of Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram but could be a nice cheap WR option this week.

D.K. Metcalf

  • This is a great matchup for Seattle WRs with the Ravens bringing a bad secondary that has been burned with the eighth-most explosive pass plays allowed.
  • Russell Wilson is the most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL and the Ravens rank 26th in deep ball defense according to DVOA.
  • Maybe Marcus Peters can make a difference, but he just got burned against the Seahawks on a long TD to Metcalf two games ago.