T.A.'s Week 7 Westgate Supercontest Picks

For purposes of these articles I will list the contest line as well as the most current line using 5Dimes sportsbook. I will note if the current line is playable or not. I have personally bet all of these sides unless otherwise noted. As always, shop for the best lines.

Current NFL Record:

YTD Supercontest Picks: 14-15-1 (48%)
Thursday Night Football: 6-1 (86%)
Other Sunday Posted Picks: 4-2 (67%)
All Posted Picks: 24-18-1 (57%)

Houston +1 at Indianapolis (Current Line: +1-110 5Dimes)

I hate fading the Colts because I absolutely love their coaching staff and philosophy, but this is a great matchup for the Texans.
The Colts run defense ranks 28th in DVOA and the Texans are third in success rate running the ball overall. Surprisingly, after a couple of uninspiring seasons, Carlos Hyde is second among all NFL running backs in success rate. And we know how well Deshaun Watson runs the ball when needed at QB.
The Texans also are second in the highest percentage of explosive run plays and the Colts have allowed the second-highest rate of explosive runs.
Watson has been effective with the deep ball this season, ranking fourth in accuracy and he has attempted deep passes at the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Colts secondary has been susceptible to the deep ball — ranked 24th by DVOA. And yes, the Colts will get back Rock Ya-Sin but Malik Hooker, Kenny Moore, and Pierre Desir are either out or questionable.
On the other side of the ball, we all know how good that Indy OL is right now. They haven’t faced any real tough tests in terms of opposing pass rushes and the best pass rush they have faced is the Falcons who rate 16th according to PFF. The Texans pass rush comes in rated fourth.
There is a perception that teams coming off a bye week have a big advantage but that just hasn’t been true of late. Since 2017, home teams off a bye are 7-18-3 ats (28%) and home teams against a division opponent is 1-7-1 ats. 46-63-4 (42%) ats if you expand it since 2011 when the new CBA was in place limiting bye week practices. Why does the new CBA matter in terms of bye weeks? The CBA states that a bye week must include at least four consecutive days off, including Saturday. Prior to 2011, home teams were 53-45-2 (54%) ats. I think teams are treating the bye week more as a mini-vacation and home teams off a bye are overvalued in the market.

Minnesota -1 at Detroit (Current Line: -2 -115 5Dimes)

Will the Lions bounce back off a short week following that brutal loss with all of the referee issues? You never know what emotional hangover a team like the Lions will endure.
Minnesota has leaned on Dalvin Cook and the running game, ranking No. 1 in highest explosive run percentage and third in yards per carry. They have done this against the toughest schedule of run defenses in the NFL.
The Lions are far from a good run defense ranking 26th in adjusted line yards and 25th in open field yards allowed. That’s a tough spot against the explosiveness of Cook and Alexander Mattison.
Historically, Kirk Cousins’s splits against top 10 DVOA pass defenses and good pass rushes versus teams that don’t put much pressure on opposing QBs and don’t defend the pass well are stark. The Lions come in with the 25th ranked pass rush and the 10th rated pass defense according to DVOA. If the Lions don’t put pressure on Cousins, he can put up some good numbers, as he is fifth in passer rating from a clean pocket.
Matthew Stafford has lived off explosive pass plays this year, ranking first in percentage of deep balls thrown and they have produced the second-most explosive pass plays this season. However, the Vikings have been excellent limiting the deep ball, ranking top 10 in DVOA deep passes allowed and explosive pass plays allowed.

Buffalo -17 vs Miami (Current Line: -17 -110 5Dimes)

Miami at home last week was lucky to cover against the second-worst team in the NFL in the Washington Redskins. They needed a last-second touchdown drive and somehow, because of this, I have heard all week how they should cover against Buffalo.
I just don’t understand how Miami is going to score double digits against this Buffalo defense. Outside of facing the best defense so far this year in the Patriots, Miami has faced the 22nd, 24th, 25th, and 27th ranked DVOA defenses this season. Against New England, they did not score and put up a measly 3.0 yards per play. Against all those other bad defenses, on average, they have put up 10.5 points per game and 4.3 yards per play. Those defenses, outside of their games against Miami, have allowed on average 25 points per game. That just tells you how awful this offense has been.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting, and we know he is a walking turnover. If Buffalo turns Miami over once or twice, that could be the difference between covering this spread.
Sure, the Bills aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but they can run the ball and throw it deep. Buffalo is eighth in DVOA run offense and Miami is 30th in run defense.
Josh Allen has attempted the 12th most deep balls in the NFL and although he hasn’t been very accurate, he might have some success against a defense that is 30th defending deep balls.

Seattle -3 vs Baltimore (Current Line: -3 -110 5Dimes)

This should be a fun game between two explosive offenses.
To me this comes down to Russell Wilson being able to exploit the weak Ravens secondary more than Baltimore can exploit Seattle on the ground.
Baltimore is 26th defending the deep ball and 25th in explosive pass plays allowed. They also are 26th in deep ball DVOA and Wilson is No. 1 in the NFL in deep ball accuracy.
The Ravens are obviously going to run the ball, but Seattle has been just ok defending the run, ranking 21st in DVOA run defense. They have done a nice job limiting explosive runs, with only 10 allowed this season.
Where there is most concern on defense for Seattle is defending TEs. Expect a good game from Mark Andrews.
I think Seattle will be able to control the run game enough and their offense will score enough to force Lamar Jackson to try and beat them through the air.

Chicago -3.5 vs New Orleans (Current Line: -4 -110 5Dimes)

This line has been pushed up to 4 and I am still ok taking Chicago at this number
I liked the Bears even before the news of the Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook injuries. Of course, I like it even more with Teddy Bridgewater losing two of his top three weapons.
Bridgewater has been excellent but when he has faced pressure, he ranks 26th in passer rating. He will be facing the Bears pass rush who will be motivated after getting shredded by the Raiders in London.
Based on the Saints being cautious with Kamara and Cook, I think they didn’t want to expose those guys to this physical defense. After four straight wins and this being a back to back road game, this may be an emotional letdown spot for the Saints