• Washington must go away from such a run-heavy first down trend of late & throw deep
  • Dalvin Cook should feast on a poor Washington run defense
  • Hold your nose and pray when picking this ats side

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WAS Offense vs MIN Defense:

 

  • This Washington offense is as boring as you will find in the NFL.
  • In the first five weeks, Washington passed the ball 60% of the time in one-score game situations.
  • In the last two weeks under Callahan, Washington reversed that ratio and are now passing on only 38% of the time in close game situations.
  • Amazingly, the last two games, Washington has run the ball 83% of the time on first down!
  • Adrian Peterson has taken advantage with 43 carries for 199 yards in the last two games (4.6 ypc).
  • Unfortunately for Washington, the Vikings are seventh in DVOA run defense and have allowed the fifth least explosive runs.
  • The only real weapon for Washington this season has been WR Terry McLaurin who rates as the sixth-best WR in the NFL, according to DVOA metrics.
  • An area where the Vikings “struggle” a bit is defending the pass on first downs, ranking 23rd in DVOA. Otherwise, the Vikings defense has been solid as the 14th-rated pass defense.
  • The problem is if Callahan sticks to his establish the run strategy on early downs, Washington won’t be able to take advantage. If he wises up and calls a couple play-action passes on first down, I think Case Keenum has a chance to hit a couple big plays to McLaurin.
  • Keenum is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt against a schedule of pass defenses that has allowed 8.5 on average this season.
  • The Vikings have allowed 6.1 yards per attempt against a schedule of opposing offenses that have averaged 6.8 yards per attempt. That minus-12% figure allowed against opponent average is sixth-best in the NFL.
  • Don’t expect a bunch of big plays from Keenum and that Redskins offense unless Callahan becomes less predictable.
  • The Vikings defense has allowed the highest target share to TEs in the NFL at 28% but have done an excellent job limiting those targets. They rank as the 10th stingiest defense against TEs from a success standpoint and have allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt to TEs in the NFL. They have done this against a strong set of opposing TEs including Darren Waller, Jimmy Graham, Austin Hooper, and Zach Ertz.

 

MIN Offense vs WAS Defense:

  • This will be all about Dalvin Cook tonight against a weak run defense in the Redskins.
  • Washington ranks 18th in DVOA run defense and 25th in success rate allowed.
  • Washington’s defense has allowed 4.4 ypc against an aggregate set of run offenses that average 4.0 ypc this season.
  • Minnesota is seventh in DVOA run offense and will be the second-best run offense the Redskins will have faced this season. Looking deeper into Washington’s schedule and they faced the Giants who are eighth in run offense, but that figure incorporates games that Saquon Barkley has played and he did not face the Redskins. They also faced the 13th rated run offense in San Francisco last week but that was in the rain on a muddy field and was difficult to run. In reality, the only true good run offense Washington has faced is the second-ranked Dallas Cowboys, who ran all over Washington. The Cowboys ran for 213 yards and 6.3 ypc.
  • The Vikings will be missing Adam Thielen and will incorporate much more 12, 21, and even 22 personnel, I suspect. Expect both Kyle Rudolph and rookie Irv Smith Jr. to be featured in the passing game, especially off play-action. Cousins is #1 in the NFL in QB rating off play-action.
  • Last week Cousins targeted Rudolph and Smith 12 times out of 34 pass attempts (35%). They combined to catch 10 balls for 118 yards and a Rudolph TD. Smith played a season high 41 snaps, or 56% of offensive snaps. I would be surprised if one or both Rudolph and Smith didn’t have good games tonight.
  • With Thielen out, Stefon Diggs will be Cousins’s No. 1 WR option but will most likely be covered by Quinton Dunbar, who surprisingly rates as the second-best CB in the NFL according to PFF. Olabisi Johnson will handle the No. 2 WR position with Thielen out after receiving eight targets last week. 
  • With Thielen out and facing a poor run defense, my expectation is to see a lot of Cook and Alexander Mattison early and often.

ATS Side I like tonight: Washington +16.5 (-110 5dimes):

My TNF ats streak was snapped last week, so I now sit 6-1 on the season. This is obviously a difficult matchup for Washington, with an interim coach on a short week. Historically, the edge always goes to the superior team on the short week.

The issue for me comes with the Thielen injury and the large 16.5 point spread. The current over/under is 41.5 and in searching for instances of a point spread of 16+ with a total of under 42 and the underdog has gone 10-6 ats since 2000. This obviously favors Washington but even further, I think with the rushing advantage and the fact that Minnesota is only going to have 4 WRs active, expect Cook and Mattison to run a lot and eat clock.

On the other side, my hope is that Callahan allows Keenum to run play-action on early downs and targets his WRs deep, but I doubt it. So, assuming he sticks to his run early and often mantra, the game will be shortened even further. I think this ends up being a lower score game and the Vikings will just want to get out of this game unscathed and not necessarily looking to run up a big score.

In addition, teams off a shutout the prior week typically are solid teams to back the following week. They come in motivated the next week and the point spread is normally slightly inflated. It’s not a strong play for me and you will have to suffer through bad offense from Washington, but I am going to hold my nose and take the 16.5.