T.A.'s Week 8 Westgate Supercontest Picks

For purposes of these articles I will list the contest line as well as the most current line using 5Dimes sportsbook. I will note if the current line is playable or not. I have personally bet all of these sides unless otherwise noted. As always, shop for the best lines.

Current NFL Record:

YTD Supercontest Picks: 15-19-1 (44%)
Thursday Night Football: 7-1 (88%)
Other Sunday Posted Picks: 4-3 (57%)
All Posted Picks: 26-23-1 (53%)

Jets +6 at Jacksonville (Current Line: +7-120 5Dimes)

This is a good matchup for the Jets. The Jags run the ball the 10th highest percentage in the NFL in one-score game situations. They lean heavily on Leonard Fournette.
The Jets rank as the sixth-best run defense according to DVOA.
This should force the Jags to pass much more than they’d like with Gardner Minshew, who has struggled lately. He has completed under 50% of his passes in back to back games.
We know the Jets blitz a ton with Gregg Williams and Minshew is 27th in the NFL in accuracy when under pressure.
A great trend I have followed for a while now that has been successful is underdogs of 3 or more off of a shutout loss going up against a non-division opponent is 47-10-2 (82%) ats since 1992. This trend went 4-0 last year and was a winner with the Redskins 16.5 on Thursday night against Minnesota.
The look-ahead line was Jacksonville -4, so this line has been inflated because of the Jets’ poor performance against perhaps one of the best defenses in recent memory. This is an overreaction.

Eagles +1.5 at Buffalo (Current Line: -2 -110 5Dimes)

The Eagles are another team I am backing while coming off a poor primetime game performance.
Buffalo is a run-heavy team that is going up against the strength of the Eagles defense, their run defense.
The Eagles have been awful defending the pass, but Josh Allen isn’t equipped to take advantage and pick apart this secondary.
The Bills defense has been good but the QBs they have faced have been embarrassingly bad. Buffalo is third in yards per pass attempt allowed but in aggregate their opponents have the second-lowest yards per attempt schedule on the season. Carson Wentz is the best QB they will have faced outside of Tom Brady.

Houston -6.5 vs Oakland (Current Line: -6.5 -120 5Dimes)

Deshaun Watson should feast on this bad Oakland secondary.
Oakland is 30th in DVOA pass defense and 31st in defending the deep ball.
The Raiders have allowed 8.6 yards per attempt but have faced a schedule of QBs which has only thrown for 7.1 on average this season. Mahomes, Rodgers, and Cousins threw for 73% and 10.9 yards per attempt with 10 TDs and 0 INTs against the Raiders.
Josh Jacobs has been excellent this season and he hasn’t practiced this week. Without him, the Raiders will struggle to maintain balance on offense.
Between playing in Minnesota, Indianapolis, London, and Green Bay over their past four games, the Raiders’ travel schedule has been brutal. At some point, the cumulation of this travel will have a big effect.

SF -5.5 vs Carolina (Current Line: -5.5 -110 5Dimes)

These are two teams I thought were undervalued prior to the season and both have come through so far.
Kyle Allen has faced an easy set of pass defenses and will be facing a much tougher test Sunday. So far Allen has faced a schedule of pass defenses that rank 26, 22, 25 and 9. The one that is ninth is the Jags and those numbers include games with Jalen Ramsey. Even in that game against Jacksonville, without Ramsey, Allen was 17-30 for 181 yards and a poor 6.0 ypa. Allen has thrown for 7.4 ypa against an easy pass defensive schedule. Now he has to face the #2 rated Niners pass defense.
Allen has clearly shown a struggle holding onto the football against good pass rushes, with an astonishing six fumbles in four games. Against a fierce Niner pass rush, that risk of a turnover will be there all game.
The Niners will force much more out of Christian McCaffery and as great as he has been, he has struggled against the best run defense he has faced in two games against Tampa. He has run for only 68 yards on 38 carries. In those games, he only caught six passes for 42 yards. The Niners could be a test for CMC.
The Niners should be able to run all over this Carolina defense which ranks 30th in DVOA. The Panthers are 21st in adjusted line yards on defense and 29th in open field yards. Matt Brieda and his fifth-highest explosive run percentage in the NFL should be able to find a few big runs.

GB -4 at KC (Current Line: -4 -119 5Dimes)

This is a fairly basic handicap with all of the injuries for the Chiefs.
I wasn’t going to touch this game even with Patrick Mahomes being out only because I am that scared of Andy Reid with extra time.
I do think the Chiefs will score because of those weapons but there is a ceiling to how much Matt Moore can do and the Packers are the sixth-rated DVOA pass defense. This isn’t a case of facing a middle of the road team down a QB.
But what got me on the side of the Packers is the additional cluster injuries to the Chiefs defense. Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Kendall Fuller are all out. That is too much to overcome with a good defense let alone what the Chiefs have shown so far and now they are facing Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense with MVS and Geronimo Allison healthy.
Jones is by far the best Chiefs pass rusher with an 83 PFF grade and the next best DL sits at a 68. Clark and Jones are 1-2 on the Chiefs in pressures with 23 and 22 respectively.
Again, I could look past some of these injuries if they were isolated and/or they didn’t have to face Rodgers. It’s just too much for me to pass up