T.A.'s Week 9 Westgate Supercontest Picks

For purposes of these articles I will list the contest line as well as the most current line using 5Dimes sportsbook. I will note if the current line is playable or not. I have personally bet all of these sides unless otherwise noted. As always, shop for the best lines.

Current NFL Record:
YTD Supercontest Picks: 18-21-1 (46%)
Thursday Night Football: 7-1 (88%)
Other Sunday Posted Picks: 5-4 (55%)
All Posted Picks: 30-26-1 (54%)

Jaguars +1 vs Houston (Current Line: +1.5 -110 5Dimes)

I have been backing the Texans the last few weeks and they seem to play just well enough to not cover. They lost in Indy when they totally outplayed the Colts but couldn’t convert in the red zone then won but didn’t cover at home against Oakland last week.
This comes down to the injury report for the Texans that I think are too devastating to overcome this week.
Will Fuller is out again this week and historically Deshaun Watson’s passing numbers with Fuller out of the lineup are much worse than when he plays. Heading into this season, in 11 games with Fuller on the field, Watson has averaged 9.0 yards per attempt as compared to only 7.7 with Fuller out.
On defense, the Texans have been ravaged by injury. J.J. Watt being out for the season is devastating. The Texans are eighth in pass rush grade, according to PFF. With the Watt injury, there goes with him 52 pressures as well. His 52 pressures account for 33% of Houston’s total pressures on the defense. Without Jadeveon Clowney on that defense anymore, there really is no other pass rusher to make up for Watt’s absence. Not only is losing Watt a major impact but so is the cluster injuries in an already weak secondary. Bradley Roby, Tashaun Gipson, and Lonnie Johnson have already been declared out and starting CB Jonathan Joseph is questionable.
It is so bad in the secondary that right now the starting group includes Keion Crossen at CB (36.1 PFF grade), Gareon Conley (54.2), Jahleel Addae (49.7), and Justin Reid (69.4). Houston has no CBs rated in the top 94 in pass coverage in the NFL.
Gardner Minshew is 14th in the NFL in passer rating with a clean pocket and with Watt out it should be assumed that Houston will not be able to generate a consistent pass rush. Minshew’s accuracy percentage goes from 54% to 78% when going from under pressure to a clean pocket. That 24% difference in accuracy is fourth-highest in the NFL.
Minshew is No. 1 in the NFL in QBR on throws over 15 yards and is fourth in passer rating on deep throws. Without a big pass rush, Minshew should have plenty of time to find D.J. Chark and Chris Conley deep against this secondary. Chark is fifth in the NFL in deep targets and sixth in reception percentage.

Browns -3 at Denver (Current Line: -4 -110 5Dimes)

I took this personally at -2.5 and in the contest it’s -3 but am ok still taking it up to -4. Otherwise, I would pass at a higher number here.
When this line re-opened after the announcement of Brandon Allen starting at Browns -2/2.5 I thought for sure this line should be in the 4/5 range. It took a couple of days but here we are.
Allen has not thrown an NFL pass in the regular season but in the preseason has thrown six TDs and a whopping 11 INTs on 226 attempts (4.8%).
It’s not as if Allen is stepping into a high-powered offense with weapons that can make life easy as the Chiefs have with Matt Moore. The Broncos are 25th in DVOA offense, traded their second-best WR weapon in Emmanuel Sanders and have an OL ranked 14th in pass blocking efficiency. Expect the Broncos to lean on their running game with Royce Freeman and Philip Lindsey.
I don’t expect the Browns to dominate on offense by any means, but I think the fact they finally don’t have to face a star QB will help shape their game plan. The Browns have faced three of the top 10 and five of the top 15 DVOA offenses this season so this is a welcome relief. Expect lots of Nick Chubb against the 14th ranked run defense. Chubb has faced four of the top eight run defenses in the NFL this year. He has faced three teams ranked 15-23rd in San Francisco, Baltimore, and Seattle and in those games, Chubb has run 56 times for 374 yards (6.7 ypc) and 5 TDs.
The Denver defense excels defending teams using 11 personnel, ranking third-best against both the run and pass in the NFL. However, against teams utilizing 12 personnel, they are 13th worst defending the run and 14th defending the pass. The Browns only use 12 personnel a league-average 19% of the time but are top 5 in the NFL in success rate when they do utilize that personnel.
In a similar situation against Trevor Simien/Luke Faulk and the Jets in Week 2, the Browns dominated in a 23-3 win. Not that I expect that big of a win on Sunday but as long as the Browns can get to 20 points, I feel comfortable covering the spread.

Bills -9.5 vs Washington (Current Line: -9.5 -123 5Dimes)

I would make sure to buy this to 9.5 up to -125, otherwise -10 -110 should be ok
At this point, the Redskins with Dwayne Haskins would be the only team I would lay this much with the Bills. I made the mistake of laying the big number against Miami two weeks ago and that did not go well.
Really this is just a fade of Haskins. I don’t believe he has a shot to do anything in this game and he has been just plain awful in his limited action in the preseason as well in the two games of regular season action so far. He has led 12 drives against the Giants and Vikings and in those drives, the Redskins have scored six points on two field goals, 4.2 yards per play, 4 INTs, 5 punts and 7 total first downs. They have recorded a first down on a minuscule 14.8% of total plays. To put that figure in perspective, the Jets are last in first downs per play this year in the NFL at 23.7%. He has thrown an INT on 4 of 22 total pass attempts, or an atrocious 18.1%.
In a cold and windy Buffalo home field, I can’t imagine his accuracy and carelessness with the football will improve.
On offense, the Bills do have a big advantage in the run game against Washington. Buffalo ranks third-best in run success rate and have run for the eighth-highest explosive run percentage against a Washington defense that is 27th in success rate allowed on the ground. The Bills have a particular advantage at the line of scrimmage, with the highest Adjusted Line Yards on offense against a Washington run defense which is 29th in Adjusted Line Yards allowed, per Football Outsiders.

Steelers +1 vs Indianapolis (Current Line: PK -110 5Dimes)

I like Pittsburgh here mainly due to their defense and the injury to T.Y. Hilton.
On offense, the Steelers really do two things, run the ball and Mason Rudolph likes to attempt deep throws. The Colts run defense ranks 29th in DVOA and has allowed the second-highest percentage of explosive run plays. No James Conner and Benny Snell is a concern for Pittsburgh but as someone who believes the offensive line accounts for a majority of a team’s run offense, I am perfectly fine relying on Jaylen Samuels if he is the only healthy RB.
Rudolph attempts the fourth-highest percentage of deep throws in the NFL and the Colts are 21st defending the deep ball. The Colts secondary has been a patchwork effort this year, have allowed the second-most yardage per game and are 22nd in DVOA to No. 1 WRs. JuJu Smith-Schuster should be able to shine on Sunday.
The Colts have been really efficient on offense this year with the second-best drive success rate in the NFL. They will be facing the second-best pass rush in the NFL and Jacoby Brissett is 21st in the NFL in accuracy percentage when facing pressure.
The biggest factor for the Colts will be the loss of Hilton. In the last two seasons, Hilton has missed three games and the Colts have lost all three. Last season in 14 games with Hilton, Andrew Luck completed 69% of his passes with 32 TDs, 10 INTs, and 7.3 ypa. In two games without Hilton, Luck completed 60%,7 TDs, 5 INTs, and 6.5 ypa. Based on passer rating, Luck had his third- and sixth-worst games on the season without Hilton. In six games with Hilton, Brissett has completed 68% of his passes with 11 TDs, 2 INTs, and 7.2 ypa. In the one game he missed this year, Brissett had his worst game completing only 52% of his passes with 5.7 ypa. And that came against the 28th ranked pass defense at home against the Raiders. Hilton clearly has a major impact on the Colts offense.

Tampa +6 at Seattle (Current Line: Tampa +5 -110 5Dimes)

I hit +7 as soon as this line as soon as this was released on Monday. I thought this line would be 4.5 so was shocked to see 6.5 and 7 out there
Seattle is playing way above their stats and with just a +12-point differential, Seattle should have won 4.3 games based on Pythagorean expectation. With 6 wins, Seattle has 1.7 wins above what should be expected. Seattle has a poor point differential against a schedule of opponents with five teams under .500. Based on net success rate, Seattle has played the ninth-easiest schedule in the NFL. Regression against a much tougher schedule is on its way.
Tampa, on the other hand, has a respectable point differential of -16 and an expected win total of 3.1 games. Tampa is 2-5 so they have underachieved by 0.9 wins. They have done this against a schedule of opponents with six teams at .500 or better. Based on net success rate, Tampa has faced the third-toughest schedule in the NFL so far.
Tampa is 1-3 in one-score games, including a brutal loss last week in Tennessee which was decided due to a terrible call by the referee on an apparent fumble recovery for TD. In addition, Matt Gay missed a chip shot FG that should have beaten the Giants in Week 3. If Tampa had won those games and entered sitting 4-3 instead of 2-5, what is the perception and spread on this game? Probably closer to 3.
In terms of matchup, this looks to be a good one that favors the Bucs. Seattle is notorious for running the ball at all cost and the Bucs are the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. They have this ranking even against a tough set of good run offenses including Christian McCaffery twice, the 49ers, and Saints. On a yards per carry basis, Tampa has faced the second-toughest schedule in the NFL. In one-score game situations, Seattle has run the ball the fourth-highest percentage of the time and that should be music to the Tampa defenders’ ears. In addition, Seattle center Justin Britt is out for this game. Britt is a top 20 graded center overall by PFF and is eighth in run blocking. That’s a scary proposition when having to face Ndamukong Suh.
On offense, Tampa should be able to move the ball at will against this poor Seattle defense. Seattle ranks 23rd in DVOA against both the pass and run. The Seahawks pass rush is even worse, ranking 30th by PFF. As long as Jameis Winston doesn’t turn the ball over — don’t hold your breath too long — the Bucs should be able to easily cover this game.