Just like last week, there was a razor-thin margin between the top-two fantasy scores (one point). This time it was the highly-correlated duo of Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (40.2) and his QB, Russell Wilson (39.2). Third and fourth were clustered close behind within five points as Christian McCaffrey (37.6) and Mike Evans (36) went off again. Jimmy Garoppolo edged out the rest of the field with his best week of the season (28).
Another Buccaneers shootout led to some absurd WR performances, with Tyler Lockett earning his 40.2 points on 18 targets, going 13/152/2. This is only his second game over 18 points this year, having come in as a WR2 in five of nine. The problem is not his efficiency, as coming into Week 9 he was averaging five Fantasy Point Over Expectation per game. His targets are to blame, only 6.8 per game before this week.
Weeks 2-3 were quite promising, with 12 and 14 targets respectively, but all other weeks had been seven or fewer in this efficient Seahawks passing game that tends to spread the ball around and pass only when they are forced to.
His target market share is only 26% even after this game where it spiked to 43%. In a game that ended with 74 points and playing against the Buccaneers' top rush defense, Seattle actually passed enough to support another top-10 WR with D.K. Metcalf getting 6/123/1 on nine targets, good for 27 points. Lockett is elite and so is his QB, but this was an outlier game. Metcalf is having a great rookie year, so I don’t see Lockett as the clear Alpha WR1 on this team, and I can’t trust Seattle to throw enough to give either one high-target counts, especially if Josh Gordon is also going to be added to the fray.
Russell Wilson is the first of three players returning to the Top 5 in Week 9. This is somehow only his second time here in spite of leading all QBs in fantasy points (he is second overall behind CMC) but that can be a little noisy with Seattle not yet having their bye. He earned 39.2 points going 378/5/0 on 29/43 attempts, adding a rush for 21 yards. He’s in the midst of an MVP caliber season with a 22/1 TD/INT ratio and averaging 25.5 fantasy PPG. He ranks tops in FPOE with 8.3 per game and has only had a negative FPOE twice this year.
My only concern with Wilson and his receiving weapons is Seattle’s old-school, run-first mentality. They have come out of their shell slightly this year in rush rate, fourth (50.1%), after leading the league last year with 55.6% with the next closest being 51%. However, they still prefer to hold Wilson back when leading rather than blowing teams out. Just last week, they took a 24-0 lead in Atlanta before letting them come back to score 20 in the second half, while the Seahawks only managed a field goal. Wilson had only 20 pass attempts for the game and only seven in the second half.
If the game flow allows for it, Coach Pete Carroll and OC Brian Schottenheimer will limit Wilson which can lead to some lower outputs. When they let him throw, he’s easily a top-two QB for the year, along with a healthy Patrick Mahomes.
Christian McCaffrey is back for the fourth time, and I doubt it will be his last. He rushed for 24/146/2 and added 3/20/1 receiving on only three targets. My previous week's analysis on CMC is still viable and he is clearly 2019’s Fantasy MVP. In matchups against non-TB Bucs teams, he has not scored lower than 27.5 points. He had his bye last week, yet still leads the entire league in fantasy points by over 20 and the next closest non-QB by over 40.
My only concern is that this was his season-low in targets with only three, and he has not exceeded five within his last three games. With Kyle Allen getting more experience as the starting QB, he may be getting more comfortable passing to his other options. McCaffrey’s floor is still the best in the game though, and I expect many to ride him to a fantasy championship this year.
Mike Evans has now made the top 5 in back-to-back weeks and for the third time this season with 12/180/1 on 16 targets. This Tampa Bay passing offense currently has two of the NFL’s top 4 scoring WRs with Evans in second and Chris Godwin in fourth. It has been hard to know which of them will do better but it simply doesn’t matter; start both. Evans has returned to his elite usage of past years, with target totals of 17, 12 and 16 over his last three weeks. He’s now averaging 6.2 receptions on 10.4 targets per game.
His catch-rate has been unsustainably high in the last two weeks as he’s come down with more than 82% of his targets from the inconsistent Jameis Winston, and I would expect it to regress. If his targets can stay in the teens though, there should be more ceiling weeks to come. Note that he will face the Saints cornerback Marshawn Lattimore again this year. Evans was held catchless on only three targets earlier this season and has not done well in that matchup in the past.
Jimmy Garoppolo concludes this week’s top 5, coming in well below the others at 28.9 with 317/4/0, having completed 28 of 37 attempts and adding two yards rushing. His best week by far, it is only his second time exceeding 17 points.This was a season-high in pass attempts (37) and well over his average (28.2).
The 49ers are lapping the field with an absurd rush rate of 58.9% this season. As I mentioned last week when RB Tevin Coleman made the list, San Francisco is running the ball well and currently undefeated with this strategy, so I don’t expect it to change anytime soon. It is good to see a ceiling game from Garoppolo and know that he is capable, but I’m not sure how we can ever predict a future spike in pass attempts with this team.
San Francisco did just acquire Emmanuel Sanders via trade with the Denver Broncos, and he has made an immediate impact as the 49ers' WR1. Perhaps now with a trustworthy WR in addition to the elite TE play of YAC beast, George Kittle, coach Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling will drift back towards a 50/50 ratio. I am more comfortable waiting to see it again from Garoppolo, as he is only 25th in PPG, but I do expect his floor and ceiling to be higher thanks to this instant chemistry with Sanders.
