Each week we use the free tools at Sharp Football Stats to find the best options for DFS stacks.
We had some big time chalk bust last weekend. We’re looking at you, Brian Hill and Miles Sanders. Barring late injury news, there doesn’t seem to be too many dirt-cheap options at running back this week but with values at the other positions, we can likely fit in whoever we want. There are 11 games on the main slate but just one game features a point total of over 50, so landing on the right stacks is going to be the way to find eternal GPP glory.
Game Stacks
The Atlanta-Tampa Bay game’s total is 51, but it moved down from 53 already. Jameis Winston ($6,200) will likely be the highest owned quarterback on the slate. He doesn’t necessarily bring the rushing floor other guys at his position bring, but the passing volume in that offense makes him an intriguing option week in and week out. Yes, you’ll have to deal with an interception (or four) but even in a game when he completed less than 60% of his passes and threw four picks, he scored over 20 DraftKings Points. He’s yet to have a game with under 25 passing attempts and he’s only had two under 35.
The Bucs run over 70% of their pass plays from 11 personnel. During the course of the season, so far, the Falcons have allowed a 51% pass success rate against 11 personnel which is tied for the second-worst mark on the year. They’ve been bad against wide receivers, in general.
That brings us to the two main receivers in the Bucs offense, Mike Evans ($7,300) and Chris Godwin ($7,200). The target concentration we see in this offense is incredibly valuable for DFS.
Knowing you’re basically guaranteed a 20% to 25% share of Winston’s targets with either wide receiver makes stacking simple. On the way back, you can go a couple of different ways. If you go the Julio Jones ($8,000) route, you’ll basically be paying down at every other spot in your roster, which is fine. Or, you can save the $1,500 and go with Calvin Ridley ($6,500). He just had his breakout game and will be owned but if you find a way to differentiate your lineup elsewhere, a game stack here is fine.
Team Stack
Drew Brees ($6,600) put up an absolute stinker in a great matchup two weeks ago but got back on track last week with a 21 DK Point performance. Since returning from his thumb injury, he hasn’t taken many deep shots. In fact, of his 78 pass attempts over the past three weeks, he’s only attempted six deep passes (7.7%).
Michael Thomas ($9,300) and Alvin Kamara ($8,200) are both in play this week. Over the past three weeks, they’ve accounted for 57% of the Saints targets and there’s no real reason to think that will change. New Orleans is tied for the sixth-highest passing rate at 70%, even when they’re ahead. Some people might be scared off Brees a bit because they are favored by 8.5 points, but it seems like that may be an overreaction.
You could even go full onslaught with the Saints DST ($3,300). Kyle Allen played like he was being controlled on Madden by my 14-month old son last week. He’s thrown at least one pick in each of the last four games, including multiple picks in two of those contests. Allen’s also taken 18 sacks in the last four games.
Contrarian Stack
Everyone who is on Twitter knows that Odell Beckham ($7,000) is due for positive TD regression. Having just one touchdown on nearly 90 targets is absurd levels of a bad run. He’ll likely see another 9-12 targets but it will come along with 25% ownership in many GPPs. The obvious leverage play is Jarvis Landry ($6,300). You know you’re living in a bizarro world when Landry is coming in with a three-game touchdown streak. Those words haven’t fit in the same sentence since early 2017.
Let’s not act like Landry is some schlub. He’s seeing almost the same exact target volume and there’s no other game in town. If Cleveland is going to steamroll the Dolphins, Landry and Beckham should factor in heavily. Why not go with the lower-owned option? Stacking either — or both — with Baker Mayfield ($5,900) is an easy way to get some differentiation into your GPP portfolio this weekend.
