As usual, I am going to take a dive into that week’s slate of games and try to dig up some trends. Hopefully, they give us an edge when making game selections each week.
Of course, trends are trends…until they’re not. Sometimes betting on the other end of a trend ending can be advantageous. The goal here isn’t to plant a flag based on a trend, rather to simply shine a spotlight on these trends that exist and talk through some of them as food for thought.
East Coast Russ
A good rule of thumb is to always bet on the Seahawks under Russell Wilson when they are either coming off a loss or playing on the East Coast. We get the latter here as the Seahawks travel to Philadelphia this week. Since drafting Wilson in 2012, the Seahawks are 17-6 in the Eastern Time Zone (15-7-1 ATS) with five consecutive wins.
That trend bodes well for a Seattle team that is an underdog this weekend. Getting points when traveling east under Wilson, Seattle is 6-2-1 against the number with six outright wins, including four in a row.
In early kickoffs traveling east, Seattle is 11-4 straight up (9-5-1 ATS), but are a healthy 5-1 against the line as underdogs in that scenario.
If you’re into betting team totals, Seattle has scored at least 24 points in seven consecutive trips east and in 12 of their past 13 games.
Browns as Rare Huge Favorites
Cleveland comes into this Sunday as 10.5 point favorites against the Dolphins. Being favored at all hasn’t been something the Browns are familiar with since returning to the league in 1999, but giving away double-digit points is something they are more unaccustomed to.
This is just the third time the Browns have been double-digit favorites since returning to the league in 1999 and Sunday is the second-largest point spread with the Browns as a favorite since being an 11.5 favorite against the 49ers in Week 17, 2007.
For Miami, this is the 12th consecutive game the Dolphins have been an underdog, matching their longest streak as a franchise. This also marks the seventh time this season that the Dolphins have been getting double-digit points, matching the 2009 Lions for the most such games for an underdog through their first 11 games of a season. A ray of sunshine here is that Miami has managed to cover in their past three games getting double-digit points.
Tampa Bay Visiting Atlanta
The Buccaneers traveling to Atlanta to face the Falcons is a smorgasbord of trends. To start things off, Tampa Bay is a league-worst 2-8 against the spread this season, failing to cover in any of their past six games. They haven’t beat Atlanta in any of their five previous games played and haven’t been favored against the Falcons since the 2015 season.
Although they are 3-7 on the season, the Bucs have at least made losing as fun as possible for us by playing in high-scoring games. Eight consecutive Bucs games have gone OVER the game total, with an average score of 63.5 points scored. All eight of those games have featured 50 or more combined points, with six of the eight reaching at least 55 combined points. The Buccaneers have allowed 27 or more points in eight consecutive games, matching the longest streak for a team in the league since the 1970 merger with the 2016 Browns and the 2001 Colts.
These two teams are fond of shootouts as well. The OVER has hit in five of the six meetings between these teams over the three previous seasons with 54 or more points scored in five of those games, including 66 and 63 point affairs a year ago.
The one wrench in going all in there is that the Falcons have had a reversal of defensive performance since coming out of their bye. After allowing a league-high 30 touchdowns defensively through eight weeks, the Falcons haven’t allowed a touchdown on any of the 21 possessions their opponent has had over the past two games. It’s the first time since 2006 that the Falcons have gone back to back games without allowing a touchdown. For what it is worth, they’ve never done that three games in a row.
Ho-Hum, New England has a Plethora of Positives
The Patriots win a lot of games under all conditions, but they have a few extra superlatives in their favor this week hosting the Cowboys. New England has arguably the greatest home field advantage in the league. Including the postseason, the Patriots have won 20 consecutive games at home. That is the fifth-longest winning streak at home in NFL history and one behind the franchise record of 21-straight wins at home set over the 2002-2005 seasons. The last team to win in New England was the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 of the 2017 season. During that run, they aren’t only good at winning, but also covering the spread, posting a 16-4 record against the line.
The Patriots seemingly beat everyone, but they are particularly strong at dominating NFC opponents. New England has a league-best 60-15 record against the NFC since 2001 when Tom Brady took over as the starter. In their past 13 games versus an NFC opponent, the Patriots are 11-2 straight up and against the spread. Their last home loss and failed home cover to an NFC team was that same game to the Panthers in 2017.
Inversely, the Cowboys are just 4-6 against AFC opponents since the start of the 2017 season and just 1-4 (1-3-1 ATS) against non-conference opponents on the road over that span, including a loss to the Jets earlier this season.
