Player Matchups To Exploit: Week 12

In advance of Sunday’s games, I wanted to isolate specific advantageous matchups that could be interesting from a fantasy and prop perspective. 

Running Backs

Philip Lindsay

• Prior to last Sunday’s game against the Vikings, there was a report from NFL Network that “the Broncos plan to ride Lindsay ‘harder’ beginning Sunday in Minnesota”.
• That report proved to be true as he received 16 carries as opposed to Royce Freeman’s 8 carries. He responded with a solid game, 67 rushing yards. What’s more impressive is he did this against the fifth-best DVOA run defense in the Vikings.
• Buffalo’s run defense ranks 27th in DVOA. Lindsay has faced five run defenses ranked in the bottom 10 of the NFL. In those games, Lindsay has averaged 14 carries for 68.6 yards and a 4.9 yards per carry. 
• If the assumption continues that Lindsay will get a larger share of carries similar to last week (66.6% vs 34.6% for Freeman) and those two RBs share 25.2 carries (the average number of carries in the five games against bottom 10 DVOA run defenses), then a stat line in the neighborhood of 17 carries for 82 yards is a solid baseline on Sunday.
• Denver ranks 10th in DVOA run offense and the Bills have only faced one top 14 run offense, the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles ran the ball 41 times for 218 yards (5.3 YPC). 
• The Bills have faced opposing rush offenses that on average have produced 3.85 YPC this season, far and away the worst schedule of run offenses in the NFL. They have allowed 4.4 YPC to those teams. This 14% YPC above expectations ranks as third-highest in the NFL.

Derrick Henry

 

• Henry gets to face the 30th ranked run defense in the Jaguars.
• Jacksonville was just gashed on the ground by the Colts, who ran for 264 yards on 36 attempts and a staggering 7.3 YPC.
• Jacksonville ranks dead last in allowing opponents to rush for a YPC that’s 20% above their opponent’s average expectation. The Jaguars have faced a schedule of opponents who rank sixth-best in YPC offense.
• Jacksonville has been burned by explosive runs, allowing the sixth-highest percentage in the NFL and they rank dead last in open field yards allowed. 
• The explosive runs are a problem against Derrick Henry who ranks third in the NFL with 24 runs of 10+ yards.

 

 

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz

 

• After a few slow weeks, Ertz has had back to back 11-target, 9-reception games against New England and Chicago. He has 197 receiving yards in the last two weeks.
• Seattle is 23rd in DVOA against TEs and has allowed the fourth-most yards to TEs in the NFL. If it weren’t for a few easy drops by Mark Andrews in Week 7, that yardage figure would be even higher.
• Seattle ranks 18th in target share to TEs but ranks 22nd in yards per attempt allowed at 7.9. This figure is a bit understated as they’ve faced a schedule of opposing TEs that rank 23rd in the NFL at 7.4. This premium yardage over expectation rates as the ninth-highest in the NFL.
• Seattle has faced a bunch of opponents who barely target their TEs. The Eagles target their TEs the second-most in the NFL. Excluding the Niners game when George Kittle sat out because of injury, the Seahawks have only faced three opponents who target their TEs in the top half of the NFL. The Ravens targeted TEs 11 times for 4 receptions and 69 yards in their Week 7 game against Seattle. As mentioned above, that figure is understated as Andrews dropped at least three easy catches. The Rams’ Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee were targeted 14 times with 10 receptions for 183 yards in their Week 5 game. Austin Hooper caught 6 passes for 65 yards in their Week 8 game against Seattle.

 

 

Ryan Griffin

 

• Griffin broke out with a monster game last week against the Redskins, catching 5 balls for 109 yards and a TD.
• Quietly Griffin has produced at least 4 catches and 50 yards in three of the last four games.
• Oakland has allowed the fourth-highest target share to TEs at 24% even though their opponents typically have targeted their TEs at 21%.
• Oakland has also allowed the fifth-most yards per game to TEs.

 

 

Wide Receiver

Jarvis Landry

 

• We have a good revenge game narrative here with Landry against his former team the Miami Dolphins.
• We also have Landry here because it’s a good matchup. The Dolphins rank dead last in DVOA pass defense, and that includes games with one of the better CBs in the NFL, Xavien Howard, who struggled this season. Howard is now out for the season as well as safeties Reshad Jones and Bobby McCain.
• Landry operates from the slot with 65% of his snaps run from the slot. Jomal Wiltz took over last week as the main slot DB and his overall coverage grade for the season is a 44, per PFF. 

 

 

Odell Beckham Jr.

 

• It is not an accident I have both OBJ and Landry listed here as good matchups.
• I think this is THE breakout game for OBJ as he gets to go against a secondary in Miami has allowed the second-highest percentage of explosive pass plays in the NFL. The Dolphins just got burned by John Brown last week for 9 catches and 137 yards plus 2 TDs.
• OBJ and the Browns have faced the toughest pass defensive schedule in the NFL when looking at opponent yards per attempt allowed. The Browns have faced zero DVOA pass defenses that rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL and the Dolphins rate dead last.
• OBJ won’t have to face Howard so I think the Browns will do everything they can to get at least one TD.

 

 

 

 

Julio Jones

 

• Hard to avoid Julio against a defense ranked 30th in DVOA pass defense, 31st in yards per game allowed to No. 1 WRs and 30th in deep passing DVOA.
• The Tampa defense is a true funnel defense towards the pass with a No. 1 rush defense. Why even bother trying to run against the best defense in the NFL when you can just throw all over this secondary?

 

 

Julian Edelman

 

• Edelman struggled last week with multiple drops against the Eagles.
• In a week where all we heard in the national media is how the Patriots offense is struggling, this is the type of game that historically Tom Brady produces a big game. And with Mohamed Sanu announced out and Philip Dorsett questionable, Edelman should see a ton of targets.
• When you analyze the QBs that Dallas has faced, it’s pretty remarkable how lucky they have gotten. Here is the list of QBs they have faced — Eli Manning, Case Keenum, Josh Rosen, Teddy Bridgewater, Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, and Jeff Driskel. To go even further, when they faced Rodgers and Cousins, they did so without both #1 WRs in Davante Adams and Adam Thielen. Dallas has faced an easy set of QBs, got lucky that they faced backups against New Orleans and Detroit and also didn’t have to face two of the 10 best WRs in the NFL.
• You can argue that outside of Michael Thomas, the best WR that they will have faced is Edelman coming up on Sunday. 
• Edelman lives in the slot where he has lined up on 67% of his snaps. The main slot DBs for Dallas are Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown. Brown has allowed an opposing passer rating of 101, a 73% catch rate and 1.11 yards per snap from the slot. Lewis has been better in the slot with a 53-passer rating allowed but his issue has been allowing yards after the catch. He has allowed the most YAC per reception out of the slot in the NFL at over 12.5.