When Richard Sherman became a free agent in 2018, he made a bet on himself. Coming off an Achilles injury, Sherman self-negotiated an incentive-laden contract with the San Francisco 49ers. The bet has paid off.
Despite missing last week’s game, Sherman has stayed relatively healthy in his nearly two seasons with the 49ers and when he was elected to the Pro Bowl earlier this week, he received a $1 million bonus and upped his 2020 salary by $1 million, per ESPN’s Field Yates. The 49ers have been one of the league’s best pass defenses and at age-31, Sherman is playing some of the best football of his career.
The Going Rate
Despite getting some accolades like the Pro Bowl nod, Sherman has not often been brought up in conversation for Defensive Player of the Year or even a discussion for the league’s best cornerback. This year, especially over the past week, the cornerback discussion has revolved around Stephon Gilmore of the New England Patriots and Tre’Davious White of the Buffalo Bills.
Both Gilmore and White are tied for the league lead with six interceptions on the season, while Sherman has just two. Gilmore is also tied for the league-lead in passes defensed with 18 while White is just behind him with 17. Sherman, meanwhile, ranks tied for 21st with 11.
Sherman, though, has made just as many plays on the ball when he’s gotten the opportunity. When looking at targets, Sherman has more passes defensed per target than both Gilmore and White, he’s just seen fewer targets overall.
| Player | Targets | Passes Defensed | Passes Defensed per Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Gilmore | 77 | 18 | 0.23 |
| Tre'Davious White | 77 | 17 | 0.22 |
| Richard Sherman | 43 | 11 | 0.26 |
Of course, Sherman or any other cornerback shouldn’t be punished by a lack of opportunity, especially when said player is on the field often. Like we’ve gone away from raw counting stats when analyzing offensive positions, more often relying on rate stats, we can do the same on defense. For that, we can use coverage snaps, which are tracked by Sports Info Solutions. Things like interceptions and passes defensed are the result of opportunity and if the ball isn’t getting thrown at a defender, he’s not able to accumulate those, though by preventing a ball getting thrown his way, he’s still likely doing his job quite well.
To judge the production given up by each cornerback, we’ll use Adjusted Yards allowed. Adjusted Yards is a pro-football-reference statistic that adjusts yards for touchdowns and interceptions.
| Player | Coverage Snaps | Targets | Adjusted Yards Allowed per Coverage Snap | Targets per Coverage Snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Davious White | 483 | 77 | 0.304 | 0.14 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 447 | 77 | 0.313 | 0.17 |
| Richard Sherman | 402 | 42 | 0.310 | 0.10 |
Among 36 cornerbacks with at least 400 coverage snaps this season, these are the top three in Adjusted Yards Allowed per coverage snap. Despite Sherman being the only cornerback of this trio to allow a touchdown this season, he’s been just as good as the other two on a per snap basis thanks to how often he deters opposing quarterbacks from throwing to the receiver in his coverage.
Sherman has a different responsibility than the other two by staying on one side of the field while both Gilmore and White often follow an opposing No. 1 receiver. The 49ers are also viewed as a Seattle spinoff zone coverage team, but they’ve played a ton of man coverage this season and lead the league in Quarters coverage, which adds a man-match element at the start of the play.
The aversion to Sherman isn’t just reputation based or due to a lack of talent at the other secondary positions. That case could be made last season when opponents threw at Sherman less often (0.09 targets per coverage snap) but he was slightly worse himself (0.78 AY/CS, still an above average number) and the other members of San Francisco’s secondary were significantly worse. The unit as a whole was 27th in DVOA against the pass. But this season, the likes of Ahkello Witherspoon, K’Wuan Williams, Emmanuel Mosely, and Jimmie Ward have also been fantastic in coverage.
Keeping an offense from throwing to one part of a field can be just an impactful as taking away an opposing No. 1 receiver. It's also not as if opponents are sacrificing a lesser part of a passing game to Sherman's side like the Green Bay Packers famously did in the opening game of the 2014 regular season. Sherman has been across from his share of top receiving targets this year.
Sports Info Solutions charting or cornerbacks only goes back to 2016 but this is easily Sherman’s top season post-peak-Legion of Boom. 2016 was his worst year in coverage (0.96 AY/CS) but even that was still better than the average corner this season (1.09). His injury-shortened 2017 was also pretty good (0.71) and as mentioned last season he allowed 0.78 Adjusted Yards per coverage snap. For some 2019 context, this season, Kenny Moore of the Indianapolis Colts ranks 36th among 137 cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps with 0.77 AY/CS.
How it’s getting done
Even with all these great numbers in 2019, Sherman isn’t completely dominating in a way a typical shutdown corner would. This season, Sherman has allowed a 62.8% completion percentage — well above those of Gilmore (44.2%) and White (46.8%) — but he’s kept a yards per target figure right around the other two.
Much of this has stemmed from the lack of big plays against him. Sherman has the 14th-lowest average depth of target against among 83 qualified cornerbacks, per Football Outsiders, and that’s compounded with the fourth-lowest average yards after the catch allowed at just 1.7 yards. San Francisco’s scheme can invite some shorter passes, but Sherman has been able to swallow those completions up before they turn into anything meaningful.
Testing Sherman deep is something that hasn’t been done often and hasn’t been successful when tried. Only six targets against Sherman have traveled at least 20 yards in the air and none of those passes have been completed.
As we look at value, that trade off of short completions and no big plays has been about the equivalent of what the league’s best shutdown corners have done by allowing a sub-50% completion rate on targets. It's an adjustment Sherman has made to his game, especially after the injury that might have cost him a step physically. He's made up for that by being a step quicker mentally. Sherman was never a burner at corner and smaller, shiftier receivers always gave him trouble, even at his peak. But by adjusting his game to playing tight coverage to deter throws and being right on top of receivers when throws are made and completed, he's returned to being one of the most valuable cornerbacks in the NFL — just in a slightly different way.
Looking Ahead
Sherman isn’t likely to be named Defensive Player of the Year, especially after missing a game, and he might not be the league’s best cornerback, either. But to leave him out of those discussions would be a mistake based on the way he’s played this season.
Most importantly, Sherman has bounced back to be one of the league’s most impactful secondary players and has been a key piece for one of 2019’s best pass defenses. That might not be something many expected after how his tenure ended in Seattle, but it’s a bet Sherman made on himself and he was right.
