The regular season has finally reached its conclusion, but fantasy football never stops going. Outside of Daily Fantasy sites, many of you likely play in some sort of fantasy league throughout the NFL Playoffs. There are many forms of playoff fantasy leagues, but the majority of you are in leagues that revolve around selecting a starting lineup and retaining players in those lineups as their teams advance. If you roster a player on a team that loses in the playoffs, you either lose that player, or have a limited number of transactions available to replace him moving forward.
Some of you may have a league that differs or has a variation of that initial structure. We’re going to offer enough here to allow you to form a strategy around your specific rules and rank every player, but for the crux of this post, we’ll be taking a top-down approach to those primary formats.
Working Back to Front
No matter your format, the main goal of fantasy playoff leagues is having the highest point total. That involves planning ahead and leveraging what you believe is going to happen versus what the field believes is going to happen. Whether you lose a player from an eliminated team or have a set number of moves to replace someone, you want to build your roster with the notion that you’re going to have as many players available as possible as the playoffs progress. You want to roster players on teams you believe are going to not only perform well and score the most fantasy, but also play on winning teams that you can get multiple games out of.
With that in mind, let’s take a quick look at the Super Odds for all the 2019 playoff teams…
2019 Super Bowl Odds
| Team | SB Odds |
|---|---|
| Ravens | +225 |
| Chiefs | +300 |
| 49ers | +350 |
| Saints | +350 |
| Packers | +700 |
| Seahawks | +900 |
| Patriots | +1800 |
| Bills | +3500 |
| Vikings | +4000 |
| Texans | +4000 |
| Eagles | +4500 |
| Titans | +7500 |
*Odds from Caesar’s Sportsbook
The Ravens are the most popular team to make it to and win the Super Bowl. If you believe the Chiefs make the Super Bowl, they are second and provide a direct pivot to those teams that are loading up on Ravens players, especially in offering a direct pivot to the sure to be popular quarterback option in Lamar Jackson in Patrick Mahomes.
In the NFC, San Francisco has the highest current odds, making the Ravens versus 49ers the chalky pick as a Super Bowl matchup. Since the NFL went to six playoff teams in 1990, we’ve had just seven Super Bowl matchups out of 29 between the two top seeds in each conference.
But betting on top seeds is relevant. The 49ers are favorites in the NFC, but are trailed closely by the Saints. The catch here is that the Saints play on Wild Card Weekend, potentially offering you an extra game with stud options such as Michael Thomas, Drew Brees or Alvin Kamara.
If playing players opening weekend, the Saints will be popular because they have the best odds among Wild Card teams to advance. Buyer beware for those backing Saints players winning the NFC, playoff seeding has a high correlation to who is playing into February.
The Saints falling down to the third seed in the NFC makes their road much tougher. Of the 58 Super Bowl teams mentioned above when the NFL playoffs expanded in 1990, 46 of those teams have been the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in their conference. The last team to reach the Super Bowl that played on Wild Card Weekend was the 2012 Ravens.
That immediately highlights a team like the Packers being undervalued. Whether or not you believe in the Packers standing toe-to-toe with the 49ers (who already blasted them 37-8 in Week 12) or the Saints, the Packers are an objectively better bet than the Saints to make the Super Bowl, despite having worse odds.
That also implies a team like Seattle — who has higher Super Bowl Odds as a No. 5 seed than a No. 3 seed in New England — is overvalued. Of those 58 teams previously mentioned, 55 of those teams have been a top-four seed, with just the 2010 Packers (six-seed), 2007 Giants (five), and 2005 Steelers (2005) making the big game as a team starting the postseason off on the road.
The Patriots dynasty is going to eventually reach its climax and their loss to the Dolphins pushed their 2019 odds into seventh here, despite being third in the AFC. Of the 10 times the Patriots have reached the Super Bowl in the playoff expansion era, they were the first or second seed in the AFC all 10 times.
Buffalo actually has higher odds than Houston — their first-round opponent — despite being underdogs in the game this Saturday. If playing players on the opening weekend, we want to target players we either believe are going to have a high amount of fantasy points and are going to advance. The Texans’ options fall into a sketchy bucket of both categories.
With those initial thoughts in mind, here are my overall playoff rankings with some thoughts on each position.
