Two minutes are left on the clock. The offense is down one score. Philip Rivers inevitably is ready to drop back to pass.
Like many memes, the idea behind it is baked in truth. Over the past five seasons, no quarterback has more passing attempts while trailing by one score than Rivers with 105. The next closest is Joe Flacco at 91. Rivers’s performance in that situation is almost as memeable as him being in the situation itself. He has one touchdown against eight interceptions on those throws and while we’re hesitant to use passer rating in almost any circumstance, Rivers’s 28.7 rating is worth noting.
All of that leaves a lasting image in our collective minds of Rivers either trailing to failing to get the job done at the end of games, but it also severely overshadows Rivers’s actual level of play throughout the remainder of the game. It’s also part of the reason why Rivers signing as a free agent with the Indianapolis Colts to reunite with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni has been widely viewed just as a thing that happened this offseason and not a significant move that has garnered more attention.
Even at 38 years old, Rivers was quite good for the Los Angeles Chargers last season and should be able to bring a high level of quarterback play for the Colts in 2020.
Rivers doesn’t have to be great to be an upgrade over the full season of Jacoby Brissett from 2019. Brissett finished as an average to below average quarterback with a positive play rate (percentage of plays that produced positive EPA) under 50%, per Sports Info Solutions. Rivers’s 2019 season would be a significant step up from what Indianapolis had at quarterback last year.
Philip Rivers vs Jacoby Brissett, 2019
| Player | Attempts | EPA | EPA/Att | Positive% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 591 | 44.2 | 0.07 | 51.2% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 447 | 5.5 | 0.01 | 47.9% |
Last year, Rivers finished 14th in EPA among quarterbacks and 12th in positive play rate. Among 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts, Brissett ranked 20th in EPA and 24th in positive play rate.
What really stands out as the difference came from plays without pressure from the pocket. Those are the types of those that are more stable from year to year and that’s where Rivers was still one of the best quarterbacks in the league during 2019. He finished fourth in EPA on those throws and sixth in positive play rate. It should be noted that Rivers had the third most attempts from a clean pocket, but that shouldn’t overlook how well he performed on those throws. For instance, he had higher EPA and a higher positive play rate than Tom Brady, who led the league in those attempts.
The interesting dynamic here with Rivers is how much pressure impacted him. This is true for every quarterback. Per SIS, only two quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes) finished with positive EPA on pass attempts under pressure last season. And while Rivers had a significant drop off, he was still one of the better quarterbacks when facing pressure. Among 26 quarterbacks with at least 100 passes under pressure, Rivers was 14th in EPA and 12th in positive play rate. But again, even being decent under pressure is still quite bad.
Rivers Clean Pocket vs Pressure, 2019
| Throw Type | Attempts | EPA | EPA/Att | Positive% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean Pocket | 401 | 109.2 | 0.27 | 58.9% |
| Pressure | 184 | -67.7 | -0.37 | 35.8% |
The good news there is that Rivers will now be behind one of the league’s better offensive lines and a group that might be the most talented Rivers has played with in his career. By ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate, which measures success against a pass rush in the first 2.5 seconds after the snap, Rivers will go from a team that ranked 20th in 2019 to the line that ranked third.
A strong offensive line, especially early in the snap plays right into Rivers’s strengths of a quick release time. Last season, Rivers threw his average pass in 2.63 seconds, which was the fifth-quickest rate in the league per NFL Next Gen Stats. Even behind a good-to-great pass blocking line, Brissett found himself trying to make plays on his own. His 2.93 average seconds to throw was the second-highest in the league below only Kirk Cousins, whose time was impacted by the number of long-developing rollouts used in the Minnesota Vikings offense last season.
Those factors played into Rivers and Brissett posting nearly identical sack rates in 2019 (5.4% for Rivers and 5.7%) for Brissett. Rivers also threw a higher percentage of his passes from a clean pocket (67.8%) than Brissett (62.9%), another sign toward quarterbacks controlling their sack and pressure rates. Rivers's ability to create his own clean pocket will only help behind a better offensive line.
Rivers’s quick release also didn’t hamper his effectiveness of pushing the ball down the field. Even with one of the quickest times to throw, Rivers had an 8.6 average depth of target per NFL Next Gen Stats, which was above the league average and in the same range of Patrick Mahomes. Meanwhile, Brissett had a bottom-third aDOT (7.9) despite his increased time in the pocket.
If there is one area of concern, it’s how effective Rivers’s deep ball can still be at age-39. He had at least a five-year low in on-target rate on passes that traveled at least 20 air yards, per SIS (charting goes back to 2015). His dropoff for 2019 looks even worse because he had a career-year throwing deep the year prior in 2018.
Philip Rivers Deep Attempts, 2015-2019
| Year | Attempts (%) | On-Target% | Comp% | EPA/Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 66 (10.0%) | 41.7% | 26.2% | 0.00 |
| 2016 | 64 (11.1%) | 54.0% | 31.8% | 0.25 |
| 2017 | 64 (11.1%) | 60.7% | 34.4% | 0.27 |
| 2018 | 54 (10.6%) | 58.0% | 40.7% | 0.57 |
| 2019 | 73 (12.4%) | 38.9% | 32.9% | 0.12 |
In a worst-case scenario, Rivers’s deep ball has lost its effectiveness. But there’s even some hope there. His completion percentage wasn’t much different from his non-2018 seasons and with potentially more consistent deep threats, like T.Y. Hilton, Rivers could at least see value increase on the passes that do connect.
As a best-case scenario, Rivers could see his efficiency rise while taking fewer deep shots. You’ll notice his high marks in 2018 came on his fewest attempts and vice versa for 2019. There were more situations last season when Rivers was forced to throw deep and as good as the Chargers’ top receivers are, there wasn’t a traditional deep threat on the roster. Mike Williams mostly served in that role, though so many of his deep receptions required contested efforts at the catch point.
Less frequent and smarter deep attempts might be in the Colts’ cards for the upcoming season. Reports from training camp indicate there has been a focus on short and underneath throws. This is one area where Rivers has been great in his career. Few quarterbacks have worked in running backs and tight ends as efficient parts of a passing game better than Rivers.
It’s not just the short stuff, either. In all situations last season, Rivers was one of the league’s best intermediate throwers — an area that features high value and high success. Rivers was eighth in both EPA per attempt and positive play rate on passes of 11-19 air yards.
Success didn’t just come on middle of the field throws in that area. Rivers was on-target often on throws to the intermediate outside with a 56.1% positive play rate last year that was his highest since 2015. That could be good news for Hilton, who has done a lot of work in that intermediate area outside the numbers. Take a look at his target heat map over the past two seasons:
There are a number of ways the Colts can fit Rivers’s strengths with those of the skill position players and there are more than enough strengths left for Reich and Sirianni to scheme up an efficient offense. Rivers might not be a top-five quarterback in the league anymore but viewing his 2019 season as a fall of a cliff is a wild exaggeration.
Indianapolis will still need to find its quarterback of the future to lead this team for years to come, but the Colts should feel good about the present.
