It was a wild ride to even get to Week 12 and there are still (possibly) two games remaining. With no teams on bye, we still had a packed Sunday of football even with Thanksgiving and Tuesday games on the schedule. Let's dive in.
1. The Chiefs looked like the Chiefs
Even while the Kansas City Chiefs have remained arguably the best team in the NFL throughout the 2020 season, they hadn’t had a Chiefs-like game. Kansas City’s 27-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended close, but the Chiefs early in this game were what we have been looking for all season.
It started with Kansas City’s first offensive play from scrimmage. The Chiefs came out with a tight trips bunch to the right. On an RPO, Tyreek Hill went in jet motion and straight into a wheel route down the left sideline. Hill’s motion gave him the leverage against Sean Murphy-Bunting (23) and Patrick Mahomes had the ball out before Hill cleared the corner.
Later in the drive, the Chiefs took advantage of a heavy box and single-high look on a second-and-9. Kansas City had go routes on each side of the formation and trusted their receivers against man coverage. This play ended in a 23-yard pass to Hill.
The Chiefs eventually kicked a short field goal on the drive and went three-and-out on the following drive, but went back to the air to start their third drive. That resulted in a 75-yard touchdown to Hill.
All season, defenses have been using two-high safeties against Kansas City to prevent big plays down the field. The Chiefs have mostly accepted the strategy and embraced an efficient short-to-intermediate passing game that has effectively moved the ball. But the Buccaneers have an aggressive defense that will blitz often and attempt to hold in coverage behind it. Tampa Bay came out with some single-high looks early in the game and the Chiefs took advantage.
It wasn’t just after the snap, either. The 75-yard touchdown to Hill was put into motion before the snap. Travis Kelce initially lined up outside of Hill on the right then motioned across to the outside left. That forced Jordan Whitehead (31) to shade over to the left side, which opened the sideline for Hill in one-on-one coverage. (It also lined up Sammy Watkins against a No. 98, which is a plus matchup to fall back on.)
On the following drive, the Chiefs faced a third-and-9 from the Tampa Bay 44-yard line. Kansas City came out in a 3×1 set and identified man coverage. The Buccaneers showed two-high safeties before the snap, but it turned into single-high coverage after the snap when Whitehead dropped into the box to cover the running back. That freed up the right sideline for a deep over route by Hill from the slot, which went for a touchdown.
Hill had 203 receiving yards in the first quarter alone and ended the game with 269 yards and three touchdowns on 13 receptions and 15 targets. Per nflfastR, Hill was worth 1.39 Expected Points Added per play against the Buccaneers.
This game was the closest the Chiefs offense has looked to the 2019 version. Mahomes had a 9.9-yard average depth of target against the Buccaneers, the fifth-highest of the week according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and threw into a tight window (a yard or fewer of separation) on just 6.1% of his attempts. Even when he did throw into a tight window, it didn’t matter. On Hill’s third receiving touchdown, Carlton Davis couldn’t have been in better coverage, but a perfectly placed ball resulted in a 20-yard score.
Mahomes finished with 9.4 yards per attempt, 0.40 EPA per dropback, and a QBR of 91.1.
It’s not that the Chiefs haven’t pushed the ball down the field this season, but in most games this has been reactionary to a team hanging on a little too close in the second half of games. This week, the Chiefs jumped out to an early lead but then allowed the Buccaneers to sneak back in.
That’s been part of the concern for Kansas City this season; they haven’t been able to completely put teams away. In an uneven Tom Brady performance, Tampa Bay was able to hit just enough big plays to keep the matchup close. Rob Gronkowski was the most dangerous weapon with 106 yards on six receptions and seven targets. Kansas City linebackers have been a problem in coverage and the Buccaneers were able to get some chunk plays both up the seam and on crossing routes with Gronkowski.
Kansas City’s biggest issue this season has come inside the red zone. Entering the week, the Chiefs ranked last in points allowed per red zone trip and touchdowns allowed per red zone trip, according to Football Outsiders. Two of Tampa Bay’s three touchdowns came from outside the red zone, but a fourth quarter score from Mike Evans highlighted some of the issues that have been present all season.
Tampa Bay came out in empty from the 7-yard line with Evans and Leonard Fournette stacked to the left. Evans ran an out and both Chiefs defenders to that side went with him. Evans still got open despite an illegal use of hands penalty on the defense. But even if Evans had been well covered by the two Chiefs defenders, Fournette was left wide open for what would have been an easy score.
The Buccaneers cut the Chiefs’ lead to three points with that score, but they never got the ball back despite 4:10 left on the clock when Tampa kicked off. To close out the game, Andy Reid trusted his quarterback. Mahomes had an open hole for a four-yard scramble on a second-and-3, an eight-yard scramble on a second-and-6, and ran to create an open throwing lane for Hill to ice the game with an eight-yard pass on a third-and-7.
Like all Chiefs games this season, it wasn’t perfect but this team doesn’t have to be perfect to beat the best teams in the league. This was another example, but one that looked a lot more like the Chiefs of old.
2. Titans Make A Run
When the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans met in Week 10, an expected close divisional matchup quickly turned into a 37-17 Colts rout. When the Colts and Titans met in Week 12, an expected close divisional matchup quickly turned into a 45-26 Titans rout.
This matchup looked destined to be a shootout after the first four drives of the game resulted in touchdowns. But the Colts lost left tackle Anthony Castonzo after the second touchdown drive and Indianapolis struggled to move the ball consistently for the remainder of the game.
The advantage in this game came along the lines with Tennessee getting the better on both sides of the ball. The Colts were without DeForest Buckner in the middle of the defensive line and that absence loomed large as the Titans killed the Colts on the ground. Indianapolis was only 15th in ESPN’s Run Stop WIn Rate with Buckner, but without him, Tennessee was able to get an insane push upfront.
Derrick Henry finished the game with 178 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries, good for 0.44 EPA per play and a 63% success rate. Per Next Gen Stats, Henry had 1.19 rushing yards over expectation per attempt against Tennessee. That was the eighth-highest mark for a running back this week. But what’s more impressive is if contextualized even further, that means Henry was expected to rush for 5.41 yards per carry in this matchup. That points to complete dominance up front.
It wasn’t just the offensive line, either. The Titans did a masterful job working a fullback into the blocking scheme and as a decoy. On this first-and-10 run in the second quarter, Khari Blasingame was the lead blocker from an I-formation and the fullback took out Darius Leonard (53) to open a hole that Henry followed for a 10-yard gain.
On the next drive, the Titans motioned into an I with Blasingame as the lead fullback. On this play, Blasingame ran wide of Henry’s intended route and that pulled Leonard outside of the back’s path for another 10-yard gain.
Tennessee used the same idea on the first play of the next drive, but tight end Geoff Swaim motioned into the backfield as the fullback. The Titans were also in 11 personnel, which spread the defense and lightened the box. Swaim, like Blasingame on the previous run went wide of the play, which drew Leonard out of the gap again. Henry made a cut and ran through a weak arm tackle attempt for a gain of 31 yards.
The Titans had no need to lay off the run, so they had a 37-17 run-pass split on early downs in this game. But for as effective as those runs were (0.37 EPA per play), Tennessee was even more efficient when they threw (0.47 EPA per play). That included a huge 69-yard catch-and-run touchdown for A.J. Brown for Tennessee’s second score of the game. Brown is currently fourth in yards after the catch per reception and second in yards after the catch per reception over expectation per Next Gen Stats. He remains the perfect middle of the field target for Tennesse’s heavy play-action passing game.
Indianapolis found itself in an undesirable situation without Bucker and Denico Autry going into the game to go along with the loss of Castonzo during it. The offense didn’t even play all that poorly given the circumstances. The run game wasn’t able to get going (Jonathan Taylor was also out) but the Colts still averaged 0.13 EPA per passing play.
This game was a massive shift for playoff odds in the AFC South. According to Football Outsiders, the 8-3 Titans now have a 78.4% chance of winning the division with a 51% chance at the No. 3 seed in the AFC and a 93.9% chance to make the playoffs. The Colts’ playoff odds dropped 24.5% with the loss with a 21.2% chance at the division and 61.7% chance at the playoffs overall.
3 Coaching Advantage, Buffalo Bills
Few things become more obvious than clear coaching advantages throughout a game and that became apparent during the Buffalo Bills’ 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. At 8-3 the Bills now have a comfortable one-game lead in the AFC East and are virtually assured a playoff spot at 94.2%. Watching this game, it was not hard to see why one team was going to the playoffs and the other was not.
On Buffalo’s first drive, it was clear offensive coordinator Brian Daboll had the upper hand. After a 47-yard defensive pass interference penalty drawn by Stefon Diggs put the ball near the goal line, the Bills had a play ready. The Bills came out in a heavy goal-line package with six offensive linemen and three tight ends. They showed an I-formation but motioned Dawson Knox to the right side of the line. Tight end Reggie Gilliam ran jet motion at the snap and that drew four Chargers to cover him, which left Knox wide open in the back of the end zone.
In the second quarter, the Bills followed a well-timed screen against a Chargers blitz on third-and-8 that gained 14 yards with their best trick play of the season. Cole Beasley came in motion then turned to loop behind Josh Allen and into the flat. Beasley took a backward pass from Allen and threw to a wide-open Gabriel Davis.
The offensive scheme was important for the Bills because Allen did not have an impressive game overall. He did have the fifth-highest completion percentage over expectation for the week and put up 0.23 EPA per dropback but that was only good for a QBR of 33, meaning a team with Allen’s play at quarterback would only be expected to win 33% of the time.
That coaching advantage came through, though, especially at the end of each half when the Chargers completely fell apart.
Los Angeles had the ball at the end of the first half, down 17-6. On a third-and-9 from their own 45-yard line with 45 seconds and two timeouts remaining, Justin Herbert threw a check-down to Austin Ekeler that gained seven yards. The offense lined up to go for the fourth-and-short but with 21 seconds left in the half and 25 seconds left on the play clock, the Chargers took a timeout. Anthony Lynn then conferenced with coaches and decided to send the punt unit on the field. The lack of a plan in that situation was startling.
A lack of situational awareness came back at the end of the second half. The Chargers were down 27-17 and had little chance of winning, but Herbert completed a 55-yard Hail Mary on a fourth-and-27 that gave Los Angeles a first-and-goal from the 2-yard line with no timeouts remaining.
The Chargers rushed up to the line, only to hand the ball off to Ekeler, who only gained a yard. With the clock still running, the Chargers tried a quick pass to Mike Willams, who was not ready for said pass. The entire sequence is amazing.
A roughing the passer penalty on the Williams incompletion gave the Chargers a first down and a chance to attempt a fade to Williams. It did not work. The final play of the game, with three seconds remaining, was a disaster. Multiple players didn’t know where to line up and Williams shrugged in confusion as the offense got set.
The play itself had Herbert in shotgun but he moved up under center for a quarterback sneak. That was news to the offensive linemen, who all pass blocked.
Herbert had his own shaky day with ups and downs within 55 dropbacks but the rookie has already needed to dig his team out of multiple holes the coaching staff has put them in this season.
4. Cardinals Cost Themselves Against Patriots
A big fourth down decision played a major role in the outcome of a 20-17 New England Patriots win over the Arizona Cardinals.
After the New England defense finished as the best in the league last season, the unit has struggled to stop anyone in 2020; they entered the week 32nd in defensive DVOA. In Week 12, the Patriots were able to keep the Cardinals under control, especially through the air.
Neither quarterback looked good throwing the ball on Sunday. Murray threw often but went just 23-of-34 for 170 yards with an interception. Cam Newton was only 9-of-18 for 84 yards with two interceptions, for a 6.6 QBR.
Newton was able to get some value back on the ground — nine rushed for 46 yards — but that was mostly absent from the Arizona offense.
Last week, Murray suffered a shoulder injury but he didn’t miss time and was healthy enough to play in this game. But even a healthy-enough-to-play Murray might not have been a player at 100%. It appeared early in the game that Murray wasn’t going to run. He was less apt to scramble and the designed runs that have provided huge value and have opened up other opportunities for the offense weren’t called.
It’s curious, though, because for as wise as it would be to keep Murray healthy, he rarely takes hits on his runs due to his extraordinary spatial awareness. Murray only rushed five times in the game, which is below his season average. Murray only has seven career games with fewer than five rushing attempts and they all came in 2019.
It wasn’t until Arizona’s second-to-last drive of the game at the start of the fourth quarter when Murray really used his legs as a weapon. He had a four-yard keep on a third-and-3 speed option followed by a 15-yard scramble on the next first down. It’s clear how much different the offense acts when Murray’s legs are a real threat.
The Cardinals faced a critical third-and-2 at the New England 28-yard line at the two-minute warning in a tie game. Arizona ran what looked to be a zone read and Murray handed the ball off to Kenyan Drake, who had no room to run and gain just one yard after an attempt to bounce outside. Murray looked to read the defenders to the right and while none of them crashed down, a healthy Murray probably has the confidence to beat them to the edge while only needing those two yards. Here’s the mesh point:
On fourth-and-1, Kliff Kingbury elected to try a 45-yard field goal, which was missed. New England took the ball and kicked a 50-yard field goal to win the game as time expired.
Arizona’s fourth-and-1 try cost the Cardinals 20% win probably per EdjSports’s model. It was another high-profile field goal decision for Kingsbury, who had a controversial call that even caused a number of fourth down models to disagree in Week 9 when he chose to kick a field goal on fourth-and-1 from the 31-yard line in an attempt to tie the game.
These choices to kick in high leverage situations overshadows that Kingsbury has been mostly aggressive on fourth down decisions this season. The Cardinals have the third-highest rate of going for it when recommended per rbsdm.com.
It’s unfortunate that Kingsbury has gone conservative on the most meaningful plays, but there is also hope given the aggressiveness elsewhere on fourth downs and the increase in aggressiveness from last season to 2020.
The loss is also unfortunate for the Cardinals, who dropped to 6-5 and lost 9.3% playoff probability, according to Football Outsiders. Arizona just has a 7.2% chance of winning the NFC West now (pending Seattle’s Monday Night Football game), though the Cardinals are still more likely than not to make the playoffs at 56.7%.
5. 49ers Keep It Moving
Not much has come easy in the NFC West, the only division in the league where all four teams sport positive point differentials on the season. Luckily those teams have been able to pick on the NFC East and AFC East but there has been no give when these teams play each other.
Kyle Shanahan has been able to keep the San Francisco 49ers more than afloat as they’ve gone through injuries, quarantined players, and now the need for a new stadium. San Francisco has remained competitive and can even pull out a 23-20 win over the Los Angeles Rams, even when Nick Mullens averages -0.07 EPA per dropback.
The offense got Deebo Samuel back for the first time since Week 7 (and only the fifth time this season) and his presence made an immediate impact. Mullens threw a tipped interception intended for Samuel on San Francisco’s first drive but Shanahan got them back in a groove on the next drive.
Samuel took a jet sweep pass 33 yards behind perfect blocking on a second-and-5 from the 49ers’ 30-yard line.
Then two plays later, Shanahan took advantage of the Rams’ zone coverage and got Samuel matched up with linebacker Troy Reeder on a deep crossing route for 26 yards that eventually led to an 8-yard touchdown run from Raheem Mostert.
Samuel finished the day with 0.22 EPA per play while the next three most-targeted 49ers finished with -0.59, -0.06, and -0.15.
San Francisco’s defense also came alive, keeping Jared Goff uncomfortable in the pocket. Goff was hit six times and sacked three times. Four of those hits and two sacks came from Kerry Hyder. Goff also tried to push the ball down the field (8.5-yard average depth of target, compared to a season average of 7.0) but the Rams didn’t have the open throws they were used to having. 22.6% of Goff’s throws were into tight coverage, per Next Gen Stats, well above his season average of 14.4%.
The 49ers continue to be well-coached all-around, impressive given the circumstances. But those circumstances have not left much room for playoff success. San Francisco has just a 17.5% chance of making the playoffs, per FO, thanks to the stacked NFC West.
6. Raiders Crash Hard
Last week, the Las Vegas Raiders hung close with the Chiefs. This week, they were embarrassed by the Atlanta Falcons, 43-6.
Nothing went right for the Raiders in the game, especially on offense. It started with a failed fourth-and-1 toss to Josh Jacobs that slowly developed and was stopped short. On the next drive, Derek Carr was strip-sacked and lost the fumble, one of three times that happened in the game.
Carr finished the day with -0.62 EPA per dropback, thanks to the fumbles and an interception with no touchdowns.
Part of the problem was how long Carr held onto the ball, which is usually the opposite of the issue for the quarterback. But with a more aggressive approach, Carr's average time to throw was 2.81 seconds against Atlanta. Unfortunately for Las Vegas, that compounded with not a lot opening up down the field and Carr's average completion occurred just 4.2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, the seventh-lowest mark of the week among quarterbacks. He was just 1-for-3 on passes that traveled at least 20 air yards.
Early on, it looked like the Raiders could click again on offense. They had a fourth-and-3 from the Atlanta 39-yard line that resulted in a 36-yard deep pass to Henry Ruggs. That set up a first-and-goal from the 2-yard line but penalties and other bad play eventually turned that into a third-and-goal from the 22-yard line. Sums up the Raiders’ day.
The loss took a significant hit to Vegas’s playoff odds. They now sit at 41.3%, a 24.3% drop from last week.
7. Beware the short field goal up 3
Matt Rhule has done a lot right in his first year as head coach for the Carolina Panthers. But a field goal decision late in an eventual 28-27 loss to the Minnesota Vikings was one that helped cost his team the game.
With a 27-21 lead late in the game, the Panthers punted with 2:18 remaining but the Vikings muffed the punt, which was recovered by Carolina and gave the Panthers a first-and-goal from the 9-yard line. Carolina failed to get the ball in the end zone, including on a third-and-3 that saw Teddy Bridgewater miss a wide-open D.J. Moore in the back of the end zone (and potentially injure the receiver). Instead of going for it, the Panthers chose to kick a 21-yard field goal to extend their lead to six points. The call cost the Panthers 12% win probability before the snap.
A six-point lead is a dangerous one late in games and it’s less preferable than a three-point lead. The extra score incentives the opponent to play more aggressively by needing a touchdown. It’s more likely in a three-point game that the opponent will play to kick the field goal to force a tie. The Panthers were better in either situation from going for it — leading by three and forcing the Vikings to start a drive at their own 3-yard line or going up by 10 points, which creates a two-score game.
Carolina kicked and Minnesota drove down the field, seven plays for 75 yards in 1:05, and scored a go-ahead touchdown.
Even though the Panthers got back into field goal range, Joey Slye missed a 54-yard attempt with six seconds left. A more aggressive attitude could have sealed a Panthers victory much earlier.
EIGHT. Chart of the day
Evan Engram finally got used down the field. It was his first game of the season with an aDOT (12.1 yards) in double digits. Though, even with that, his season-long aDOT is just 6.4 yards, the 12th-lowest among qualified receivers per Next Gen Stats. There was a lost fumble along the way, which lost some value (only 0.03 EPA per play), but this might have been the first time in Engram’s career that he was used as a consistent vertical threat.
9. Play of the day
The Patriots haven’t been as good of a red zone offense as they should be this season (just 25th in points per red zone trip) but they have whipped out a few fun play designs. This one against the Cardinals screwed with the defense’s expectations.
New England came out in 21 personnel and motioned Damien Harris from the backfield to the outside left. With Cam Newton under center in a staggered stance from empty, the defense expected a sneak. But then James White motioned into the backfield from the right and it turned into a toss to White to the left. The defense couldn’t react quick enough and White scored to put the Patriots up 17-10.
10. GM Openings
Following a 27-25 loss to the Cleveland Browns (and years of not being any good), the Jacksonville Jaguars fired general manager Dave Caldwell. That already marks the fourth general manager opening this season, to go along with the Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, and Detroit Lions.
The Jaguars find themselves in a good position for a new general manager to take over. They currently sit with the second overall pick and an extra first that will come later in the round. Jacksonville also has cap space in a year that will be valued without many big contracts on the books from the current roster and a few young pieces to build around. It’s an attractive job.
More than the outlook of one job, it will be fascinating to watch the types of candidates these teams interview and eventually hire. General manager positions haven’t come open nearly as often as head coaching jobs do — it was only two years ago that Mike Mayock was the only new GM hire in an offseason — but like the top coaching gig, younger and more innovative thinkers have a leg up by challenging how things are typically done.
This could be a pivot point for a team like the Jaguars that has positioned itself as a forward-thinking franchise without showing much to back it up. Overall, this offseason could be shaping up to feature the next wave of team builders that will influence league trends for the next few seasons. Or these teams could stick to old school thought and not much will change. The team that wants to be the former will likely be the one with the better long-term outlook at this time next year.
