Vikings vs Buccaneers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 14

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 14 Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game.

Minnesota	Rank	@	Tampa Bay	Rank
6.5		Spread	-6.5
23		Implied Total	29.5
26.6	12	Points/Gm	28.7	6
27.4	26	Points All./Gm	23.3	11
62.2	26	Plays/Gm	64	17
66.3	25	Opp. Plays/Gm	63.4	12
48.1%	6	Rush%	36.1%	28
51.9%	27	Pass%	63.9%	5
42.3%	19	Opp. Rush %	35.6%	2
57.7%	14	Opp. Pass %	64.4%	31

After allowing a league-best 4.6 yards per play Weeks 1-6, Tampa Bay has allowed 5.8 yards per play since (26th).
The Buccaneers are allowing 7.0 yards per pass play over that stretch (26th) after 5.5 per pass play through six weeks (second).
Kirk Cousins leads the league in touchdown rate on play action passes (14.3%) while Tom Brady is third (10.2%).
Cousins uses play-action on 28% of his dropbacks (16th) while Brady just 18% of the time (36th).
Tampa Bay is first in the league in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (28.6%), second in rate allowed to gain 10 or more yards (8.5%), and first in explosive rushing yardage allowed on explosive runs (25.7 per game).
Dalvin Cook leads the league in runs of 10 or more yards (35) and is second in yardage on those carries (579).
Opponents have scored a touchdown on a league-low 17.5% of their red zone plays against the Vikings.

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Tom Brady (TRUST): Brady had some ups and downs this season, but he has been a top-10 scorer in four of his past six games with multiple touchdown passes in six of his past seven games. Minnesota gets relatively no pressure on the quarterback, which we always look for first when Brady might struggle. The Vikings are 27th in pressure rate (18.4%). Minnesota has not allowed a QB1 scoring week since Week 8, but have faced Matthew Stafford/Chase Daniel, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, and Mike Glennon over that stretch. Despite that soft schedule of late, Minnesota still ranks 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (17.2).

Kirk Cousins: Cousins has been a QB1 scorer in four straight games, throwing for 292, 314, 307, and 305 yards over that span with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. Cousins has been solid against the blitz – Tampa Bay blitzes at the third-highest rate (39.3%) – throwing 10 touchdowns to one interception and matching his 8.5 yards per attempt against non-blitz dropbacks when teams send extra heat.

Cousins has hit 20 points six times, coming against Atlanta, Dallas, Jacksonville, Detroit, Green Bay, and Carolina. All six of those teams are in the back half of the league in passing points allowed per game. But Tampa Bay is 21st in that category based on their struggles over the past several weeks.

Over their past six since shutting down Aaron Rodgers, Tampa Bay has allowed a QB1 performance in five of those games, with the only exception being Daniel Jones, but have allowed multiple touchdown passes in all six of those games. For those who have been using Cousins, he is still a lower-end QB1 option while Tampa Bay should force passing volume due to their strong run defense.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook: Despite Mike Zimmer’s suggestion that they need to watch Cook’s workload, the workhorse back handled a season-high 38 touches last week for 179 yards. Cook has rushed for fewer than 3.5 yards per carry in three of his past four games, but Cook has 19 receptions for 141 yards the past four weeks after 16 receptions over his opening seven games of the season.

The Buccaneers are allowing just 8.9 rushing points per game, which is second in the league. They have not allowed more than 59 yards rushing to an individual back in a game this season, but they do rank 27th in receiving points allowed per game (11.4).

We know Cook is going to sustain a high workload and his uptick in the receiving game is enough to keep him as a locked-in option in lineups, but this is easily his toughest assignment of the season. His toughest rushing matchup to date came against Indianapolis in Week 2, who is 10th in rushing points allowed per game, where Cook rushed 14 times for 63 yards and a touchdown with two catches for eight yards.

Ronald Jones: Jones has hit 103 and 198 yards from scrimmage in two of his past three games, turning in splash touchdown plays of 98 yards and 37 yards in those weeks. But Jones also has 11 or fewer touches in four of his past five games. Minnesota is allowing a subpar 4.4 YPC to backs (19th), but are 10th in rushing points allowed per attempt (.59). Jones has the added bonus of being a home favorite, but is a boom-or-bust RB2/FLEX based on needing a splash play to cash in on potentially limited volume.

Leonard Fournette: Outside of a 46-yard touchdown run in Week 2, Fournette has shown marginal juice this season playing an ancillary role in this Tampa Bay offense. Fournette has the passing-down role in this offense to give him a useful PPR floor as a FLEX, but his 4.6 yards per target and 6.1 yards per catch are currently career lows. Fournette has not had more than 10 touches in a game since Week 8.

Wide Receiver

Adam Thielen: Thielen returned to the lineup last week after being forced to sit out Week 12 to catch 8-of-11 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. It was his 12 touchdown on the season on his league-leading 16th end zone target on the year. After posting 51 yards or fewer Weeks 6-10 with no more than four catches in any of those four games, Thielen has turned in games of 123 and 75 yards with eight receptions in each of his past two games played.

Thielen has scored in 8-of-11 games, but has been the WR62 or lower in those three games without a score this season. The Vikings will have to throw here and Thielen is still commanding 25.4% of the team targets to go with his end zone usage. Thielen is a volume and touchdown based WR1.

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson is the first Minnesota rookie wide receiver to hit 1,000 yards in a season since Randy Moss and just the fifth player in the Super Bowl era to top 1,000 receiving yards in his first 12 career games. Jefferson trails only Tyreek Hill in fantasy points on targets over 15 yards downfield, catching 21-of-30 of those targets 633 yards and four touchdowns. Tampa Bay is 28th in the league in fantasy points allowed per target on those targets.

The Bucs have allowed four top-15 scoring wideouts over their past three games. Jefferson has out-targeted Thielen in two of their past three games played together, but both have been top-16 scoring wideouts in all three of those games. Jefferson is a big-play WR1 option.

Mike Evans: Evans has still been a touchdown dependent fantasy option with a touchdown in 9-of-12 games played despite averaging a career-low 51.1 yards per game and 12.8 yards per grab. But at least volume is starting to come his way, with Evan tallying at least nine targets in each of his past three games. Even if he remains a touchdown-dependent WR2, Evans is drawing a Minnesota defense that has allowed 19 touchdowns to opposing wideouts, tied with Dallas for the most entering Tuesday.

Chris Godwin: Godwin had pins removed from his broken finger early in the week, so monitor his status throughout the week. If he is good to go, Godwin has only had one WR1 scoring week this season, but has turned in a high floor, with six top-30 scoring weeks in his eight games. Godwin has at least five receptions in seven games with six or more in each of his past three games. We have attacked Minnesota with opposing wideouts all season as they are 31st in points allowed per target (2.09) to the position. Keep using Godwin as a floor-based WR2.

Antonio Brown: After his target share had climbed over each of his first three games with Tampa, Brown caught just 2-of-3 targets for 11 yards in Week 12 prior to the bye. Brown has now caught 20-of-29 targets with yardage totals of 31, 69, 57, and 11 in his four games played with zero touchdowns and zero end zone targets. The matchup is in play to have Brown as a matchup-based WR3/FLEX, but Evans and Godwin are much better bets for production.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski: Prior to the bye, Gronk reeled in 6-of-7 targets for 106 yards, his first 100-yard game since Week 14 of the 2018 season. Gronk has been a top-six scoring tight end in five of his past seven games, but did have five total catches over his previous three games before Week 12 to keep us honest. Minnesota is 31st in yards allowed per target (8.6 yards) to tight ends. Keep using Gronk as a TE1.

Vikings TEs: After games of 4-63-0 and 7-68-0 on 13 targets in the first two games that Irv Smith Jr. missed, Kyle Rudolph left us holding the bag last week, getting goose-egged on two targets against the Jaguars. Smith is dealing with groin and back injuries, so keep tabs on his status for Week 14. If he is out once again, Rudolph is a TE2 streamer.

More Week 14 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: