Week 14 gave us our first full and normal slate of games in a while. But in a season when nothing has really been all that normal, the playoff landscape switched with top seeds in both conferences and those top teams might be clearer than they've been all season.
1. Jalen Hurts Changed The NFC
When Doug Pederson announced Jalen Hurts would replace Carson Wentz as the starting quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, it was seen as a necessary move but one that might not produce great immediate results because of the quality of teams Hurts was scheduled to face. The New Orleans Saints were second in defensive DVOA through Week 13, but Hurts and the Eagles were able to pull out a 24-21 win.
Hurts wasn’t overly impressive as a passer in the game, he averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt, but he did have a touchdown pass, didn’t throw an interception, and was not sacked. The Eagles had a good offensive game plan to get Hurts comfortable in the offense. A lot of that came with the added element of the quarterback run game. Philadelphia’s first play from scrimmage was inverted veer. The first third down was a third-and-4 converted by a five-yard Hurts scramble, and a fourth-and-1 on the first drive was picked up by a QB Power run from empty.
Even Eagles staple plays were working better in this game. Jalen Reagor had a 39-yard reception on a Mesh call with a wide open sideline on a third-and-7 at the end of the first quarter.
The Eagles eventually scored on that drive with a 15-yard back-shoulder throw to Alshon Jeffery on a fourth-and-2.
Hurts was a major threat on the ground and added 106 rushing yards on 18 carries with a mix of designed runs and scrambles. His ability on the ground also opened up for others in the running game. Inside the two minute warning of the first half, the Eagles had a second-and-11 on their own 3-yard line after a false start. Hurts kept a read option for 15 yards around the left end to get Philadelphia out of its own end zone.
Two plays later, Hurts handed the ball off on an RPO and Miles Sanders took it 82 yards for the touchdown.
So much of the ground game needed to revolve around Hurts, though, because Sanders only had 33 yards on 13 carries outside of the long touchdown run.
There were certainly some new wrinkles in the Eagles offense that took advantage of Hurts’s running ability. Early in the fourth quarter, Philadelphia ran a triple option with a wide receiver end around the opposite way. Hurts tossed the ball to Jalen Reagor, who took it 19 yards.
The Eagles embraced that quarterback running element more than the Saints have done in any game with Taysom Hill this season and it was clear how much that impacted both offenses on Sunday. It’s an effective safety net for when the passing game might not be working. For all that Hurts and the Eagles did well, he still only completed 56.7% of his passes and had the third-lowest expected completion percentage of the week according to NFL Next Gen Stats (57.3%). Without an emphasis on the quarterback running game, the Eagles still had problems consistently getting receivers open in the passing game.
Mobile quarterbacks can often run themselves into trouble by trying to do too much with their legs to extend plays, but even though Hurts did hold the ball for 3.07 seconds on average per Next Gen Stats, his most impressive feat was continuing to run from danger instead of run toward it. New Orleans, a defense that ranked sixth in quarterback hits entering the week, only hit Hurts three times in the game.
On the other side, Hill actually had his best game as a passer with 291 yards, two touchdowns, 7.7 yards per attempt, and 0.10 EPA per dropback but it was a streaky performance with a poor first half. The Saints’ five first half drives ended: punt, missed field goal, interception, punt, punt as the Eagles took a 17-0 lead into halftime.
New Orleans came out in the second half and scored a touchdown on each of their first two drives. His two-play sequence of a 22-yard pass to Michael Thomas on a third-and-2 followed by a 37-yard touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders off a fake pitch to a bootleg right might have been the most impressive of his quarterback tenure.
But some of Hill’s deficiencies as a dropback passer were apparent, especially when he tried to make plays with his feet. On the Saints’ third drive of the second half, they faced a fourth-and-2 from the Eagles’ 47-yard line. Hill rolled to his right from empty and was chased down from behind for Josh Sweat, who knocked the ball out for an Eagles recovery. The Eagles scored a touchdown on the next drive to take a 10-point lead and while the Saints did score to make it a three-point lead, an unsuccessful onside kick gave the Eagles a victory.
While the win was nice for the Eagles and could either complicate or clear up the future quarterback situation depending on your viewpoint, the result of the game completely shifted the landscape of the NFC in 2020. The Saints appeared to have control of the conference with a fairly easy schedule and no losses since Hill took over as the starter. But now with the loss, the 10-3 Saints have lost their hold on the No. 1 seed and only have a 28.7% chance to finish in the top spot, according to Football Outsiders. With only one bye per conference, it’s a huge advantage to get the top seed, especially for an older team like the Saints who could use the rest especially with the health of Drew Brees in question. This unexpected loss comes with the Kansas City Chiefs up next for a Week 15 meeting in New Orleans.
Luckily, the Saints still have a two-game lead in the division but now they’re likely to finish as the No. 2 seed in the NFC, which would now put them in play on the first weekend of the playoffs.
2. No One Puts Away The Chiefs… and the Chiefs Don't Put Anyone away
The Chiefs remain the most fascinating really good team in the NFL. Kansas City pretty clearly remains the best team in the league with the ability to beat anyone, but we’re still waiting for the dominant blowout. It feels like we write about this every week and every week it’s a different version of the same story. Midway through the Chiefs’ 33-27 win over the Miami Dolphins, it looked like the blowout was finally coming but again an opponent was allowed to get an early lead and then get themselves back into the game at the end.
Miami did just about everything a team could hope to get ahead of Kansas City, but the demoralizing thing is it just didn’t matter. Patrick Mahomes had three interceptions in the game and still had positive EPA (0.09 per dropback, per nflfastR), a 54% success rate, and a QBR of 66.4 — meaning a team with Mahomes’s quarterback performance would be expected to win about 66.4% of the time. Again, he threw three interceptions in the game.
This was the second three-interception game of Mahomes’s career. The first was in the wild 2019 54-51 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. That came was also accompanied by six passing touchdowns.
His first interception of the game, early in the first quarter, featured a deflection from a defender (Andrew Van Ginkel) who was on the ground when Mahomes released the ball and the tip fell right into the hands of Byron Jones.
Miami got no points on the following drive with a missed field goal. Kansas City isn’t a team that is going to make many mistakes like that, so opposing teams need to score when the opportunity presents itself. To their credit, the Dolphins did take advantage of a 30-yard Mahomes sack on the next drive that set up good field position for a touchdown.
On the next drive, Mahomes overthrew Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the ball went into the waiting arms of Eric Rowe.
The Dolphins capped that drive with a field goal, but after three Chiefs mistakes, the Dolphins only held a 10-0 lead.
Mahomes, of course, has the ability to make up for those turnovers better than any other quarterback in the league. He still averaged 11.6 yards per attempt against the Dolphins with a 54% success rate.
Kansas City’s drive following the second interception only took four plays to turn into a touchdown, a 32-yard run from Tyreek Hill. Later in the second quarter, the Chefs got their down deflected interception off a deep attempt to Jakeem Grant and into the arms of Tyrann Mathieu. Kansas City took the ball down the field for 74 yards in nine plays and went ahead 14-10.
There was a lot of talk about a “blueprint” laid by the Raiders to beat the Chiefs. Fluky turnovers aren’t really something opponents can bank on, but what the Raiders showed is that the only way to beat the Chiefs is to hang with them punch-for-punch. That would mean taking advantage when fluky turnovers present themselves. The Dolphins weren’t able to do that early and they quickly found their 10-0 lead turned into a 30-10 deficit by the middle of the third quarter.
The Chiefs were able to pick on the middle of the Dolphins’ defense, an area Kansas City has gotten especially effective at targeting. Mahomes was 3-of-4 for 71 yards targeting the intermediate middle (11-19 air yards) and 2-of-4 for 47 yards to the intermediate right. Mahomes also got two deep passes in, even while the Dolphins took the strategy of playing two deep safeties to prevent it.
Of course, the key of those two deep safeties is to sell out against the pass, but on a 44-yard pass to Hill, safety Clayton Fejedelem (42) initially took steps in against play-action and that was all Hill needed to get behind the secondary for a wide-open touchdown.
If there is a concern for the Chiefs, it might be the running game. Kansas City won the Super Bowl last season with a below average running game they’re actually better this season (10th in DVOA through Week 13) but the problem is the run hasn’t been effective late in games when they try to go to it more often. It’s played a part in why the team hasn’t been able to close out opponents.
We all know the Chiefs are the pass-heaviest team on early downs over the first three quarters, but in the fourth quarter, Kansas drops to just 51% pass on all plays and that’s the ninth-lowest pass rate in those situations. On fourth quarter runs, the Chiefs averaged 2.5 yards per carry and it wasn’t much better against the Dolphins.
Edwards-Helaire averaged -0.37 EPA per attempt with a 25% success rate and just 6% first down rate, per nflfastR. That’s not nearly good enough to close out games. The Chiefs aren’t strangers to throwing in order to kill the clock late in games and that might be the path they go down when the games really matter but it could be an issue worth monitoring.
But even given some of Kansas City’s faults this season, they’re now the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a 93.6% chance at the top seed, per Football Outsiders. The Chiefs still haven't really had an A-game this season, but they haven’t even needed it to get on top of the conference.
3. The Colts Are Figuring It Out
The Indianapolis Colts are starting to figure it out. Philip Rivers has bounced back from a lackluster stretch through the middle of the season and the structure of the offense is coming into place. Rivers has command of the offense and it functioned at its best in a 44-27 win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
Rivers finished the game with an impressive 8.7 yards per attempt, 0.61 EPA per dropback, and an 85.8 QBR, his second-highest mark of the season. He was only hit once in the game, an incredible feat given how the Colts’ offensive line could have gone into disarray with injuries early in the game. Anthony Castonzo returned from injury but had to briefly leave the game in the first quarter. He was initially replaced by Chaz Green before the Colts moved left guard Quenton Nelson over to tackle for a few plays. Castonzo luckily returned on the second drive and the offensive line dominated for much of the game.
Clean pockets allowed Rivers to push the ball down the field. His 9.3-yard average depth of target was the seventh-highest among quarterbacks in Week 14, per Next Gen Stats, and his 7.4-yard average depth of completion was the fourth-highest. Rivers lived in the intermediate area of the field, going 5-of-9 for 116 yards and a touchdown on throws between 11-19 air yards.
Frank Reich is also getting into a grove, especially with third down designs. The Colts killed Houston with Mesh last week and against the Raiders, there were a number of crossing routes and open throws that allowed Indianapolis to go 8-for-11 on third downs in the game, including three conversions on their first touchdown drive.
There has also been an awakening of T.Y. Hilton over the past three weeks. Through 11 weeks, Hilton looked like a shell of himself as a receiver, but with a 5-86-2 line against the Raiders, he’s scored all four of his touchdowns in the last three weeks while being significantly more productive on his targets.
T.Y. Hilton, 2020
| Weeks | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-11 | 50 | 29 | 327 | 0 |
| 12-14 | 23 | 17 | 277 | 4 |
Hilton’s also been a significantly better deep receiver in the latter part of the season. He had a 20-yard reception in Week 1 and then didn’t have one until Week 11. Since that Week 11 game, Hilton now has four receptions of at least 20 air yards (one in each game), including a 41-yard touchdown against Las Vegas.
The touchdown came on a first-and-10 when the Colts were trailing 14-10. Hilton was stacked with Marcus Johnson to the right and Hilton was able to run wide-open thanks to another deep safety taking a first step in because of play-action. (Raiders defensive coordinator Paul Guenther was fired shortly after the game.)
There were also more flashes from rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Those runs went for 0.23 EPA per carry but just a 35% success rate due to a huge boom or bust nature of the attempts. The boom — including a 62-yard touchdown run — was plenty enough to not kick the Colts completely off schedule.
The Colts defense has slowed down its turnover pace from early in the season but the coverage has held up well without having to rely on those turnovers. Interceptions still pop up at opportune times, though, as the Indianapolis defense still ranks fourth in interceptions forced per drive. They had two high-leverage picks against Derek Carr in Week 14, one on an amazing one-handed catch from Kenny Moore in the end zone to prevent a touchdown and another from Khari Willis that went for a game-sealing pick-6 in the fourth quarter.
Indianapolis now has an 89.3% chance of making the playoffs with a 45% chance at winning the AFC South, per Football Outsiders.
4. Kliff Kingsbury Read The Tweets (But Haason Reddick Stole The Day)
There have long been concerns about some of the schematics of the Arizona Cardinals’ passing game. DeAndre Hopkins has continually been isolated to the left side and his usage has been on short routes and screens recently. The weaknesses of the scheme were only exacerbated when Kyler Murray wasn’t running over the past few weeks. Some of those concerns were cleared up during a 26-7 win over the New York Giants.
Murray was more involved in the running game, though his scrambles weren’t as effective as they had been earlier in the season — just 47 yards on 13 carries. But more importantly, Murray was able to buy time in the pocket (3.06 average seconds to throw) and the Cardinals worked to move Hopkins around and create favorable matchups. Despite the Giants’ plan against the Seattle Seahawks last week, they’re often a single-high safety Cover 3 team and they returned to that mostly against the Cardinals.
Early in the game, the Cardinals got Hopkins running across the middle of the field and often matched up in zone coverage against linebacker Blake Martinez. Throughout the game, Hopkins got to move more and saw six of his 11 targets from the slot. He finished with nine catches for 136 yards and 0.79 EPA per play.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Cardinals dominated on the line. Daniel Jones returned from a hamstring injury that forced him to miss last week’s game against Seattle and the injury sapped some mobility that when combined with the quarterback’s usual lack of pocket presence, resulted in an easy target for pass rushers.
The day started with former Giant Markus Golden getting a strip sack of Jones from the blindside and a recovery of his forced fumble, but the start of the game was Hasson Reddick. Reddick has been an interesting piece of the Cardinals defense, a role that was always better in theory than practice. He was moved to off-ball linebacker, but has gotten more opportunities to rush the passer, where he excelled in college, this season. Reddick had already set a career-high with five sacks entering the game. He doubled that total by the final whistle with five sacks and an additional quarterback hit in the game.
Reddick won in just about every way imaginable. His first sack at the end of the second quarter was off the right edge. His second sack came around the left. His third sack was on a stunt with Giants right guard Kevin Zeitler too late to pick it up. His final two sacks iced the game within a five-play stretch against Colt McCoy in the fourth quarter.
With the win, Arizona climbed up 16.1% in playoff probability to 62.3%, per FO, and they are the most likely team to get into the playoffs as the final No. 7 seed. The loss for the Giants highlighted a few of their flaws — most of them with the quarterback and the offense designed around him — and they now sit a game back of the NFC East lead with just a 22.8% chance of making the playoffs.
5. The Ups and Downs of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers
Few teams have been less consistent than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, especially on offense. Even when they’ve been good as of late, they still leave you wanting more. Tom Brady finished the 26-14 win over the Minnesota Vikings with 8.5 yards per attempt, 0.54 EPA per dropback, and a QBR of 83.9. He again did not play as well as those numbers and it looked even worse early on before he settled down a bit toward the end of the game.
On an early third-and-3, Rob Gronkowski had a step on defenders on a deep cross, but Brady overthrew them. Then on a third-and-7 on the following drive, Brady had time in the pocket, pumped twice, shuffled up in the pocket, and sailed a pass over the head of an open Chris Godwin.
There were some nice plays, such as the 48-yard touchdown pass to Scotty Miller and a 29-yard pass down the sideline to Mike Evans off play-action at the start of the second half but the Tampa Bay offense constantly feels like there’s too much effort to create successful plays with the talent it has.
Brady’s passing chart for this game highlights a few big plays down the field and some help after the catch on shorter passes.
What’s kept Tampa Bay alive and in the playoff race is the ability of different units to take over the game. Against the Vikings, it was the pass rush that sacked Kirk Cousins six times, three on third down and another on a desperation fourth-and-13 just before the two minute warning. The defensive line was able to break through against the pass but the Vikings had their way on the ground with Dalvin Cook’s 102 yards, a touchdown, 0.29 EPA per carry, and a 70% success rate. But the passing game was limited enough to keep the Vikings from keeping pace.
That ability to win in multiple ways was a reason to think Tampa Bay could be one of the best teams in the conference, but there has been too much variance throughout those units for the Buccaneers to dominate. Tampa has only scored over 30 points once in their past five games and you would have hoped for more out of a bye if the Buccaneers were going to stake their claim as a top team in the NFC.
6. Washington's Defense Takes Over
In the NFC East, having one dominant unit is enough to make a difference. Washington’s defensive line is easily the best unit in the division — and one of the best in the league — and it clearly made an impact in a 23-15 win over the San Francisco 49ers.
Washington hit Nick Mullens 12 times in the game and they backed it up with some good pass coverage with 11 passes defensed. Every piece of the Washington defensive line pitched in to make life hard on Mullens, who has benefitted from a great scheme and playcaller in his time as a starter. Jonathan Allen led the way with three quarterback hits and he’s been an interior disruptor all season. He entered the week ranked sixth among defensive tackles in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate.
The most promising development has been what No. 2 overall pick Chase Young has done over the past few weeks. Through Week 11, Young only had four quarterback hits. He has four in the past three games, including two, with a sack, against San Francisco. He entered the week sixth among edge rushers in Pass Rush Win Rate. Young has been a player who has been able to create pressure and now he’s actually getting to the quarterback more consistently. He’s always around the quarterback, even if it’s not a hit, as evidenced by his 47-yard fumble scoop and score in the second quarter.
Washington is going to have to rely on that defense because the offense hasn’t been able to click. Alex Smith has been a great comeback story, but he’s often reverted to his check-down or nothing approach. Even in this game when he tried to push the ball down the field with an 8.2-yard aDOT, his average completion was just 3.2 yards past the line of scrimmage. He left the game early with a leg injury and was replaced by Dwayne Haskins, who was inconsistent under center.
But with the win, Wahsington is in the driver’s seat for the NFC East with a one-game lead over the Giants and a 68.2% chance to win the division.
7. Green Bay In Control
It’s hard to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Even when they’re not as explosive as they could be — Rodgers was just 0-for-1 on attempts over 20 air yards in a 31-24 win over the Detroit Lions — they have plenty of ways to win.
Rodgers had plenty of room to work in the intermediate area with Davtane Adams routinely in one-on-one coverage. Adams picked up 115 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions and 11 targets. Adams did a lot of work after the catch. His 59-yard touchdown came on a jump ball down the sideline that he turned into a long gain down the middle. Then he helped seal the victory with a 29-yard run on a screen late in the fourth quarter.
Rodgers and the offense have been at their best when the short game has worked and the Packers lived there while the Lions sold out to stop the deep passes that Rodgers has thrived on this season. Rodgers was 12-of-13 for 104 yards on passes that traveled between 1 and 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. The Packers had little problem going short and forcing a Detroit weakness at linebacker to make a play.
The offensive adjustments are what can make Green Bay such a dangerous offense and one that is able to make up for a lack of defense. With the win, the Packers clinched the NFC North and now, thanks to the Saints’ loss to the Eagles, the Packers are the favorites to be the top seed in the NFC. Football Outsiders guves them a 55.8% chance at the No. 1 seed and the bye due to the Week 3 head-to-head win over New Orleans as the tiebreaker.
8. Chart of the day
Derrick Henry rushed for 215 yards, two touchdowns, and 0.43 EPA per play with a 67% success rate in a 31-10 Tennessee Titans win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars sold out to stop Henry and loaded the box with eight or more men on 46.2% of his rushing attempts. With a big back that can break tackles like Henry, that leaves the possibility of an easy breakaway run if Henry is able to get through that first line of defense.
It sounds crazy, but I still believe the best way to defend Henry and the Titans is to play light, defend against play-action, and have multiple waves ready to hit Henry rather than trying to win at the line.
9. Play of the day
This was Mahomes’s third interception of the game and we can use it to highlight Xavien Howard. Not only was the interception impressive on its own, it was in man coverage against Tyreek Hill, which has killed plenty of good cornerbacks over the past few years.
We can also use this time to bring up how good Howard has been this season. Howard entered Week 13 fifth among 139 cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps in Adjusted Yards allowed (factoring in touchdowns and interceptions) per coverage snap. He has also pulled that off while being targeted at an above average rate for corners because there’s no good option for opposing quarterbacks to throw against when playing the Dolphins’ secondary.
That interception was his ninth of the season.
10. The Steelers Are In Trouble
This last two-game stretch has displayed the faults in the Steelers’ roster. It’s hard to consistently win games in the NFL relying on turnovers from the defense and an offense that can’t generate explosive plays.
The offense has become a significant problem over the past few weeks and it’s more than just Ben Roethlisberger’s inability to throw deep. Among 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts from a clean pocket through Week 13, Roethlisberger ranked 34th in yards per attempt, ahead of only Nick Foles. He was 20th in EPA and 30th in positive play rate.
For much of the season, the Steelers were able to rely on some catch and run ability from the wide receivers but that hasn’t been an available avenue as often as it was early in the season. Between drops, they may or may not be a factor of the offensive design, defenses are just sitting on the short routes and ready to either tackle the receiver immediately or break on the ball. That’s what happened on the pick-6 to Taron Johnson against the Bills on Sunday night. Johnson sat on a short JuJu Smith-Schuster route, drove in front of the receiver, and took the ball 51-yards for a touchdown.
It’s hard to picture the Steelers having a competitive team in the playoffs if the offense is so predictable without a lot of upside to carry through the inefficiency. This was covered up for most of the season, but it’s become a glaring problem over the two-game losing streak.
