My second season contributing to Sharp Football is coming to a close, and I’m still finding apps and tools on the website that I’ve never come across or used before. The Trending Performance app is an interesting way of looking at who’s improving as an offense. At this point in the season, we feel like we know a team’s “brand”. But, things evolve over the course of an NFL season and we may be able to leverage a recent change and target an offensive attack that could go under-owned because of their perceived identity.
Quick Takeaways
- Cleveland has actually been a more explosive passing attack than rushing attack recently.
- Somehow the New York Jets are also trending in the right direction in the passing game?
- Vikings, Patriots, and Rams are all going the wrong way in terms of the ground game.
Are The No Longer Winless Jets in Play?
No. I’m not playing Jets anymore this season for very obvious reasons. The trend that I noticed does make me a little bit more confident in targeting the Browns, though. Cleveland shellacked the other New York football team last week. Baker Mayfield ($6,100) has looked the part lately, hitting the bonus in two of his last three games and missing it by just three yards on Monday night. He actually briefly had the bonus but his final completion was -5 yards which dropped him back below the 300-yard threshold.
Since Odell Beckham’s injury, Jarvis Landry ($6,900) leads the team in targets. He’s averaging 9.5 targets over the past four weeks and has topped 19 DK Points in three of four contests. Rashard Higgins ($4,800) has emerged as a number two option with some upside, as well.
NFC West Shootout
It’s not a huge surprise based on recent play, but Russell Wilson ($7,300) is the cheapest he’s been all season and he was the lowest rostered he’s been all year last week against the Football Team. People will probably be scared off of DK Metcalf ($7,800) because of his first performance against the Rams earlier in the year. It’s more of an exposure play than anything, but getting access to the collective ceiling of Wilson-Metcalf at potentially lower exposure seems like a profitable strategy over the long-term.
On the other side of the game, the Rams backfield got cheaper and the workload got more consolidated thanks to an injury to Cam Akers. The Seahawks defense looks like it’s been stout against the run, but they’ve faced a slew of offenses that don’t really scare you on the ground.
The last time these teams met, though, LA found success on the ground. The rush attack combined for three touchdowns and each running back had an explosive run. With the narrowing of the opportunity, Malcolm Brown ($4,000) and Darrell Henderson ($4,500) are both in play.
Searching for Explosive Pass Plays
It should go without saying, but explosive pass plays are the only way you’re going to get any ceiling value from your wide receivers.
If Travis Kelce ($8,500) was a wide receiver, he’d be over $9,000. So far this season, he has nine games with 20+ DK Points including a couple of 30 point efforts. Atlanta hasn’t been able to provide much resistance to opposing offenses and I don’t see how they figure it out against the Chiefs. Besides limiting the Raiders to six points, they’ve rarely held opponents under 20 points and KC isn’t just any offense.
We have to start paying some attention to Zach Pascal ($3,800) at his price. He blew up for nearly 25 DK Points last weekend on six targets. It’s a small-ish sample with just 55 targets, but he also doesn’t cost much to throw in as a GPP flier.
Calvin Ridley ($8,500) is the second-most expensive receiver on the slate. Since sitting out against Denver, he’s averaged over 10.5 targets per game. With the Falcons likely in catch-up mode, it makes sense to target him again this week.
Min-Priced Wide Receivers? (Nearly) Min-Priced Wide Receivers!
Cam Sims ($3,300) saw eight targets last week against the Seahawks in a close game. If the spread is any indication, this game should play just as close for the Football Team. The only other (nearly) min-priced wide receiver worth consideration is Mecole Hardman ($3,100).
There’s a very clear tier-break from Kelce/Hill to everyone else in the KC offense. Hardman, at $3,100, needs one long touchdown to pay off, though. Again, we’re not talking about cash locks here but as a GPP flier, it makes sense.
