Christmas Day DFS Showdown Analysis: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Week 16’s Showdown for Christmas Eve features the Vikings visiting the Saints. My thoughts for Showdown are below, and be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of Minnesota at New Orleans.

I’m down on Drew Brees, who looked bad in his return from injury last week and will be without Michael Thomas. Tre’Quan Smith is questionable but even if he plays, I don’t like his price. Out of the healthy options, I’m interested in Emmanuel Sanders and min-priced Marquez Callaway. We also have Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Juwan Johnson, and Tommylee Lewis as WR3 dart-throws. The TD-dependant Jared Cook has been disappointing recently, but does have a good matchup

I really like Alvin Kamara here, but unfortunately so will most of the field. He’s projected as the most popular captain at 20% and 73-80% total. I’m happy to go with or over the field at CPT and differentiate elsewhere. One potential leverage spot is Latavius Murray. Ownership projections on him vary but he is likely to be between the 9-12th most owned. If Murray ends up with a touchdown or two at the expense of Kamara, he’d be necessary to take down a GPP. Taysom Hill is too expensive for me to justify, but if you use him, I would only do so in lineups without Brees.

Kirk Cousins is my preferred QB in this game. Simulations have him more likely to finish as the top overall player than Brees, but you get him at an ownership and price discount. He does face an elite defensive unit, but has been in good form and had more past attempts recently. I prefer Adam Thielen to Justin Jefferson in this matchup due to ownership, price, and how well the Saints defend deep passes.

I’m not very interested in Irv Smith Jr. outside of Vikings onslaughts and Cousins double-stacks. Kyle Rudolph is out, boosting Smith’s potential upside. Still, he’s overpriced, low-volume, and TD-dependent. The Minnesota punt WRs are the rarely targeted Chad Beebe and Olabisi Johnson. They also have a depth TE, Tyler Conklin.

At RB it is the Dalvin Cook show with Alexander Mattison in the concussion protocol. Ameer Abdullah will be the RB2 and isn’t expected to get much work, but is priced at the minimum. It wouldn’t take much production for him to end up in the optimal. He should be negatively boosted with Cook, but his salary makes it worth allowing them in some lineups together.

Ownership:

Behind Kamara is Cook with 11-15% CPT / 54-63% total. I think he is a fine target to consider going overweight on as well, especially with Mattison out.
My other favorite options for CPT are Cousins (6-10% CPT) and Thielen (7-9%).
I’m not very interested in Sanders (5-9% CPT / 31-44% total) at CPT but will use him as a flex play.
I’ll be very underweight on Brees (8-11% CPT / 51-60% total). I might fade him completely at CPT. One of my favorite leverage spots.
Two of my favorite flex plays are Murray and Callaway. It’s worth mentioning that Calloway’s projected ownership varies greatly by source (0-12% CPT / 0-50% total)

DK Values: