In Monday’s featured Showdown, the 12.5-point underdog Detroit Lions visit the Green Bay Packers. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

With this one projected to be so one-sided, the field would generally default to 4–2 and 5–1 Packers onslaughts. However, the Packers' offense was dreadful last week which could leave lingering Recency bias, while the Lions' offense was much better than expected.

For Green Bay, it’s the usual suspects of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones appearing as the best plays overall. Detroit looks to be led by D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, while Jared Goff has a weak projection for a starting QB.

Using three or four Lions in lineups will help differentiate from the field. In games where one team is such a big favorite, I like the idea of building for alternate game scripts, where the game is much closer than expected or the underdog pulls off an unlikely upset. I will update with further strategy once ownership projections are available.

(Updated) Ownership Strategy:

available. Adams is expected to be the most popular CPT near 20% and in 69-80% of all lineups. One source has Rodgers and Adams nearly tied for second closely behind at 15-16% CPT while another has Rodgers at 18% with Adams down at 12%. One of the larger discrepancies is  AJ Dillon, who projects between 28-52% in total ownership as a solid value play.

Jamaal Williams, Robert Tonyan, and any non-Adams WR on either team should be low owned. Mixing them in or even forcing at least one into every lineup will be a solid way to reduce duplicates, perhaps with a build rule to limit exposure to the ones who are most negatively correlated. Hockenson is one of my favorite options on this slate, coming in with only 26-31% projected ownership and under 5% CPT if you want to go that route. Something to consider, givin the high prices of the Packers studs, is that Adams could be the optimal CPT without Rodgers and visa versa. To account for this, I like the build idea of forcing either QB with a CPT pass-catcher rather than requiring it to be their own QB. We have no idea what to expect with this Detroit WR group, so taking a stand on some of the lower-owned or lower-projected guys could pay off.

DK Values

  • Trinity Benson ($1,000)
  • AJ Dillon ($3,000)

DK Leverage

  • Jamaal Williams ($7,200)
  • Robert Tonyan ($6,400)

DK Build Guide

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Max 2 Lions WRs
  • Max 1 dart throw group (or 1 per team if MME)
  • If CPT QB, force 2+ pass-catchers, including Lions RBs for Goff
  • If CPT RB, negative boost same team RBs and opposing DST/K
  • If Adams CPT, force one of Goff or Rodgers in FLEX
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Use ownership product to reduce duplicates (Pairing chalk with low-owned players is superior to using all medium-owned players paired together when considering similar cumulative ownership).

FD Values

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,000)
  • AJ Dillon ($7,000)

FD Leverage

  • Jamaal Williams ($10,500)
  • Robert Tonyan ($10,000)

FD Build Guide

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Single QB wins far more)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused at MVP while RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force both teams’ starting QBs. Lineups with both only win (30%)
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.