Packers vs 49ers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 3

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 3 Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Sunday Night Football game.

Green Bay	Rank	@	San Francisco	Rank
3.5		Spread	-3.5
23		Implied Total	26.5
19	26	Points/Gm	29	8
27.5	23	Points All./Gm	22	11
56.5	27	Plays/Gm	61.5	20
58	6	Opp. Plays/Gm	69.5	27
4.9	26	Off. Yards/Play	6.1	13
5.7	17	Def. Yards/Play	5.5	12
40.71%	18	Rush%	53.66%	3
59.29%	15	Pass%	46.34%	30
50.00%	29	Opp. Rush %	38.13%	9
50.00%	4	Opp. Pass %	61.87%	24

Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 10-7 (5-11-1 ATS) as a home favorite.
63.8% of the San Francisco receiving yards have been gained after the catch, the highest rate in the league.
Deebo Samuel leads all wide receivers in share of team wide receiver targets (62.5%), share of team air yards (64%), and target rate per route run (38.5%), while second in overall team target share (37.7%).
Davante Adams has five or more receptions in 14 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers bounced back after a poor Week 1 like he always has in recent seasons when he has a basement performance. Rodgers ended Week 2 as the QB5 (26.8 points) against the Lions, completing 81.5% of his passes for 9.4 yards per pass attempt and four touchdown passes.

This week, Rodgers will draw a 49ers defense that has started out allowing just 6.6 yards per pass attempt (eighth) and a 62.5% completion rate (fifth). But they have also opened up facing Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts while they have still allowed 0.45 passing points per attempt (20th). Rodgers is multiple tiers above the quality of passers they have opened against. Rodgers went into San Francisco last year and connected on 25-of-31 passes for 305 yards (9.8 Y/A) and four touchdown passes when the 49ers had an in-house COVID outbreak and multiple injuries on defense. That said, this 49ers secondary has yet to be tested by an efficient passer early in the season. Rodgers is still set up as a fantasy QB1 here.

Jimmy Garoppolo: The start of the season has opened on a positive note for Garoppolo. Despite a shaky first half last week, Garoppolo has conceded just four total snaps on offense to Trey Lance through two games and has yet to throw an interception after carrying a 2.5% interception rate or higher in each of the past four seasons.

Garoppolo has done exactly what he does, which is let the 49ers pass catchers generate yards after catch. For fantasy, he has closed as the QB24 (14.8 points) and QB13 (19.6 points) after he added 20 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground last week.

Garoppolo has been hit or sacked on 3.3% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league. The Packers have opened the season with the lowest pressure rate in the league (7.9%) under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry against the Saints and Lions, two teams that have had protection issues outside of the game that each did not face Green Bay.

On the back end, the Packers have allowed a QB3 scoring week to Jameis Winston (25.9 points) and a QB15 scoring week to Jared Goff (18.4 points). With the lack of pass rush the 49ers having to pace the scoreboard against the best offense they have faced to open the season, Garoppolo is a streaming option in Week 2.

Running Back

Aaron Jones: Wiping away the invisible Week 1 with the rest of the offense, Jones roared back in Week 2 with 115 yards on 23 carries to go along four touchdowns, three of which were receiving. He had six receiving touchdowns over his career prior to Monday night.

Outside of all the touchdowns, the noteworthy element of Jones in Week 2 was that he was the full-on alpha back in the offense that controlled snaps in every down and distance and near the end zone. We never even had a threat of A.J. Dillon being involved with the offense while in neutral game script. Before garbage time, Jones played 85% of the offensive snaps and ran a pass route on 72% of the team dropbacks. Any early-season concern for a potential split or sharing significant situational touches with Dillon were erased. With the workload Jones had in Week 2, he is a top-five back on the board, even though we know we are unlikely going to get three receiving scores again.

The 49ers opened the season allowing 214 yards and two touchdowns on 36 touches to Detroit backs in Week 1, but rebounded in Week 2, allowing 91 yards on 22 touches to the Eagles backs last week.

49ers RBs: The 49ers barely made it out of Week 2 with any healthy running backs after Elijah Mitchell (shoulder), JaMycal Hasty (ankle), and Trey Sermon (concussion) all picked up injuries at various points of the game last week.

Hasty has already been ruled out for Week 3 while we are waiting on updates on Mitchell and Sermon. With all of the injuries, the 49ers still have Trenton Cannon who they added last week, Kerryon Johnson on the practice squad, while they also signed Jacques Patrick yesterday.

Mitchell did return to the game last week and is considered day-to-day. While in the game, Mitchell had 19 touches for 53 yards against a good Philadelphia defensive front. Mitchell even had a potential touchdown reversed that was followed by a Garoppolo sneak for a score. While Mitchell did not stack many yards on his touches, he also did not really do anything to play himself out of future touches should he be ready to play Sunday night.

*On Friday, Mitchell practiced in a non-contact jersey while Sermon has also practiced all week. John Lynch stated that Mitchell was “very questionable” so we should see Sermon get his first real chance to have a runway to contribute as an RB3/FLEX.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams: After a pedestrian 5-56-0 line for his standards in Week 1, Adams also quickly rebounded on Monday night, catching 8-of-9 targets (33.3%) for 121 yards. Adams has been so good the past year and a half that this is actually the first time he has gone back-to-back full games played without a touchdown since the 2019 season.

The 49ers have allowed just 51.4% of the targets to opposing wideouts to be completed (first) and 6.9 yards per target (sixth) to receivers, but have faced the Lions and Eagles, who have quarterback play that is far from Aaron Rodgers and two teams that do not have a wideout even in the same orbit as Adams. When these teams played a year ago, Adams reeled in 10-of-12 targets for 173 yards and a score. Go right back to Adams as a top option at his position.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has taken full advantage of being healthy and the weird dynamic surrounding Brandon Aiyuk early in the season. As a byproduct of both, Samuel has received 52.2% (9-189-1) and 26.7% (6-93-0) of the team targets over the opening two games Samuel has 20 targets while the rest of the 49er receivers have combined for 12.

Dating back to last season, Samuel has now played seven full games. In those games, he has averaged 17.3 PPR points per game with 12.2 or more in all but one. The Packers have not faced strong receiver units in New Orleans and Detroit, but have allowed 2.5 points per target (29th) to wideouts over the opening two weeks. Samuel also comes with enough versatility to avoid shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander. As the focal of the passing game attached to a positive spot for Garoppolo, Samuel is a strong WR2.

Brando Aiyuk: Aiyuk went from 47% of the snaps up to 54% last week, running a pass route on 57.6% of the team dropbacks after 53.7% in Week 1. He still managed just two targets (1-6-0) while Mohamed Sanu (16 routes) and Trent Sherfield (12) worked into the rotation on over a third of the team dropbacks. Aiyuk cannot be played in lineups until he is elevated as a full-time player and stuck as a roster hold.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: The Prayer Yards king has been in on 71.4% of the Green Bay dropbacks. MVS is fifth in the NFL in air yards (268) on his 12 targets to open the season, but has caught just three passes for 17 actual yards in the counting stats department. In his 13 games without a touchdown dating back to last season, Valdes-Scantling has averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game. He did catch two passes in this matchup last year (both for touchdowns), but Valdes-Scantling is an all-or-nothing FLEX play and better single-game DFS option.

Tight End

George Kittle (TRUST): Kittle was held to just four catches for 17 yards last week on four targets. After a solid usage week in Week 1 when he was targeted on 31.3% of his routes and received 21.7% of the team targets, Kittle was targeted on just 13.8% of his routes and received 13.3% of the team targets in Week 2.

That could just be variance, but with five and four targets through two games, the reasons why Kittle fell so far behind Travis Kelce and Darren Waller in ADP have been illuminated early in the season. He just simply does not get the consistent volume as those players.

This is a good spot for a Kittle bounce-back in the efficiency department, however. The Packers have been beaten up by opposing tight ends early in the season, allowing tight ends to catch 14-of-18 targets for 105 yards and three touchdowns over the opening two games.

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan did what he does best Monday night, not seeing many targets, but making them all count. Tonyan was targeted just three times, but caught all three for 52 yards and a touchdown. Through two games, Tonyan has received just 12.1% and 11.1% of the team targets and has been targeted on just 17.1% of his routes (29th among tight ends). Tonyan has made a habit out of finding the end zone, but he is a touchdown-dependent TE2 with a basement floor when he doesn’t find the paint.

More Week 3 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: