Each week during the 2021 NFL season, Sports Info Solutions will highlight the spread of three games including Monday Night Football.
Buccaneers (-2.5) at Rams
The Rams will take a step up in opposing quarterback class these next three games against Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson after facing and beating Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz/Jacob Eason the first two weeks.
Aaron Donald and company rank sixth in pressures with 36 through two games, coincidentally one fewer than the Buccaneers, and have two of the 12 best games so far in Pass Rush Points Saved. The Rams also rank third in Pass Defense Points Saved per Play.
When the teams met last season in Week 11, the Rams won in Tampa on Matt Gay’s late field goal. Brady had his third-worst game of the season by Points Earned, was 0-for-6 on passes at least 20 yards downfield, and was intercepted by Jordan Fuller twice.
Matthew Stafford is enjoying a little more comfort in Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell’s offense than he did with the Lions. He had the third-most Passing Points Earned Per Play in Week 1 and the second-most Passing Points Earned Per Play in Week 2 (minimum 10 plays). Last season, Stafford threw about half of his pass attempts in 1- or 3-step drops. This season, he’s done so on only 18-of-56 pass attempts, increasing the use of longer dropbacks and designed rollouts.
Stafford has been pressured 11 times in two games. He was pressured on an average of 10 dropbacks per game last season. The Rams have done a better job of protecting him on 5- and-7 step drops than they did Goff last season. The opponents' pressure rate is 22% through two games compared to 41% in 2020.
Matthew Stafford Drop Types
| Drop Type | 2020 Usage | 2021 Usage | 2020 Pressure Rate | 2021 Pressure Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1- and 3-step | 51% | 31% | 24% | 22% |
| 5- and 7-step | 37% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Rollouts | 4% | 14% | 33% | 25% |
As noted above, the Buccaneers rank fifth in pressures this season with 37, one more than the Rams.
The combination of a new approach and minimal pressure has worked well for Stafford, who ranks second in Points Earned per play in the first two weeks, trailing only Tyrod Taylor.
The Buccaneers are a little concerned about their pass defense with cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting out with an elbow injury, but even what they might consider an ‘eh’ showing puts them 10th in Pass Defense Points Saved per play.
Keep an eye on running back Darrell Henderson’s status as he may miss the game or be limited by a rib injury. Sony Michel may have the potential to surprise. If we lower the qualifier to 50 rush attempts, Michel ranked second among running backs with an average of 5.7 yards per carry and was fifth in yards after contact per rush with 3.2 in 2020. Michel has 11 rush attempts this season and is the only player with at least 10 who hasn’t been hit at the line of scrimmage.
Football Team at Bills (-8)
Raise your hand if you had Taylor Heinicke with more Passing Points Earned through two games than Josh Allen.
Yes, it came against the Chargers and Giants, but dare we say that Heinicke looks … average. Hey, in the NFC East, unless the Cowboys run and hide, average might be formidable.
The thing that Washington has going for it is that its offensive line has put up two good games. The Football Team ranks sixth in Pass Blocking Points Earned and second in Run Blocking Points Earned. That combination puts them first overall in Blocking Points Earned.
HOWEVER …
Ron Rivera called this a measuring-stick game. His team looks to be on the short end.
Washington is going up against a defensive line that looks very good. The Bills dominated the Dolphins in Week 2, with their pass rush holding Miami to only 34% of plays with a positive EPA, the second-lowest percentage in a game in the first two weeks of the season. Seven different Bills have recorded a sack in the first two games.
Meanwhile, though Allen hasn’t done much throwing the ball yet, he could cause Washington significant trouble with his legs. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones didn’t just have a 46-yard run against the Football Team’s defense; he had eight other rushes for 49 yards.
Devin Singletary running against the Washington defense will be interesting to watch. Saquon Barkley had a 41-yard run against the Football Team last week but had only 16 yards on his 12 other carries.
Singletary has had back-to-back games averaging better than six yards per rush. He’s sixth in Rushing Points Earned Per Play among the 30 running backs with at least 20 carries through two weeks. He could certainly have a big game, but the Bills need to be wary. He’s fumbled three times, though the Bills recovered all three.
Washington’s players described themselves as dissatisfied with how they played against the Giants. They’ll need to be ready for an aggressive approach. The Bills have passed 10 of 12 times immediately after rushing for a first down and 11-of-13 times after passing for a first down. If Allen is efficient and Singletary is elusive, that might keep Washington on its heels the entire game.
Eagles at Cowboys (-4) (Monday Night Football)
If you’re an Eagles fan, you’re looking for reasons to believe in Jalen Hurts.
He gave you plenty in Week 1 against the Falcons but in Week 2 against the 49ers, his throwing regressed and he passed more like the quarterback who had four straight games with a sub-57% completion percentage to end 2020. His best path to victory in this game may be with his legs, as he rushed for 62 yards in Week 1 and 82 in Week 2.
The Eagles will be protecting Hurts a little differently. Right guard Brandon Brooks is out with a strained pectoral muscle and will be replaced by second-round pick Landon Dickerson.
Brooks ranked 10th in Blocking Points Earned per play in 2019 (he didn’t play in 2020). Dickerson has a good pedigree. He played collegiately at Alabama in 2020 where his blown block rate ranked third among SEC offensive linemen who played at least 300 snaps.
The Cowboys did not face a running quarterback in either Week 1 (Tom Brady) or Week 2 (Justin Herbert) and Hurts’s rushing may be the best way to pose a challenge for Cowboys rookie linebacker/defensive end Micah Parsons, who led all NFL players with eight pressures on 25 pass rushes while filling in for Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory in Week 2.
Throwing the ball against the Cowboys corners may be a challenge.
Top 5 Defensive Backs in @SportsInfo_SIS Total Points Saved metric thru Week 2 contains: 2 Cowboys and 2 Saints
-Carlton Davis – 10
-Paulson Adebo – 10
-Trevon Diggs – 9
-Jourdan Lewis – 8
-Marshon Lattimore – 8— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) September 22, 2021
As for Dak Prescott, his 23-of-27 in Sunday’s win sounds a little better than it actually was in terms of value. He ranked 25th, only one spot better than Hurts, in Passing Points Earned Per Play in Week 2 (minimum 10 attempts) after ranking 11th in that stat in Week 1.
The Eagles' defense may present the best hope for victory if it can keep the game low scoring.
It has allowed 4.6 yards per coverage snap, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. And the run defense has allowed a broken or missed tackle on only 4% of running attempts, the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL. Ezekiel Elliott does not have a broken or missed tackle on his 27 rushes this season, though Tony Pollard has three on 16 rushes and is coming off a breakout game in Week 2.
But Philadelphia will be hindered by the absence of Brandon Graham, who is out for the season with a torn Achilles. When Graham was on the field in his Pro Bowl 2020 season, the Eagles defense allowed -3 EPA per 60 plays. When he was off the field, it allowed damage at the rate of 2.4 EPA per 60. The opposing offense’s bust percentage on pass plays was 19% with him on the field, 10% with him off it (bust percentage defined as the percentage of plays with a -1 EPA or worse).
