What do you need after a 15-hour day of incredibly weird football? A 4,000-word column recapping it all.
1. Ravens Win Different Yet The Same
Ravens-Chargers didn’t quite turn into the high-level quarterback duel many were expecting. The 34-6 win by Baltimore wasn’t exactly a passing showcase for either quarterback but the outcome did show what the Ravens are the superior team at the moment — the ability to rely on other parts of the team to come through.
The Ravens’ defense came into the game ranked just 24th in DVOA. The Ravens have been in an odd place on defense. Relative to the rest of the league, they still blitz and play man coverage at high rates (seventh and fifth, respectively, through the first five weeks per TruMedia) but they haven’t gone as heavy as previous seasons. Last year, the Ravens had the highest blitz rate with the fourth-highest rate of man coverage.
Even against the Chargers, the Ravens didn’t go crazy on the blitz but they picked their spots with some different looks to confuse Justin Herbert. Herbert has already become a quarterback worthy of the “beware of blitzing” warning. This season he had been one of the best throwing against the blitz, but the Ravens were able to force Herbert into some mistakes and rushed throws.
Justin Herbert vs Blitz, 2021
| Weeks | Blitz % | Comp/Att | YPA | aDOT | EPA/DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | 21% | 28/46 (60.9%) | 7.65 | 7.93 | 0.32 |
| 6 | 28.6% | 5/11 (45.4%) | 4.82 | 5.82 | -0.52 |
On this third-and-5 in the first quarter, the Ravens came out in Dime personnel. Baltimore used all those defensive backs against a condensed formation to confuse Herbert and set up the pressure. Slot corner Tavon Young (25) lined up as a deep safety while safety Brandon Stephens (21) lined up in the A-gap and Deshon Elliott (32) lined up in the slot across from Jalen Guyton (15).
Baltimore gave a heavy pressure look but at the snap, Stephens and Justin Houston (50) dropped back into coverage as Elliott came from the slot as a free rusher for the sack.
The Chargers struggled on early downs, which isn’t necessarily new but they put themselves into bad situations that made third downs harder to convert and allowed the Ravens to disrupt the timing of what the Chargers wanted to do on those third downs.
Early in the season, and even heading back to Herbert’s rookie year, the Chargers have slow-played early downs with the idea that getting to third and manageable can work when the quarterback and other pieces on the roster have the ability to convert. That’s taken a little further this year with some added aggressiveness on fourth down. But the problem with relying on third and manageable is that sometimes those opportunities won’t be there. Over the first five weeks, the Chargers averaged 6.6 yards to go on third down, which was the 12th lowest in the league and they converted at a 48.5% rate, the fourth-highest in the league.
The Ravens were able to shut down the early down plays, which gave the Chargers longer third downs and the same magic to convert was much harder to bring up.
Chargers Third Downs, 2021
| Weeks | Avg. Yards To Go (rank) | Yards Per Play (rank) | EPA/Play (rank) | Conversion% (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | 6.6 (12) | 7.51 (2) | 0.35 (4) | 48.5% (4) |
| 6 | 8.1 | 2.25 | -0.47 | 25% |
Early in the second half, after the Ravens scored a touchdown to bring the game to 24-6, the Chargers faced a fourth-and-1 from their own 19-yard line and they decided to go for it. The decision was controversial to some, even though the move was backed up by multiple win probability models.
Los Angeles didn’t convert, which raised more questions about the decision, but it’s hard to fault that type of aggression when the team is trailing by that much at the start of the second half. If there is a call to question, it’s that the Chargers started that drive with a run by Joshua Kelley for a two-yard gain. It’s an incredibly conservative call that goes against the aggressive nature of the eventual fourth down try. That disconnect between early down play calls and late-down aggressiveness hadn’t killed the Chargers before this week, but it finally caught up to them.
Baltimore was also able to take advantage of the Chargers’ biggest weakness on the other side of the ball — a defensive that just doesn’t have the talent to hold up against strong running teams. Each of a three-headed zombie veteran back rotation consisting of Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and Le’Veon Bell scored a touchdown in the game.
After the Ravens got away from motion and heavier personnel packages in order to improve the passing game, they went back to their reliable strategy on the ground in this game. Murray and the Ravens opened the scoring with a 21 personnel run that had Devin Duvernay motion back and forth before the snap.
At the start of the fourth quarter, the Ravens used a 22 personnel look to run an option play with motion from Patrick Ricard to become the lead blocker for a nine-yard Devonta Freeman touchdown.
The Ravens didn’t have to rely on the passing game, but there were flashes when needed, Mark Andrews found openings in the defense and Rashod Bateman showed signs of a receiver who can grow his role throughout the season.
Heading into this game, both teams were carried by quarterbacks playing out of this world. For Baltimore, they proved they still have the pieces that can step up when that quarterback play isn’t there. The Chargers aren’t quite there yet and that might be the biggest difference between how these teams contend in the AFC this season.
2. The Cardinals Have Kyler Murray, And That's Enough
So much of the Arizona Cardinals’ offense has been about Kyler Murray making a play, so maybe it wasn’t too much of a surprise that the offense would be able to keep moving even while head coach Kliff Kingsbury among others were forced to miss the game due to positive COVID tests.
In a 37-14 win over the Cleveland Browns, Murray consistently showed he has the ability to create more answers to the problems created. On Arizona’s first drive of the game, the Cardinals faced a third-and-6 at their own 30-yard line. Murray went to the line, noticed a light box that only featured rookie linebacker Jerimiah Owusu-Koramoah to the left of the center, and called for a draw. Chase Edmonds had a huge hole and went 40 yards.
Six plays later, the Cardinals converted a 21-yard touchdown on third-and-19. Arizona came out in 10 personnel with a 3×1 set. Christian Kirk was the inside receiver on the trips side to the left. Kirk and Rondale Moore ran a scissors concept and Kirk was able to cut his corner route underneath his defender to create an opening for Murray to throw the touchdown.
On the following drive, the Cardinals faced third-and-goal from the 13-yard line. Arizona caught Cleveland sending an aggressive slot blitz. Murray immediately identified there was no defender over DeAndre Hopkins in the slot and got the ball to his best receiver before the safety could come down and replace the slot. Hopkins made multiple defenders miss on his way to the end zone for a 14-0 lead.
Those are the kinds of plays the Cardinals have been able to make. On two drives, they converted touchdowns from a third-and-19 and a third-and-goal from the 13.
Cleveland was aggressive on defense throughout the game and blitzed Murray on 37.5% of his dropbacks, per TruMedia. Against the blitz, Murray went 9-of-11 for 125 yards and 1.04 EPA per dropback.
Some of that was Murray being Murray, but the Cardinals were overall well prepared to take advantage of Cleveland’s secondary off these plays. Midway through the third quarter, already up 23-14, the Cardinals faced a third-and-10 from their own 46-yard line. Arizona came out in empty from 10 personnel. The Browns brought a blitz with a delayed sixth rusher once the running back stayed in to block. Down the field, the Cardinals sent Kirk on a crossing route that pulled down safety John Johnson (43). That left a wide-open middle of the field for A.J. Green on a post behind it. Green took the pass for a 34-yard gain.
The Cardinals were able to hold up on defense throughout the game, leaving little room on the ground for Kareem Hunt and forcing Baker Mayfield into mistakes. Mayfield’s 8.4 yards per attempt look nice but that was greatly aided by a 57-yard Hail Mary at the end of the first half. Mayfield averaged -0.23 EPA per dropback and finished with a QBR of 34.7.
After a bounceback week in a shootout against the Chargers, Mayfield again showed some hesitation and inconsistency in the pocket. Mayfield was hit six times and sacked five times with two fumbles. J.J. Watt, Markus Golden, and Jordan Hicks each had two hits for the defense.
All five of Mayfield's sacks came on straight dropbacks and some were forced as Mayfield held the ball for too long. Two sacks came in 2.2 seconds after the snap, per TruMedia/PFF, but the three others came at least 4.4 seconds after the snap.
There were still some nice throws throughout the game. Mayfield appears to have great chemistry with Donovan Peoples-Jones and Odell Beckham had his best game since returning to the lineup, even with a third down drop.
But Mayfield has continually created some problems for himself this season and against a defense with speed such as the Cardinals, those mistakes can become dangerous. That’s the biggest difference between these two teams. One quarterback has been able to bail his team out of problems consistently and the other has often been the reason those problems are created.
3. Unlocking the Raiders
Jon Gruden was a bad head coach with too much personnel control. Just sticking to on the field, many of his moves and decisions were poorly planned and executed. One thing Gruden did well was design the offense. Now even that looks like he was holding the Raiders back since Las Vegas had a 34-point offensive explosion in the first post-Gruden game of the season.
All of the pieces on the Raiders offense looked like they belonged and had a role, something that wasn’t the case even when the offense was scoring points earlier in the year. Derek Carr averaged 12.4 yards per attempt and 0.52 EPA per play with an 85.2 QBR. Carr went back to slinging the ball down the field with an average depth of target of 11.85, which was the third-highest among quarterbacks this week.
At the end of the first half, Las Vegas threw a 31-touchdown on an out-and-up to Kenyan Drake out of the backfield.
Drake was signed to a two-year/$11 million deal in the offseason and he hadn’t exactly been able to make a splash on the offense over the first five weeks despite starting two games. Drake only played 21% of the Raiders’ snaps in this game but had his first two touchdowns of the season.
The Raiders also kept with throwing the ball deep to Henry Ruggs. Ruggs had three catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. Both his 48-yard touchdown reception and 40-yard catch took advantage of winning with an inside release against a cornerback playing with outside leverage.
Ruggs might not be a target hog but he’s consistently shown the ability to get open downfield this season. That’s a plus because his biggest strength can still be as a short-to-intermediate receiver. Because of his speed, Ruggs was pigeonholed as a deep burner, but we’ll see if more opportunities open up for Ruggs with a new playcaller.
Perhaps the most promising aspect for the Raiders was a pass rush that came back to life. Las Vegas tallied 17 quarterback hits. FIve came from Maxx Crosby, who was in on a sack for all five of them, but only officially had three sacks of Teddy Bridgewater because four were split as half sacks.
It remains to be seen how much of this success will carry over to the rest of the season, but in a game where the Raiders could have easily come out flare and dejected, they looked like they had more of a purpose than in any game this season. At 4-2, that could make them a team worth monitoring.
4. Patrick Mahomes Hasn’t Been Figured Out
The Kansas City Chiefs also don’t regret his contract. Did we get that out of the way now? Great.
In a 31-13 win over the Washington Football Team, we got a full season worth of the Chiefs Experience. Kansas City marched the ball down the field only to be undone by wild turnovers. Patrick Mahomes threw another two interceptions, including a fumbled snap Mahomes attempted to pick up and throw away for the ball to slip in the air and land in a Washington defender’s hands.
That play literally had some asking if Mahomes had been figured out.
We’ve written many times in this space about how opposing defenses are trying to attack Mahomes with two-high shells to stop the deep pass. The Chiefs have mostly adapted and have taken what the defense gives, but this wasn’t even that. It was a ball that slipped. Many of the turnovers have been wild plays. Mahomes nearly threw a pick early in the game when Tyreek Hill slipped on a route and Mahomes threw it where Hill was supposed to be, but it was right in a defender’s chest only to be dropped. Things have been weird for the Chiefs this season.
But even with all that, Kansas City still ranks first in yards per drive, points per drive, and EPA per play. They’re still very much doing Chiefs things. Mahomes hasn’t suddenly started throwing the ball to linebackers he doesn’t see or air mailing deep balls for easy interceptions. The Chiefs are going to be fine. All it took was a few drives to take advantage of a Washington defense that hasn’t been able to stop any offense so far this season.
Even with the interceptions, Mahomes averaged 0.22 EPA per dropback, according to TruMedia, which was the seventh-best mark in the league in Week 6.
The defense looked passable against an offense that wanted to make mistakes and all the defense needs to look is passable. Things are going to be fine for the Chiefs and unless there is a formula to force three weird turnovers per game, nothing has been figured out.
5. Cowboys Keep Getting It Done
There might not be a quarterback playing at a higher level than Dak Prescott right now. In a 35-29 overtime win against the New England Patriots, Prescott again got through a blitz-heavy attack virtually unscathed.
While defenses are starting to back off of blitzing the league’s best quarterbacks, they haven’t stopped sending extra rushers at Prescott. Per TruMedia/PFF, the Patriots blitzed on 30.8% of Prescott’s dropbacks. He’s been blitzed on a league-high 36.1% of dropbacks this season. All three of Prescott’s touchdowns and lone interception in the game came against a New England blitz.
Prescott has been so good, he even made a goal-line fade look smooth — a one-yard pass to CeeDee Lamb that looked more like a condensed go-route with separation in stride rather than a low-percentage jump ball in the corner of the end zone.
Right now, Prescott and Kellen Moore are in sync, spreading the ball around in different formations and personnel grouping. Both tight ends had roles in the passing game today. Noah Brown stepped in as a contributor and Cedrick Wilson showed he could be a meaningful piece of a wide receiver rotation.
What could potentially hold the Cowboys back while everything else is working is Mike McCarthy. McCarthy settled for a field goal on a fourth-and-2 from the New England 33-yard line with 2:42 left in the fourth quarter when down by one. The kick was missed.
McCarthy was bailed out by a Trevon Diggs pick-6 on the next drive but the Cowboys gave the lead right back when the Patriots went back to targeting Diggs and a bad angle by safety Damontae Kazee allowed a 75-yard touchdown to Kendrick Bourne.
Those two plays highlight the ups and downs of Trevon Diggs in coverage this year.
83 cornerbacks have played at least 100 coverage snaps.
Among them, Trevon Diggs ranks:
– 1st in Adj. Yards allowed per coverage snap (PFR formula, factoring TD and INT)
– 72nd in yards allowed per coverage snap
– 71st in targets per coverage snap(data per @SportsInfo_SIS)
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) October 14, 2021
After a field goal tied the game in regulation, thanks to a 24-yard pass to Lamb on a third-and-25, the Cowboys got Lamb open again for a 35-yard touchdown to win the game in overtime. The Patriots had a Cover 0 that was neutralized by the wide play-action. Lamb got a free inside release against Jalen Mills (2) and was able to outrun the defensive back into the end zone.
6. Sean McVay Went For It
Midway through the second quarter of an eventual 38-11 blowout, the Rams faced a fourth-and-1 on the Giants’ 3-yard line, up 7-3. Sean McVay kept the offense out on the field.
The Rams came out in empty with a bunch to the right and Robert Woods ran motion and took a fake sweep at the snap. Van Jefferson cleared out the two remaining defensive backs to the right side and Cooper Kupp was wide-open in the flare for a touchdown.
The ease in which Kupp was open was not surprising, but is significant. With how often McVay is able to scheme up those types of easy completions in short-yardage situations, it becomes more perplexing that he was been one of the league’s most conservative coaches on fourth downs since he took over the Rams.
It’s not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things, especially in this game where Matthew Stafford finished with 0.55 EPA per dropback to increase his league-lead in EPA on the season, and Kupp caught nine passes for 130 yards. But in closer games, McVay could be getting free yards and more drives if he continued to keep his offense on the field at a higher rate on fourth downs.
7. Aaron Rodgers Owns The Bears
In Aaron Rodgers’s last 16 games against the Chicago Bears, he’s completed 65.4% of his passes for 3,722 yards, 38 touchdowns, two interceptions, and 0.24 EPA per dropback, per TruMedia.
In Rodgers’s MVP season in 2020, he completed 70.7% of his passes for 4,299 yards, 45 touchdowns, five interceptions, and 0.28 EPA per dropback.
For teams Rodgers has at least 100 pass attempts against since 2013, he has a higher EPA per dropback against the Detroit Lions (0.25), Atlanta Falcons (0.37), and Philadelphia Eagles (0.42).
As bad as this might be, Bears fans, it actually could be worse. That likely doesn’t make Sunday’s 24-14 Packers win any better, but know you’re not alone.
8. Chart of the day
Kirk Cousins has quietly had a good season. Not even in a typical Cousins way. He’s been better on straight dropbacks (0.20 EPA per dropback) than with play-action (-0.04) this year. Overall, he’s 10th in EPA per dropback among quarterbacks and he’s found a way to make some big plays, including the 27-yard game-winner to K.J. Osborne in overtime for a 34-28 win over the Carolina Panthers.
9. Play of the day
On a fourth-and-1 from the Detroit 40-yard line, the Bengals decided to go for it. With Tee Higgins in motion, they snuck Joe Mixon out of the backfield, and with Ja’Marr Chase racing in front to lead block, the play went for a touchdown during a 34-11 rout of the Lions.
10. Is It Time To Worry About The Dolphins?
The Miami Dolphins lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 23-20. That alone would be worth concern but the Dolphins really shouldn’t be in this spot. After a 10-6 finish last season that had them 12th in DVOA, Miami was expected to take another leap forward in 2021. That hasn’t happened and it’s gone quickly the other way for a team that sits at 1-5.
An injury to Tua Tagovailoa plays a part and even while the second-year quarterback looked fine in his return, there hasn’t been much more than fine on the resume so far. So much of his production has been from play-action and RPOs. He went 15-of-20 for 166 yards off play-action against the Jaguars, per TruMedia/PFF. It doesn’t help that Tagovailoa will always be compared to the quarterback taken the pick after him, Justin Herbert.
If the quarterback was the only issue, the Dolphins would be in a fine spot but that’s not the case either. The Dolphins were without Xavien Howard and Byron Jones in this game but neither has played well so far this season. Among 83 cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps through Week 5, Howard ranked 79th in Adjusted Yards allowed per coverage snap and Jones ranked 62nd. This is a defense that has remained tied to the blitz and man coverage approach but neither are working as well in 2021 as they did in 2020.
There are also resource allocation questions. The Dolphins largely ignored the offensive line during the offseason, save for second-round pick Liam Eichenberg, who is now the starting left tackle while the expected left tackle from the offseason, 2020 first-round pick Austin Jackson gets moved into guard. Eichenberg may be a long-term answer but he just had one of the worst Pass Block Win Rates for a tackle against the Jaguars.
The trade-up for Jaylen Waddle is also of note, but it’s not as big of a swing when you consider the trade was in a larger deal with the San Francisco 49ers so the Dolphins did acquire San Francisco’s first-round pick as well as the 49ers’ 2023 first-round pick. Still, the optics aren’t good that the current pick that would be sent to the Eagles is third overall.
What’s more concerning is the usage for Waddle, the player Miami had to stay in the top-10 to acquire. Waddle finally had some schemed-up plays inside the red zone against Jacksonville, but his 5.64 average depth of target is insane for a potential intermediate-deep threat.
Miami is in a spot where the process has mostly been sound but the execution and cohesion have been off. It’s hard to even envision a best-case scenario for the Dolphins given the start. Do they hope Tagovailoa catches fire and the team finished somewhere around 8-9? Is that progress?
The Dolphins have a lot to think about and reconsider from now through the offseason. It starts with general manager Chris Grier and head coach Brian Flores. If things don't change soon, it might end there too.
