College Football DFS Preview: Week 10

In this college football DFS preview, I’ll break down the DraftKings Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.

Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options that come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.

All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.

Key Play-Calling Data

Color Code: Blue: Top 20th Percentile | Green: 60-79th | Yellow: 40-59th | Orange: 20-39th | Red: 0-19th

CFB DFS PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND

QB Sam Hartman, Wake Forest at North Carolina

Salary: $10,000

This is the highest salary on the slate, but we should still consider Sam Hartman against a surprisingly vulnerable North Carolina defense. The Tar Heels are allowing 29.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (ranked 126th) and have allowed over 35 points three times. 

UNC’s mediocre pass-rush has been one of their issues, ranking 68th in the nation in pressure rate. In a clean pocket, Hartman averages 12.5 yards per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions, so this could be another big game for Wake’s Heisman candidate. 

QB Malik Willis, Liberty at Ole Miss

Salary: $9,300

In a potential shootout, Malik Willis has an elevated ceiling this week, but also due to Ole Miss’s inability to contain mobile quarterbacks.

The Rebels are allowing 39.3 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, ranked 111th, and that’s despite averaging 2.9 sacks per game. 

Some notable quarterbacks against Ole Miss this season:

• Arkansas’s K.J. Jefferson: 53.5 fantasy points, 85 rush yards
• Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker: 33.1 fantasy points, 108 rush yards
• Louisville’s Malik Cunningham: 30.0 fantasy points, 79 rush yards

QB Tanner Mordecai, SMU at Memphis

Salary: $9,000

Despite being the fourth-highest scoring quarterback in the country, Tanner Mordecai only carries the fifth-highest starting-quarterback salary on this slate. This is especially surprising considering the favorable opponent, as Memphis ranks 97th in points allowed to quarterbacks 一 and that’s despite a game against Navy (7.4 quarterback points).

In games decided by a touchdown or less, Mordecai is averaging 41.7 pass attempts per game (SMU is favored by 4.5). Stacking Mordecai with at least one of his receivers seems like an obvious strategy on this slate.  

QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State at Nebraska

Salary: $8,600

Considering the ceiling we’ve seen from C.J. Stroud (three games with 33 or more fantasy points), this salary looks like an incredible value. 

The discount is partially due to Nebraska’s defense, which is allowing just 13.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, ranked 15th in the nation. That’s a misleading number, however, due to the poor quarterback competition the Huskers have faced. 

According to Sports Info Solutions, Nebraska ranks 100th in pressure rate (28.2%) and 94th in completion percentage allowed at 10 or more yards downfield (50.7%). 

Stroud should have no issue picking apart this defense, and should be paired with at least one of his receivers in lineups. 

RB Abram Smith, Baylor at TCU

Salary: $7,300

The TCU defense ranks 118th in explosive rush rate allowed (percentage of carries for 10 or more yards) at 16.6%. Opposing running backs are also scoring 36.7 fantasy points per game against the Horned Frogs, ranked 121st.

In recent weeks, Abram Smith has taken control of the Baylor backfield with 51 touches over his last two games. 

Since Smith doesn’t play a big role in the passing game 一 only 14% route rate, compared to Trestan Ebner’s 36% rate 一 he’s somewhat game-script dependent. The Bears are seven-point favorites, so this should be an ideal spot to roster Smith. 

Ebner’s reasonable salary ($4,100) also puts him on our radar against this dreadful TCU defense. 

RB Jaylen Warren, Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Salary: $6,400

Over the last two weeks, Jaylen Warren’s salary has dropped $1,600. He’s been held under 10 fantasy points in consecutive games, but one was essentially a day off against Kansas (only nine carries) and the other came against an elite Iowa State run defense. 

Oklahoma State primarily runs the ball in 11 personnel and Iowa State ranks 10th in yards per carry allowed versus 11 一 West Virginia ranks 39th. 

Though West Virginia’s run defense is still respectable, we’ve already seen Warren put 29.9 fantasy points up on Baylor, which ranks 44th in yards per attempt versus 11 personnel. 

With Oklahoma State as 3.5-point favorites, we should expect an ideal game script for a heavy volume for Warren. 

RB Zamir White, Georgia vs. Missouri

Salary: $7,300

Any running back with a pulse is worth rostering against Missouri’s run defense, one of the worst in SEC history. Opposing running backs are scoring 46.5 fantasy points per game against the Tigers, second-most in the country. 

Georgia uses a committee approach in the backfield, but Zamir White does hold a clear edge, accounting for 37% of carries by running backs in SEC play. James Cook ($5,900) has 23% of the carries in conference play and should also be on our radar.

WR Josh Downs, North Carolina vs. Wake Forest

Salary: $8,700

On this elevated salary, it’s getting harder to justify rostering Josh Downs in tournaments, but he has topped 30 fantasy points three times, so he’s still worth throwing into a few lineups. 

Though Wake Forest is known for its offense, the defense has been solid. Most notably, the Demon Deacons held Virginia to just 17 points 一 an offense that’s topped 30 in every other game. 

WR1s are averaging just 16.7 points against Wake, ranked 35th. So I’ll be using Downs in some game-stack lineups, but probably avoiding him otherwise. He’s not likely to be valuable on this salary unless this game is a wild shootout. 

WR Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest at North Carolina

Salary: $8,000

This is the highest salary of the year for Jaquarii Roberson, so he’s getting harder to roster, but is still worth consideration against North Carolina. 

The Tar Heels are allowing an explosive pass rate (percentage of attempts producing 20 or more yards) of 12%, ranked 99th in the nation. 

Both Roberson and A.T. Perry ($7,200) are big-play threats for the Demon Deacons and could go off in any matchup. Roberson leads the team with a 25% target share, but Perry isn’t far behind at 22%. 

WR David Bell, Purdue vs. Michigan State

Salary: $7,400

A 44-point outburst versus Iowa proved David Bell is matchup proof. And this Michigan State defense is not nearly as strong as that Hawkeyes unit he lit up a few weeks ago. 

WR1s are averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game at the Spartans, ranked 118th overall, and three receivers have posted at least 35 points. 

WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State at Nebraska

Salary: $7,100

We haven’t had many breakout performances from Garrett Wilson this year 一 just two games over 20 points 一 but we can’t ignore his usage in this explosive offense. Wilson leads Ohio State with a 26% target share and sees a strong 12.4 average depth of target (aDOT). 

We should also consider Chris Olave ($6,900) with a similar 22% target share and 15.0 aDOT. Rostering both is also a reasonable strategy 一 they have each topped 17 fantasy points in three games, including the Maryland game in which they both topped 25 points. 

WR Danny Gray, SMU at Memphis

Salary: $6,200

This is the must-roster player of the week. Danny Gray leads SMU with a 21.1% target share and has been their WR1 in fantasy scoring in four of eight games. 

WR1s are averaging 25 fantasy points per game against Memphis, ranked 125th in the nation. SMU has an implied total of 38.3, giving Gray a huge ceiling in this matchup. 

WR Demario Douglas, Liberty at Ole Miss

Salary: $6,000

Since returning from an ankle injury two weeks ago, Demario Douglas has just four receptions on six targets. However, he still ran routes on 83% of the team’s pass plays in those games. 

Perhaps he was being used as a decoy while less than 100%, but he’s now four weeks removed from the initial injury and likely closer to full health. 

Prior to the injury, Douglas led Liberty with a 29% target share, and there’s obviously extra incentive for the Flames to boost the usage of their best offensive weapon against an SEC opponent. 

CFB DFS VALUE PLAYS

QB Sean Clifford, Penn State at Maryland

Salary: $6,000

This is the strangest salary of the week. In seven full games, Sean Clifford has topped 20 fantasy points four times and primarily carried a salary over $8,000 prior to his injury against Iowa. 

Clifford appeared to be back to full strength last week against Ohio State, and posted a respectable 18.3 points against the Buckeyes. 

The Maryland defense ranks 78th in pressure rate (30.8%), according to Sports Info Solutions. Clifford has been terrible when pressured (3.3 yards per attempt) but is just fine when his offensive line holds up (9.1 yards per attempt).

QB Aidan O’Connell, Purdue vs. Michigan State

Salary: $5,600

With so many great quarterbacks on this slate, Aidan O’Connell would strictly be a contrarian punt play. He has only one game over 20 fantasy points, but the Michigan State defense should allow for a decent performance. 

The Spartans defense ranks 84th in pressure rate (30.2%) and 87th in completion percentage allowed at 10 or more yards downfield (50%), according to Sports Info Solutions. 

RB Snoop Conner, Ole Miss vs. Liberty

Salary: $5,800

In five of its last six games, Liberty has allowed at least 30 fantasy points to running backs, including 30.4 to a truly terrible UMass team last week. And against its only Power 5 opponent, Syracuse, Liberty surrendered 30.6 fantasy points to Sean Tucker. 

Unfortunately, there isn't a clear distribution of carries in the Ole Miss backfield with Snoop Conner and Henry Parish Jr. ($4,900) sharing the load in recent weeks. 

Inside the opponent’s five-yard line, Conner has eight carries to Parish’s four, so Conner’s ceiling might be slightly higher, but the salary reflects that appropriately. Having some exposure to both running backs in this matchup makes sense. 

RB Kendre Miller, TCU vs. Baylor

Salary: $5,700

TCU starting running back Zach Evans missed last week’s game and was in a walking boot on the sideline. Presumably, he’s unavailable again, though that has not been confirmed. 

Assuming Evans is out, Kendre Miller gets another start after averaging 7.3 yards per carry against Kansas State last week. 

Baylor is a seven-point favorite, but Miller also had four receptions and ran routes on 34% of TCU’s pass plays, according to Sports Info Solutions, so he probably isn’t game-script dependent. 

RB Ky Thomas, Minnesota vs. Illinois

Salary: $5,000

Minnesota lost its third starting running back to a season-ending injury last week (Bryce Williams). Ky Thomas and Mar’Keise Irving ($6,300) will be the next guys up. 

Over the last two weeks, Ky Thomas appears to have taken control of the backfield 一 he even out-touched Williams two weeks ago. Though Minnesota won both games easily, in the first half over the last two weeks, Thomas has 29 carries to Irving’s 13, so it appears as though he’s in line to be the lead back in this game.

Linebacker Derik LeCaptain (not available on DraftKings) is now the third-string running back, so we should expect a heavy dose of both Thomas and Irving, even if the Gophers build a big second-half lead. 

Minnesota is averaging 47.5 rush attempts per game (fifth most), so both ball carriers should be on our radar, with an edge to Thomas. 

RB John Lovett, Penn State at Maryland

Salary: $3,300

Rostering a Penn State running back is a huge risk, but on this salary John Lovett’s upside is immense. 

Lovett, a Baylor transfer, led the Penn State backfield in snaps last week against Ohio State and may have overtaken Noah Cain ($4,200) as the primary ball carrier. 

Lovett has struggled to stay healthy, but in his five games played he has carried the ball 41 times compared to Cain’s 47. 

Maryland is allowing 46.5 fantasy points per game to running backs, ranked 129th, so even in a timeshare, Lovett is worth rostering on this near-floor salary. 

WR Quentin Johnson, TCU vs. Baylor

Salary: $5,900

Out of respect for Baylor’s defense, Quentin Johnson’s salary gets a nice discount this week, dropping $1,100. 

However, Baylor’s downfield pass defense has actually been a liability this season. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Bears rank 124th in completion percentage allowed at 10 or more yards downfield. 

Johnson sees 69% of his targets at least 10 yards downfield, so he’ll have an opportunity to take advantage of Baylor’s biggest weakness on defense. 

WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Ohio State at Nebraska

Salary: $5,800

As Ohio State’s primary slot receiver, Jaxson Smith-Njigba is the clear-cut third option in the passing game, but still sees an 18% target share. 

Nebraska ranks 84th in the nation in yards per target allowed to slot receivers (8.4) and 82nd yards per game (97.1). 

WR Rashee Rice, SMU at Memphis

Salary: $5,600

In five of eight games, Rashee Rice has been SMU’s WR1 or WR2, while reaching at least 15 fantasy points each of those games. 

WR1s are averaging 25 fantasy points per game against Memphis (ranked 125th) and WR2s average 16.2 (124th). 

Rostering multiple SMU receivers is definitely justifiable this week. Reggie Roberson ($5,700) is also in the mix, though he has finished as SMU’s WR1 or WR2 only twice and carries a higher salary than Rice. 

WR CJ Daniels, Liberty at Ole Miss

Salary: $5,300

Liberty’s home-run hitter is CJ Daniels, who leads the team with a 15.9 aDOT. 46% of his targets have been at least 15 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions. 

Ole Miss is allowing a 50% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 110th. 

Daniels is a boom-or-bust option 一 he has a low of 1.7 points, high of 35.5 一 but this is clearly a matchup in which he’s capable of hitting the ceiling. 

WR Chris Autman-Bell, Minnesota vs Illinois

Salary: $4,900

Minnesota’s receiving corps was banged up early in the year, but since Chris Autman-Bell and Mike Brown-Stephens ($4,100) were both back on the field in Week 5, Autman-Bell leads the team with a 33% target share. Brown-Stephens follows him at 21%.

Though Minnesota is a run-heavy offense, Illinois is allowing 19.9 fantasy points per game to WR1s (ranked 84th), so Autman-Bell has an elevated ceiling in this matchup. 

Autman-Bell is also used as a downfield weapon in the Gophers’ offense, and Illinois ranks 89th in completion rate allowed 10 or more yards downfield (48.7%), per Sports Info Solutions. 

WR Jahcour Pearson, Ole Miss vs. Liberty

Salary: $4,900

The Ole Miss receiving corps remains a mess of injuries, and Jahcour Pearson is the only healthy, proven receiver on the roster. 

Last week, Pearson ran routes on 38 of Ole Miss’ 42 pass plays, according to Sports Info Solutions, and likely has a role in the offense even if top receiver Dontario Drummond ($6,500) is able to play. 

Pearson had a productive career at Western Kentucky before transferring to Ole Miss, and may have been limited early in the year as he learned the offense. Based on last week’s production, it’s reasonable to assume he’s earned the trust of the coaching staff and likely remains a significant part of the offense. 

If Drummond is cleared to play, Pearson is probably the only other safe option among Ole Miss’ receivers. If both Drummond and Braylon Sanders ($4,200) suit up, then maybe it’s best to avoid Pearson. 

In the event neither Drummond nor Sanders can play, tight end Casey Kelley ($4,300), and receivers John Rhys Plumlee ($3,200) and Dannis Jackson ($3,200) will see increased usage, though no one in that group has enough sustained production to be trusted with a high exposure rate. 

WR Antoine Green, North Carolina vs. Wake Forest

Salary: $4,300

In two games since Emery Simmons’s transfer, Antoine Green is second on the team with seven targets. However, that’s only a 13% target share, so it’s unclear if he’s reliably locked into that WR2 role. 

Green sees an aDOT of 19.5 yards, so he’s obviously a boom-or-bust fantasy option unless his usage increases significantly. In a potential shootout, however, he’s definitely worth rostering in tournaments. 

WR Grant Calcaterra, SMU at Memphis

Salary: $4,000

As previously mentioned (see Danny Gray and Rashee Rice), there should be plenty of opportunities for multiple SMU receivers to light up the scoreboard against Memphis. 

Tight end Grant Calcaterra has finished as SMU’s WR2 twice and WR3 twice, so he’s worth considering on this low salary. Calcaterra also leads SMU with six end zone targets, so in a high-scoring game we should feel good about his touchdown odds. 

WR Taylor Morin, Wake Forest at North Carolina

Salary: $3,800

After three consecutive games with two or fewer receptions, Taylor Morin’s salary has dropped below $4,000 for the first time since Week 3. 

In that three game stretch, however, Morin is third on the team with 57 routes run, far ahead of Wake’s fourth option Donald Stewart (26 routes), according to Sports Info Solution. So it appears as though his role has remained unchanged.

Morin has led Wake receivers in fantasy scoring twice this season (versus Virginia and Louisville), so it’s worth gambling on his ceiling in a few lineups. 

WR Noah Frith, Liberty at Ole Miss

Salary: $3,800

This is a punt option only, but Noah Frith has seen increased usage in recent weeks. In his last two games, Frith is third on the team in targets and routes.

He’s only reached double-digit fantasy points once, but this fast-paced game should provide extra scoring opportunities for everyone. 

WR Justin Olson, North Carolina vs. Wake Forest

Salary: $3,000

Following Emery Simmons’s transfer announcement, Justin Olson moved into a starting role. He had just four targets in his first two games, but three were at least 10 yards downfield. 

Simmons was used as a deep threat (20.0 aDOT), so there are some valuable deep ball opportunities up for grabs in this offense. 

CFB DFS PLAYERS TO AVOID

QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss vs. Liberty

Salary: $9,600

Due to injury issues 一 he left last week’s game with an ankle injury and missed at least one day of practice this week 一 I’ll have low exposure to Matt Corral this week. But he’s worth considering every week as the nation’s third-highest scoring quarterback. 

Liberty has yet to play a quarterback with a pulse, so we have no idea what this defense is capable of against Corral. Only two quarterbacks have topped 20 points against the Flames, and both of those were boosted by production on the ground, which an injured Corral may be lacking. 

Using Corral in some game stacks makes sense, but I’ll stay away otherwise, especially with so many other great options. 

WR Emery Simmons, North Carolina vs. Wake Forest

Salary: $4,600

North Carolina’s former WR2 is in the transfer portal, but his status hasn’t been updated on DraftKings. He’s still listed as active and their second-highest salaried receiver. 

WR Ke'Shawn Williams, Wake Forest at North Carolina

Salary: $4,200

Over the last two weeks, Ke'Shawn Williams has 15.7 and 17.4 fantasy points 一 don’t fall for it. According to Sports Info Solutions, Williams ran just 18 routes in those two games combined. 

Despite the production, Williams appears to be the fourth option, at best, and likely won’t see as many opportunities in a more competitive game against North Carolina.