Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Analysis: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

In Thursday night’s Showdown, the Baltimore Ravens visit the Miami Dolphins. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

As large favorites, I expect the Ravens to be heavily rostered by the field in 4–2 and 5–1 builds. Showdown slates with the Ravens tend to have Lamar Jackson as the favored CPT by far and Rostered over 90% total. In a showdown slate earlier this season, he failed to make the optimal lineup, rewarding those bold enough to fade him. There was a second slate where he was in the optimal at flex but not CPT. Tua Tagovailoa is questionable again after missing last week, with Jacoby Brissett currently projected to start in the Daily Roto optimizer.

Strategy

When Jackson hasn’t paid off his price tag, one of the Ravens RBs have had strong games, so setting up some negative correlations or groups that take this into account makes sense. In lineups where you want to eat chalk and play Jackson at CPT, you can differentiate by including three of his pass-catchers.

projected roster constructions seem more spread out than what I have usually seen, so there is less leverage on underdog-heavy builds, even the 5–1 dolphins onslaught is projected near 5% when we often see a number closer to 1%. 4–2 Dolphins is approaching 30%. A lot of the values are on the dolphins, so the 5–1 ravens on slot is surprisingly projected under 10%, perhaps offering some real leverage on a favorite heavy build, if you can find a way to squeeze them in.

Jackson is projected between 25–35% CPT and 81–91% total while his simulations suggest he could be the top player over 60% of the time. It gets unpredictable after that but playing anyone else over 10% CPT or 55% total will give you at least some leverage.