In this college football DFS preview, I’ll break down the DraftKings Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options that come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
Key Play-Calling Data
Sec per Play Overall Pass Rate 2nd Half Pass Rate w/ Lead 2nd Half Pass Rate Trailing Mississippi State 27.4 75.1% 72.6% 78.5% Auburn 25.0 53.6% 29.2% 60.0% West Virginia 28.3 55.1% 41.9% 64.6% Kansas State 31.0 45.4% 35.9% 52.0% Oklahoma 27.2 54.5% 43.5% 59.0% Baylor 28.1 41.8% 31.1% 46.2% UCF 25.5 49.4% 32.9% 46.3% SMU 24.3 55.5% 42.8% 66.7% Rutgers 26.1 48.0% 30.1% 50.0% Indiana 26.3 51.8% 43.7% 55.1% Michigan 27.8 39.5% 31.9% 54.8% Penn State 23.7 58.5% 50.2% 71.9% Northwestern 24.3 50.7% 26.3% 60.0% Wisconsin 29.8 34.9% 22.4% 56.7% Georgia 29.2 41.1% 33.1% 37.5% Tennessee 20.5 46.5% 28.4% 57.0% Miami FL 22.4 57.6% 40.5% 61.2% Florida State 25.7 52.3% 40.0% 58.0% Iowa State 28.8 53.4% 43.0% 58.3% Texas Tech 26.5 52.3% 46.8% 59.6% Minnesota 32.0 33.7% 22.6% 44.2% Iowa 28.1 48.1% 39.6% 57.8% Purdue 25.9 61.2% 52.0% 72.8% Ohio State 24.9 53.7% 45.3% 67.8% Maryland 24.5 56.8% 40.3% 62.7% Michigan State 24.6 47.0% 41.5% 62.3%
Color Code: Blue: Top 20th Percentile | Green: 60-79th | Yellow: 40-59th | Orange: 20-39th | Red: 0-19th
Players to Build Around
QB Caleb Williams, Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Salary: $10,000
In two of his three starts, Caleb Williams has reached 40 fantasy points, so I guess we have to consider him, even on his high salary.
Baylor’s defense is a big step up in competition from anything Williams has faced in his three starts (TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech). However, the Bears do rank 100th in explosive pass rate allowed (percentage of attempts for 20 or more yards).
Oklahoma’s performance against Kansas a few weeks ago demonstrated a frustratingly low floor, so keep exposure to Williams reasonably low.
QB Tyler Van Dyke, Miami FL at Florida State
Salary: $8,000
Tyler Van Dyke’s ascent from third-string to fantasy-relevant quarterback is baffling, but he needs to be taken seriously after three straight games of 29 or more fantasy points.
Florida State ranks 89th in pressure rate, according to Sports Info Solutions. Van Dyke is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt when kept clean.
The Seminoles have also allowed at least 23 fantasy points to quarterbacks in all but one game against Power 5 opponents.
RB Breece Hall, Iowa State at Texas Tech
Salary: $9,500
The Texas Tech defense has been gashed by the top running backs it has faced:
- TCU’s Kendre Miller (39.5 fantasy points) and Zach Evans (29.3 points)
- Kansas State’s Deuce Vaughn (37 points)
- Texas’s Bijan Robinson (30.1 points)
My only hesitation with rostering Breece Hall is Iowa State’s looming matchup at Oklahoma next week. Hall has at least 20 touches in every game, but if Iowa State builds an early lead, it would make sense to lighten his load more than usual.
RB Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State vs. Maryland
Salary: $8,900
The Maryland defense is allowing 34.2 fantasy points per game to running backs, ranked 115th in the country, making this an obvious spot to roster Kenneth Walker III.
Walker’s salary is its highest of the year and up $2,200 since the Michigan game two weeks ago. So he’s slightly less appealing in tournaments than previous weeks, but his consistent usage (at least 23 touches in all but one Big Ten game) also gives him a solid floor.
RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
Salary: $8,200
In recent weeks, Braelon Allen has shared the workload with Chez Mellusi, but Mellusi is now out after suffering a season-ending injury last week. Former starter Jalen Burger is also in the transfer portal and backup Isaac Guerendo has also suffered a season-ending injury.
Other than fullback John Chenal (25 carries this season), Wisconsin doesn’t have anything resembling an experienced running back behind Allen.
Allen has topped 20 touches only once this year (versus Iowa), but could see a substantial workload in this game as the Badgers’ lone healthy, experienced running back.
RB Jaylan Knighton, Miami FL at Florida State
Salary: $7,900
Since Week 5, Jaylan Knighton has accounted for 75% of handoffs to running backs and has run routes on 42% of Miami’s pass plays.
Florida State ranks 34th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs (21.5), but hasn’t faced many run-heavy opponents.
Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams posted 24.5 points and N.C. State’s Trent Pennix and Ricky Person Jr. combined for 34.5, so we should still feel confident in Knighton given his consistent usage (23 touches per game).
RB Abram Smith, Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Salary: $7,100
Five running backs have reached at least 20 fantasy points against Oklahoma, including four of the last five games.
Baylor’s strategy will likely be to attempt to control the clock with the run game, leading to heavy usage for Abram Smith. He’s averaging 23.7 touches per game over Baylor’s last three contests.
Smith has also seen increased usage in the passing game in recent weeks with eight targets in the last three games, fourth-most on the team.
WR Charleston Rambo, Miami FL at Florida State
Salary: $8,000
Pairing Charleston Rambo with Van Dyke looks like one of the better stack options on this slate. Over the last three weeks, Rambo has had a team-high 31 targets, with at least nine in each game.
During that span, Rambo has also seen an average depth of target (aDOT) of 12.2 yards downfield, so he’s getting both volume and downfield opportunities, which creates a huge ceiling for him against a shaky Florida State defense.
WR Danny Gray, SMU vs. UCF
Salary: $7,100
In every game this year, Danny Gray has at least five targets and has topped 20 fantasy points six times.
Only one receiver has topped 20 fantasy points against UCF this year, but SMU is easily the most dangerous passing attack the Knights have faced.
WR Tyquan Thornton, Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Salary: $6,800
Baylor almost certainly wants a run-heavy offense in this matchup to keep Oklahoma off the field. But if they fall behind, Tyquan Thornton could see a heavy workload and should have success stretching the field against the Sooners.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Oklahoma allows a 55.2% completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 122nd. Thornton leads Baylor with 38 targets (4.2 per game) at that distance.
WR David Bell, Purdue at Ohio State
Salary: $6,700
After dropping 40 fantasy points for the third time this season, David Bell’s salary drops $700 一 good luck figuring out that logic.
Ohio State’s defense is improving, but it has still allowed 18.2 fantasy points per game to WR1s, ranked 67th.
The highest-scoring fantasy player against the Buckeyes has been a receiver in seven straight games, reaching at least 20 points in four of those games.
WR Chris Olave, Ohio State vs. Purdue
Salary: $6,600
Knowing his ceiling (three games over 30 points), this salary is an incredible value for Chris Olave.
Garrett Wilson ($6,900) will likely return, so it’s a crowded receiving corps again, but Olave’s usage 一 a 22.5% target share and 15.1 aDOT 一 gives him an elite ceiling in any matchup.
CFB DFS VALUE PLAYS
QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee vs. Georgia
Salary: $6,500
This might be the first time all season I’ve recommended a Georgia opponent. Hendon Hooker has reached at least 24 fantasy points in all but one SEC game (19.1 points versus Florida) and his rushing success gives him a safe floor, even against the Bulldogs.
Considering the opponent, Hooker’s rostership should be low, which also increases his potential value.
Only two quarterbacks have reached double-digit fantasy points against Georgia (Kentucky’s Will Levis, Florida’s Emory Jones), so don’t go overboard with exposure to Hooker, but he’s worth throwing into some lineups.
QB Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland at Michigan State
Salary: $5,900
Michigan State and Maryland both play at a nice pace (each under 25 seconds per play), so this game has shootout potential, despite the Spartans being 12.5-point favorites.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Michigan State ranks 90th in pressure rate (29.5%). Taulia Tagovailoa ranks 122nd in adjusted net yards per attempt versus pressure, but ranks 63rd when kept clean, so this should be a good matchup for him.
Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 12.6 fantasy points per game against the Spartans, ranked 85th.
RB Julius Davis, Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
Salary: $3,000
Due to injuries and transfers, Julius Davis might be the backup to Braelon Allen in this game. Following the injury to Chez Mellusi last week, Davis received seven touches.
In Wisconsin’s last four games, at least two running backs have had double-digit carries in each contest. The Badgers are favored by 24.5, so there should be some touches available for Davis again.
Wisconsin also gave carries to Grover Bortolotti, Jackson Acker, and Brady Schipper if you’re looking for other dart throws, but Davis was the first running back in after Mellusi’s injury, so he looks like the best bet.
WR Bo Melton, Rutgers at Indiana
Salary: $5,000
Bo Melton’s fantasy production has been all over the place, but with two games over 27 points, we know there’s a high ceiling in the right matchup.
Indiana has a respectable pass defense, but does allow an explosive pass rate of 10.5%, ranked 77th.
WR Ty Fryfogle, Indiana vs. Rutgers
Salary: $4,600
After posting 0.1 fantasy points last time out, Ty Fryfogle clearly has a low floor, but the Rutgers defense will be considerably more friendly than Michigan.
Fryfogle leads Indiana with a 28.3% target share and a 13.4 aDOT. Rutgers ranks 128th in explosive play rate allowed (15.1%), and with one or two big plays Fryfogle can easily out-play his reasonable salary.
WR Marcus Fleming, Maryland at Michigan State
Salary: $4,500
Since Dontay Demus Jr. went down with an injury against Iowa, four different Maryland receivers have led the position group in fantasy scoring. It's a tough group to figure out, but Marcus Fleming is second on the team (behind tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo) in target share during that span and sees a 10.3 aDOT.
He’s more of a big-play threat than Rakim Jarrett ($4,500), who’s only seen an aDOT of 5.6 since the Demus injury.
WR1s have averaged 22.2 fantasy points per game against Michigan State, ranked 112th, so there’s a nice ceiling for whoever emerges as the top target for the Terps in this matchup.
TE Eric All, Michigan at Penn State
Salary: 3,900
Over his last two games, Eric All has 12 receptions on 18 targets, and a respectable 7.3 aDOT for a tight end.
Penn State has struggled to defend tight ends and opponents have attacked them relentlessly. Three tight ends (Maryland’s Chigoziem Okonkwo, Wisconsin’s Jake Ferguson, Indiana’s Peyton Hendershot) have seen double-digit targets against the Nittany Lions, and another four had at least five targets.
WR Monrie Foster, Michigan State vs. Maryland
Salary: $3,700
This option depends on the health of Jalen Nailor ($6,300) who missed last week’s game with a hand injury. In his absence, Monrie Foster stepped into a starting role and saw four targets at aDOT of 10.0.
The increased usage only resulted in 6.3 fantasy points, but the Maryland defense should provide much less resistance than Purdue.
Michigan State has an implied total of 36.5, so Foster’s ceiling far outweighs his salary if he’s starting in Nailor’s place again.
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO AVOID
QB Tanner Mordecai, SMU vs. UCF
Salary: $8,700
Monitor UCF’s injury situation before rostering Tanner Mordecai. UCF has been without starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel since Week 3, wide receiver Jaylon Robinson’s status is in doubt and starting running back Isaiah Bowser left last week’s game with an injury.
If UCF is without all its best playmakers, this game might not be competitive enough for Mordecai’s ceiling to match his salary.
