Patriots vs Falcons Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons Thursday Night Football game.

This article, normally being a paywall, is 100% this week as part of Sharp Football Free Week.

New England	Rank	@	Atlanta	Rank
-6.5		Spread	6.5
26.5		Implied Total	20
27.5	6	Points/Gm	19.8	25
17.7	2	Points All./Gm	29.2	31
63.2	17	Plays/Gm	62.3	20
62.8	14	Opp. Plays/Gm	65.3	25
5.6	16	Off. Yards/Play	5.2	25
5.2	4	Def. Yards/Play	5.6	22
44.30%	9	Rush%	38.15%	23
55.70%	24	Pass%	61.85%	10
40.92%	15	Opp. Rush %	44.73%	27
59.08%	18	Opp. Pass %	55.27%	6

The Patriots have scored 60.8% of the points in their games played, trailing only the Bills (67.5%).
The Patriots are allowing 4.8 yards per pass attempt over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
New England is third in the NFL in success rate allowed per dropback (44.2%) while Atlanta is 31st (53.1%).
In Week 10, Mac Jones had the highest completion rate over expectation (+18.8%) while Matt Ryan had the lowest (-23.5%).
The Falcons are 31st in success rate per rushing play (29.3%).
Atlanta is averaging a league-low 282.3 yards per game on offense at home this season.

Quarterback

Mac Jones: Jones is coming off his most efficient game of his early career, completing 82.6% of his passes (19-of-23) for 198 yards to go along with his first three-touchdown game through the air. It was his highest fantasy finish (QB4) despite only being his second-highest scoring game (19.9 points) due to another light week in overall league scoring.

Jones has just two weeks on the season closing in the front half of quarterback scoring and may not be tasked with doing a lot of lifting here if Atlanta cannot counterpunch, but this is objectively the best matchup he has had on paper all season. Atlanta is getting next to no heat on opposing passers, ranking 31st in pressure rate (16.7%) and dead last in sack rate (3.4%) on opponent dropbacks. As a byproduct, they are getting crushed on the back end, ranking 28th in completion rate (69.0%) and 27th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.52) to go along with a 6.1% touchdown rate surrendered (29th).

Jones can be a streamer in 1QB streamer if your roster and waivers are thinned out but is a matchup-based QB2 in 2QB formats.

Matt Ryan: Absolutely nothing went right for Ryan and the Falcons last week as he completed just 42.9% (9-of-21) of his passes, his lowest rate in a game since Week 13 of the 2011 season and third-lowest total of his career. Ryan posted 1.3 adjusted yards per pass attempt and a 21.4 quarterback rating, the lowest marks in a game for his career. Ryan had next to no shot to do anything as he was pressured on 47.8% of his dropbacks.

Ryan has now given us two unusable games over the past three weeks. We were in this same position two weeks ago when Ryan was coming off a QB31 scoring week against Carolina, and he bounced back with 28.5 points at New Orleans. That said, it is tough to chase that performance against a hot New England defense that is third in completion rate (59.4%), seventh in yards allowed per attempt (6.8 Y/A), and third in passing points allowed per game (11.9). Especially now with Cordarrelle Patterson expected to be sidelined, who has accounted for 20.7% of the Atlanta receiving yardage and 33.3% of their touchdown grabs.

With an empty cupboard of weapons outside of Kyle Pitts, a weak offensive line, and a tough matchup, Ryan is only an option for needy 2QB rosters.

Running Back

Patriots RBs: With Damien Harris out due to a concussion, Rhamondre Stevenson took full advantage, playing a season-high 55% of the snaps while handling 66.7% of the backfield touches, the highest rate for a New England back in a game this season. Stevenson did not waste the touches, either, racking up 114 yards and a pair of scores against a Cleveland run defense that had been a top unit coming into the game.

Stevenson now has posted over 100 yards in each of his past two games. He has rushed for 5.4 yards per carry in those games while tacking on six catches for 58 yards. Stevenson now has been targeted on 35.1% of his routes, which is second among all backs on the season, but he has yet to run double-digit routes in a game yet this season.

We will have to wait to see if Harris will return to the lineup on a short week to see how things shake out moving forward in this backfield. Early signal in Week 9 was that Stevenson was already working into a larger role, but if Stevenson is not going to catch a high number of passes due to Brandon Bolden still being the long down and distance back while also conceding or sharing goal-line work with Harris, then we have a messy situation that can be tough to predict weekly.

Atlanta has been good against the run, allowing 3.9 YPC to backs (eighth), but they have allowed nine rushing touchdowns to backs (27th) while they are 27th in receiving points allowed per game (13.5) to backfields.

If Harris returns, Harris is a touchdown-dependent FLEX with Stevenson and Bolden as boom-or-bust FLEX options. If Harris remains out, then Stevenson is a locked-in RB2 option with RB1 upside once again.

Falcons RBs: The Falcons are expected to be without Swiss Army Knife Cordarrelle Patterson on the short week, leaving them with Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman to carry things.

Patterson is a significant loss as he has accounted for 25.6% of the Atlanta yards from scrimmage (sixth among backs) and 36.8% of the team touchdowns (which leads all backs). The Falcons also have not shown that they can line up and run the ball successfully in the traditional fashion all season long, so Patterson’s versatility was vital.

Gallman played a season-high 43% of the snaps and out-touched Davis 16-4 last week, but he had just two touches (three for Davis) until the game was 36-3 on the scoreboard and Atlanta was trying to simulate to end.

We likely do see some form of a split rushing the ball, but Davis offers more receiving ability to chase as a floor-based FLEX in PPR formats only. New England is only allowing 10.7 rushing points per game (sixth) but are allowing 13.9 receiving points per game (29th) to opposing backs.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers finally broke the seal and found the end zone last week for the first time as a receiver in his career. While that was a champagne popping moment, Meyers still only managed to secure four passes for 49 yards. Meyers has not reached 50 yards in a game since Week 5 and has hit 70 yards just twice on the season. We really need him to start cashing in touchdowns weekly to help out his floor, even full-PPR formats.

The matchup is right as Atlanta is 31st in points allowed per target (2.01) to wideouts on the strength of allowing a league-high 7.7% touchdown rate to the position if you believe the scoring dam has been broken for Meyers as more than a WR4/FLEX option.

Kendrick Bourne: Bourne is actually the WR19 in PPR scoring from Week 3 on, catching 30-of-37 targets for 493 yards and three scores over his past eight games. Bourne has made the most of his opportunities since he is running a route on just 65.6% of the team dropbacks and is the WR53 in expected points over that span.

Bourne has not caught more than four passes in a game since Week 4, but the matchup is strong for a swing in single-game DFS.

Falcons WRs: The Falcons are scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point in the season with both Calvin Ridley and Patterson absent from the lineup.

Russell Gage has still paced the team in routes run per dropback the past three weeks but has been goose-egged in two of those contents surrounding a 7-64-0 game with seven targets. Tajae Sharpe has matched Gage or been second in routes run in each of the past three weeks with Ridley out, with games of 5-58-0 (six targets), 1-12-0 (one target), and 1-0-0 (one target).

Olamide Zaccheus has run a route on 54.3% and 51.7% of the dropbacks the past two weeks, catching two touchdowns in Week 9 and then leading the wideouts with seven targets last week, although he reeled in just two of them for 22 yards.

The Patriots are allowing just 7.5 yards per target to opposing receivers (seventh) and a 57.1% completion rate on those targets (third) to provide no matchup leverage for a unit that is best left for single-game DFS.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts: Pitts is the last weapon standing in the Atlanta offense entering Thursday. Typically, being the only weapon in an offense opposing the Patriots is never a good thing.

Pitts leads all tight ends with 26.5% of his team’s yardage through the air, but he has managed just 22.5 PPR points over his past three games. Pitts is coming off a season-high 25.9% target share and has received over 20% of the team targets in six straight games. He also has hit 60 yards in four of his past five games but is still stuck on just one touchdown on the season.

That kind of usage is too high to ignore or shelve at his position, but Pitts will surely draw all the attention on Thursday night, forcing the Falcons to get creative with his deployment. The Falcons have moved Pitts inside and inline more the past two weeks, lining up on the outside for just 10 and six of his snaps the past two games, his lowest totals of the season. Pitts is a volume-based TE1.

Hunter Henry: Henry is running on the opposite end of things compared to Pitts. Henry has topped 42 yards in just one game this season and has not had more than four targets in a game since Week 5. He has 11 catches for 137 yards over his past five games, but he has found the end zone in six of his past seven games with seven total scores over that span.

38.8% of Henry’s fantasy points are solely from touchdown grabs, the highest rate among the top-20 scorers at the position. He does now lead all tight ends with eight end zone targets, so he is a factor in that area of the field. With Jonnu Smith out last week, Henry did not have a major spike in usage, running a route on 71.4% of his dropbacks as opposed to 66.9% prior. Henry is still a touchdown-dependent TE2 option in fantasy, but the Falcons are no defense to be scared of, allowing a 71.7% catch rate (20th), 7.4 yards per target (16th), and a 6.7% touchdown rate (23rd) to tight ends.