Football Team vs Panthers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers Sunday afternoon game.

Washington	Rank	@	Carolina	Rank
3		Spread	-3
20.3		Implied Total	23.3
20.6	20	Points/Gm	20.5	21
27.3	28	Points All./Gm	19.3	6
63.7	15	Plays/Gm	67.3	4
63.8	19	Opp. Plays/Gm	58.2	1
5.4	20	Off. Yards/Play	4.8	30
5.9	27	Def. Yards/Play	4.8	2
42.06%	15	Rush%	43.69%	11
57.94%	18	Pass%	56.31%	22
37.98%	7	Opp. Rush %	43.47%	25
62.02%	26	Opp. Pass %	56.53%	8

The Panthers are allowing 23.1 yards per drive (first) while Washington is allowing 36.4 yards per drive (31st).
The Panthers are second in the league in expected points added per pass attempt defensively (0.09) while Washington is 30th (-0.34).
Carolina leads the league in success rate allowed per dropback defensively (41.0%).
Just 10.5% of the plays against Carolina have come from inside of the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.
Carolina is 30th in the league in fantasy points per game on offense (65.9) while second in points allowed per game defensively (61.9).
The Panthers are allowing 301.3 yards from scrimmage for fantasy per game, second to only Buffalo (285.1 yards).

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Cam Newton: Although he is not quite yet officially the starter after joining the team late last week, the Panthers did not give Newton backup money and Matt Rhule has stated the team is trying to get him up to speed as quickly as possible this week to take over as early as this week.

Newton is coming off a 2020 season in which he threw just eight touchdown passes and did not throw more than one touchdown in a game until Week 17, but Newton still turned in eight QB1 scoring weeks since he is still a threat with his legs, especially near the end zone as we saw last weekend in his debut. Newton was even the QB17 last week on just nine offensive snaps. Also, keep in mind that Sam Darnold had five rushing touchdowns prior to injury with two on designed runs.

If Newton does make the start, he gets a positive matchup against a Washington defense that is allowing a league-high 20.1 passing points per game and will be without both Montez Sweat and Chase Young due to injury. If Newton is the starter, he slides into fringe QB1 territory and is a viable streamer.

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke is coming off a game-management version we were not sure existed. Heinicke completed a season-high 81.2% of his passes with 8.0 Y/A with the most impressive part being completing 11-of-13 passes for 9.2 Y/A with seven first down pickups on third down Sunday against the Bucs.

While it was arguably his best on-field performance this year, Heinicke has not thrown more than one touchdown pass in five straight games for fantasy and draws a Carolina defense here on the road that is sixth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.38) and second in passing points allowed per game (11.5). An out for Heinicke is that the Panthers have allowed 3.3 rushing points per game, but he is only a 2QB option here.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey looked like his old self last week, rushing 13 times for 95 yards and catching all 10 of his targets for 66 yards. The only downside is he was tackled twice at the 1-yard line that set up two touchdowns for other players.

While McCaffrey has only played 49% and 59% of the overall snaps since returning to the lineup the past two games, he has taken the fourth quarter off both weeks due to blowouts in each direction, posting just one touch in the last frame. During the first three quarters of those games, McCaffrey has accounted for 40-of-58 backfield touches. In PPR formats, McCaffrey has now gone over 20 fantasy points in three of his four full games this season with a low of 14.6 points.

Washington has been strong against the run, allowing 3.6 YPC to backs (third) and are allowing 10.3 rushing points per game (fifth), but they are 26th in receiving points allowed per game (13.1) to opposing backs. McCaffrey has now been targeted on 34.8% of his routes, which is the highest rate for any back with over 50 routes run on the season. McCaffrey is back to being the top fantasy option at the position in PPR formats and a top option regardless of format.

Antonio Gibson: Gibson was forced to work hard against the Tampa Bay defense as expected (2.7 YPC), but game script kept his touch count high while he added a pair of 1-yard touchdown plunges to deliver his first RB1 scoring week of the season.

While everything went right for Washington and Gibson to get there, the fact that we did not see him concede carries to Jaret Patterson was a major plus since entering the bye we saw Gibson have a season-low 33.3% of the team rushing attempts and then handled 70.6% last week, his highest share since Week 1.

We still have to play the game script game with Gibson as he only ran a pass route on 35.0% of the team dropbacks, but that was something we have always dealt with. It is also something we have to account for here as a road underdog.

Carolina can be run on, allowing 4.3 YPC to backs (20th) and 12.1 rushing points per game (14th) if Washington can keep things neutral, leaving Gibson as a script and touchdown-dependent RB2.

J.D. McKissic: With the way the game played out on Sunday, it is no surprise that McKissic managed just six touches, which he turned into 39 yards. That is the mercy we are always at with the receiving back archetypes. As a roads underdog, McKissic could be set up for another spot where he is elevated in-game, but this is why he can only be handled as a FLEX option in PPR formats on a weekly basis. Carolina is also a tougher draw on paper, allowing a league-low 6.6 receiving points per game to backs.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin battled through a collarbone scare that sent him to the locker room last week to catch 6-of-8 targets (25.0%), for 59 yards. While McLaurin did not fully hit, it was the first time that he posted a usable floor in a game where he failed to go bonkers. McLaurin now has three top-five scoring weeks and five weeks as the WR44 or lower to go along with this WR32 scoring week.

Carolina has been tough on opposing WR1 options, ranking fourth in points allowed per game (12.1) to those lead wideouts. McLaurin is averaging 1.68 yards per route run against man versus 2.11 yards per route against zone, but three of his four scores this year have come versus man, which Carolina is going to throw his way. McLaurin still has top-shelf usage, ranking sixth in target rate (27.5%) and third in share of air yards (43.7%) to keep as a boom-or-bust WR2 option in a tough matchup.

D.J. Moore: Moore secured 4-of-7 targets for just 24 yards last week as the Carolina game plan was reduced to game protection under P.J. Walker after jumping out to an early lead. Moore had a season-low 4.0-yard depth of target.

I am in the camp that Cam Newton can only help Moore since it will be hard for him to be worse than Sam Darnold was playing, but there is the risk of conservative game plans in games where Carolina controls things. It is unlikely that the Panthers swerve pass-heavy in Newton’s first start if he gets the nod, but Washington is 26th in points allowed per game (16.7) to opposing WR1 options while ranking 26th in yards allowed per target (8.9 yards), and 27th in touchdown rate (6.1%) allowed to opposing wideouts altogether. Moore has a wide range of outcomes, but I am taking the positive stance with him here as a WR2 if Newton does take over.

Robby Anderson: Anderson only posted 37 yards last week, but he found the end zone for the first time since Week 1 while his four receptions were the second-most he has had in a game this season. Newton can also help Anderson if this all comes together. Newton was actually solid pushing the ball downfield when he did throw deep in 2020 with New England. Newton completed 52.7% (29-of-55) of his passes on throws over 15 yards downfield, which was fifth among all quarterbacks with 50 or more such attempts on the season. Anderson is still not a reliable starter in seasonal formats, but there is at least now a sliver of hope for him moving forward as a boom-or-bust FLEX play in positive matchups such as this one.

DeAndre Carter: Carter has now scored in each of his past two games, the first two touchdowns of his career as he is finding a role in this offense due to all of the injuries Washington has had outside of McLaurin.

Carter has seen 16.7% and 18.8% of the team targets (six each game) the past two weeks while running a route on 66.7% and 65.0% of the dropbacks. That is still WR5 for fantasy usage when you don’t run into a touchdown.

Tight End

Washington TEs: Washington comes into this week with a question mark at tight end with Logan Thomas’s status still up in the air and Ricky Seals-Jones leaving last week with a hip injury. If neither can suit up, it would be rookie John Bates as the next man up. Bates caught three passes for 25 yards in relief of Seals-Jones on Sunday.

We haven’t seen Thomas since Week 4 as he suffered a hamstring injury, but prior to injury, Thomas was a full-time player, running a pass route on 100-of-107 team dropbacks the first three weeks of the season. Thomas kicked off the year with games of 3-30-1, 5-45-0, and 4-42-1 with no more than 16.7% of the team targets in each game, making him an option similar to Tyler Higbee for fantasy.

Carolina is allowing 5.7 yards per target (fifth) and a 58.7% completion rate (fourth) to opposing tight ends to provide no matchup appeal to go along with the unknown availability for who will draw the start.