49ers vs Jaguars Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon game.

San Francisco	Rank	@	Jacksonville	Rank
-5.5		Spread	5.5
26		Implied Total	20.5
24	16	Points/Gm	16.6	31
23.6	17	Points All./Gm	25.8	27
60.7	27	Plays/Gm	62.2	22
62.3	12	Opp. Plays/Gm	63.2	17
6	7	Off. Yards/Play	5.3	22
5.3	10	Def. Yards/Play	5.8	25
45.60%	7	Rush%	37.68%	26
54.40%	26	Pass%	62.32%	7
44.74%	28	Opp. Rush %	43.06%	24
55.26%	5	Opp. Pass %	56.94%	9

The Jaguars are 31st in the league in points per possession (1.43).
Jacksonville is converting a league-worst 30.3% of their third down plays.
San Francisco converted 8-of-14 (57.1%) third downs in Week 10 after converting 33.3% (30th) prior.
The 49ers ran the ball on 24-of-26 (92.3%) first down plays in Week 10, the highest rate for a team on first down in a game this season.
Trevor Lawrence is 36-of-85 (42.2%) with 5.0 yards per pass attempt on third down. That 42.2% completion rate is the lowest among all passers with 40-plus pass attempts on third down.
Lawrence has completed 44.4% of his passes against the blitz this season, ahead of only Zach Wilson (42.6%).
Since the Week 7 bye, Lawrence is second to last among all quarterbacks in completion rate below expectation (-9.3%).

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo: Don’t look now, but Garoppolo has strung together three consecutive top-12 scoring weeks, completing 68.9% of his passes for 9.5 yards per pass attempt and four touchdown passes over this stretch, his best of the season. With a win on Monday night and the schedule opening up, there likely needs to be a collapse from Garoppolo and this offense if we are going to see Trey Lance after Garoppolo had his back against the wall in terms of public perception After Week 7.

The Jaguars have been lively the past two games, especially up front. They stone-walled both Josh Allen (5.6 Y/A) and Carson Wentz (5.3 Y/A) who had been productive fantasy scorers entering those matchups. In those games, the Jaguars pressured Allen and Wentz on 41.1% of their dropbacks, allowing those passers to complete 12-of-29 passes for 150 yards (5.2 Y/A) on those dropbacks. Garoppolo has been sensitive to pressure, completing just 49.0% of his passes for 6.6 Y/A under pressure this season as opposed to a 71.3% completion rate and 8.8 Y/A when kept clean.

The Jaguars also allowed top-10 scoring weeks to both Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa before these back-to-back games, so we are still working on a small sample before fully avoiding the Jacksonville defense. There are other quarterbacks I would stream in 1QB formats over Garoppolo, but he is a front-end QB2 option in 2QB formats while hot.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has come out of the bye passing for 4.4, 4.5, and 4.6 yards per pass attempt the past three weeks. He has not thrown more than one touchdown pass in a game since Week 1 and has finished higher than QB15 just once on the year.

The 49ers are ninth in passing points allowed per game (14.2) to provide no matchup appeal here for Lawrence as more than a must-play option for 2QB formats.

Running Back

James Robinson: Playing through a heel injury, Robinson returned to the field to play 59% of the snaps, his lowest share in a game since Week 3. The snap reduction was only for preservation as Robinson still handled 84.2% (16-of-19) of the backfield touches, totaling 84 yards and a touchdown. Robinson has now found the end zone rushing in each of his past five full games played while finishing as a top-12 scorer in all five of those games.

The 49ers are allowing 3.9 yards per carry to backs (ninth), but they have allowed 13.9 rushing points per game (20th) to the position on the strength of some huge games allowed to Jonathan Taylor and James Conner. They have been vulnerable through the air, allowing 5.2 receptions per game (18th) to backfields, while Robinson offers that dual-purpose ability, leaving him in the RB1 conversation.

49ers RBs: With Elijah Mitchell doubtful Sunday with a broken finger, San Francisco will likely turn early down duties over to Jeff Wilson and continue to use Kyle Juszczyk as the long down and distance back JaMycal Hasty also sidelined. The 49ers have shown no faith in playing Trey Sermon outside of necessity, so it is hard to bank on him touching the ball. Wilson rushed 10 times for 28 yards on Monday in his first action of the season.

The Jaguars have been strong up front, allowing 3.8 YPC to backs (fifth), but they have allowed nine touchdowns on the ground (26th) to opposing backs. Wilson is rushing dependent RB2 that gets a boost in non-PPR formats.

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has seen his target share come down a touch with a healthy Geroge Kittle back in the lineup, but that has not slowed him down. We also should not have expected Samuel to hold a 33.5% target share over the full season. Even with Kittle returning and the team finally committing to Brando Aiyuk, Samuel has held target shares of 23.1% and 26.3% the past two weeks.

Samuel caught all five of his targets for 97 yards and a touchdown on Monday night while Kyle Shanahan dusted him off in the run game. After rushing six times for 22 yards through eight weeks, Samuel carried the ball five times for 36 yards and a score on Monday. Samuel is having the best year of his career by a longshot and has been the most consistent fantast WR1 outside of Cooper Kupp.

The Jaguars have started to use Shaquill Griffin to shadow lead wideouts of late and have found some success in the context of limiting Stefon Diggs (6-85-0) and Michael Pittman (5-71-0), but far from shutting those options down in total. On the season, the Jaguars are still allowing 16.3 points per game to opposing WR1 options, which is 24th in the league. This is another example where we are noting the recent run the Jaguars have had to see if a trend continues to develop, but they still have a seven-game sample of getting smoked prior that we aren’t just ready to sweep under the rug.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk only caught 3-of-4 passes for 26 yards on Monday night, but with the 49ers only throwing 19 passes, his 21.1% target share was not as poor as the results. It was the third straight game in which Aiyuk received at least 20% of the team targets while running a route on 95% of the team dropbacks. Aiyuk still has to contend with a scoring hot Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, but he’s finally a full-time player every week.

Despite the recent surge from the Jacksonville defense, they still are 28th in yards allowed per target (9.2 yards) to wideouts and are still dead last in completion rate (74.3%) allowed on targets to the position to give Aiyuk a pulse as a WR4/FLEX.

Jaguars WRs: With Lawrence struggling, this passing game has flatlined out of the bye. Jacksonville wideouts have combined to catch 31-of-64 targets for 241 yards and one touchdown over their past three games.

Jamal Agnew is the only wideout to finish higher than WR54 over that span and last week he didn’t even catch a pass, needing 79 yards and a score on the ground to carry this line. Agnew has seen 36 targets over the five games since D.J. Chark was injured but has cleared 41 yards receiving in just one of those games.

Marvin Jones has all but dried out as the season has progressed. Jones is still running a route on 91.8% of the team passing plays, but he has been held to 35 yards or fewer in five of the past six games. Agnew is a low ceiling FLEX in PPR formats with Jones as a blind faith WR4 option.

Tight End

George Kittle (TRUST): Kittle has come back and found the end zone in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. We have long been chasing touchdown production from Kittle, so hopefully this is the start of a strong close to the season. Kittle has caught two end zone targets for touchdowns the past two games after converting 3-of-23 end zone targets over his career prior.

Kittle has received 23.4% of the targets in his games played this season with at least seven targets in his past four games played. Jacksonville is 30th in yards per target (8.8 yards), 27th in catch rate (75.8%), and 21st in touchdown rate (6.5%) allowed to opposing tight ends.

Dan Arnold: Arnold remained a steady option last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 67 yards while adding a two-point conversion. Arnold has averaged 7.4 targets per game over his past five games with at least 60 receiving yards in four of those weeks. Since becoming a full-time player in Jacksonville in Week 5, Arnold is the TE5 in expected points scored and the TE7 in actual scoring since he has yet to find the end zone yet. San Francisco is allowing just 6.1 yards per target to tight ends (sixth), but they have allowed an 8.3% touchdown rate (27th) to the position. Arnold has established himself as a floor-based TE1 with added elevation in PPR formats.