Steelers vs Chargers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers Sunday Night Football game.

Pittsburgh	Rank	@	LA Chargers	Rank
4.5		Spread	-4.5
21.5		Implied Total	26
19.7	26	Points/Gm	24.3	15
20.6	8	Points All./Gm	25.3	25
66	8	Plays/Gm	63.9	13
62.6	13	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.6	20
5	27	Off. Yards/Play	5.8	14
5.6	18	Def. Yards/Play	5.6	19
38.05%	24	Rush%	35.65%	28
61.95%	9	Pass%	64.35%	5
42.63%	22	Opp. Rush %	49.91%	32
57.37%	11	Opp. Pass %	50.09%	1

Only 51.5% of the scoring plays against the Steelers have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
The Steelers are 31st in the league in yards gained per play on first down (4.2 yards).
The Steelers are last in the league in success rate per dropback (41.7%).
The Steelers have thrown the ball on 66.7% of their red zone plays, the highest rate in the league.
Opposing teams have run on 62.9% of their red zone plays against the Chargers, the highest rate in the league.
The Chargers are allowing a league-worst 51.7% success rate on opponent rushing plays.
Najee Harris has accounted for 27.7% of the Pittsburgh non-passing fantasy points, the highest rate among all running backs in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Justin Herbert: Herbert has been one the most volatile fantasy quarterbacks over the season. He has scorings weeks as the QB2, QB1, and QB1 on his resume, but also another five weeks as the QB16 or lower to go with those spike moments.

Herbert now sits 30th in the league in average depth of target (7.5 yards). That low aDOT is tied to two of his primary targets being Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, but there has been an issue with structure not pressing the ball down the field with the Chargers. For one, Herbert is 28th in aDOT using play-action. Last week, Herbert carried just a 4.8 aDOT from a clean pocket. He did not even attempt a single pass over 20 yards downfield and just four at 15 yards or further downfield.

Herbert is now 33rd in the league in percentage of throws to travel 20-plus yards downfield (8.2%), ahead of only Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt, Ryan, and Daniel Jones, even though he is sixth in completion rate (48.3%) and sixth in yards per attempt (16.6 Y/A) on those throws with zero interceptions.

The Steelers once again are among the top teams in the league in pressure rate and Herbert does have tangible splits facing heat, completing 48.7% of his passes for 5.0 Y/A under pressure compared to a 70.2% completion rate and 7.8 Y/A when kept clean. Pittsburgh may be without T.J. Watt for this game after he left last week due to a knee injury. When Watt missed Week 3 due to injury, Pittsburgh was only able to pressure Joe Burrow on three of his 19 dropbacks. The Steelers also placed Minkah Fitzpatrick on the COVID list, putting his status in doubt.

Pittsburgh is 11th in passing points allowed per game (14.4), but they are 18th in points allowed per attempt (0.44) and 20th in yards allowed per attempt (7.4 Y/A). The potential loss of Watt is a major plus, but Herbert is a boom-or-bust QB1.

Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger missed last week due to COVID, but since he does not have to wait the 10 days that Aaron Rodgers had to since he was vaccinated, he just needs two negative tests. Mike Tomlin has already stated that Roethlisberger would start, even if he fails to practice all week as a last resort.

The problem is that Roethlisberger’s season-high is 16.2 points in standard formats. He has thrown multiple passing touchdowns just twice and now the Steelers are down multiple starting wide receivers. The Chargers have been banged up the past two weeks and now have placed Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery on the COVID list. The Chargers have allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt the past two games after 6.9 Y/A prior. That opens the door for Roethlisberger to be a floor-based QB2, but he has not shown a ceiling to be considered in 1QB formats.

Running Back

Najee Harris (TRUST): After another 30 touches for 133 yards on Sunday, Harris has now touched the ball 25 or more times in each of his past five games with 20-plus touches in seven straight. His volume is the best among all active running backs and runs into a spot we have been targeted all season for backfield production.

The Chargers are allowing 20.8 rushing points per game (31st) and opponents run the ball against them at the highest rated in the league.

Austin Ekeler: After eclipsing 100 yards in four straight games Week 2-5, Ekeler has cleared 82 total yards just once over his past four games. The Chargers have struggled to run the ball overall, with Ekeler rushing for 3.9 YPC over his past five games. Ekeler has also dipped down to 4.3 catches for 37.8 yards per game, his lowest totals since 2018. But his newfound scoring role this season has saved his floor. Ekeler has found the end zone in six of his nine games. Larry Rountree snaked a goal-line tote last week, but Ekeler’s grip on this backfield still remains strong. He’s had at least 70% of the backfield touches in each of the past three games. Ekeler is still an RB1 fantasy option based on his usage and scoring ability.

The Steelers were just blasted for 234 yards by the Detroit backfield last week, but D’Andre Swift was the first back to clear 100 total yards against them on the season.

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson: Even playing with Mason Rudolph last week, Johnson was peppered with 13 targets (26.5%), catching seven of them for 83 yards. A lost fumble cost him some points, but Johnson has now posted double-digit PPR points in every game this season and has five or more receptions in every game but one this year. That said, he has just one WR1 scoring week on the year and has not found the end zone since Week 5.

The Chargers are third in the league in points allowed to opposing WR1 options (11.2 per game), but with Michael Davis sidelined the past two weeks, they have been touched up by DeVonta Smith (5-116-1) and Justin Jefferson (9-143-0). Johnson will get a boost with Roethlisberger returning and another if Davis remains absent as a high floor WR2.

Keenan Allen: Allen has found the end zone just twice, but he is back to being Herbert’s binky in the passing game. Allen has racked up target shares of 32.4%, 35.1%, and 33.3% the past three games, delivering three straight top-15 scoring weeks. The Pittsburgh defensive scheme has long been vulnerable to interior receivers, and we have seen Randall Cobb (5-69-2), Tyler Boyd (4-36-1), and Cole Beasley (8-60-0) turn in solid lines already against them, none of which are in the same weight class as Allen, who is a WR1 in PPR formats and a strong WR2 in non-PPR leagues.

Mike Williams: It turns out that I was not the Mike Williams whisperer last week. Williams was hurt by the lack of downfield passing despite being open regularly and he also provided some self-inflicted damage by putting down a potential touchdown grab late in the game. After four top-15 scoring weeks in his opening five games, Williams has now been the WR45 or lower in each of his past four games played while failing to receive 20% of the team targets in any of those games.

Pittsburgh has been middle-of-the-road defending wideouts this season, allowing 7.9 yards per target (14th), 12.7 yards per catch (17th), and a 5.5% touchdown rate (24th) to the position. The Steelers also have been giving up splash plays, allowing a 47.9% completion rate on throws 15 yards or further downfield (25th) if the Chargers dare take some shots this week. Tack on the potential absence of Joe Haden and there is opportunity here for Williams if the targets find him, but he is back to being a volatile WR3 option until the Chargers get him back involved.

Steelers WRs: Chase Claypool was able to log a limited practice on Wednesday, but with turf toe he is still no sure thing to return this week. Keep tabs on him the rest of this week.

When on the field, Claypool has notched games of 2-17-0 (seven targets), 4-45-0 (five targets), and 3-30-0 (five targets) the past three weeks. Claypool had seen at least 22.5% of the team targets Weeks 2-5, but now has seen 18.5% or less in each of the past three weeks when the table was set for him to takeoff.

If he unable to play, then both James Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud to fill the vacated roles in the passing game. Even with Claypool out on top of the loss of JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Steelers remained a base 11 personnel team, using 11 personnel on 73% of their plays last week, fifth in the league.

Washington ran a route on a team-high 94.2% of the dropbacks compared to an 82.7% rate for McCloud, but McCloud received a career-high 12 targets (9-63-0) while Washington saw just six targets (2-15-1). McCloud did have an 80% route participation in another game this season back in Week 6 and only received two targets, so we will see how sticky his involvement was last week. That said, that Week 6 game also had Claypool on the field as the WR2 as opposed to Washington, so there is just more natural target vacancy due to a talent void. McCloud is worth a speculative add in deep PPR formats if Claypool is going to miss a ton of time, but both of the ancillary Steeler wideouts are better single-game DFS darts while Claypool would be a boom-or-bust WR3 playing through injury.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth: With Eric Ebron back, Freiermuth was back down to a 63.5% route participation rate (76.5% in Week 9), but he still was targeted on 27.3% of his routes, giving him a target rate over 20% in each of the past four games with or without Ebron on the field. Freiermuth ended up seeing nine targets in total, but the results were five catches for 31 yards. Freiermuth has cleared 44 yards in just one of those games, so he still is a bit touchdown-dependent as a TE2, but the Chargers have been giving to tight ends all season long.

The Chargers are allowing 9.4 yards per target (31st) and a league-high 11.1% touchdown rate to tight ends this season.

Jared Cook: Catching 1-of-3 targets for 10 yards last week, Cook has now had a sub-15% target share in six of the nines games this season and has reached 50 yards just twice. He is only a single-game DFS dart throw. The Steelers are mid-pack in allowing 7.5 yards per target (18th) to tight ends, with just two touchdowns allowed to the position.