In Monday night’s Showdown, the struggling Seattle Seahawks visit the Washington Football Team. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
This game is near a pick‘em with Seattle as a 1.5–point road favorite. After a dry run in the optimizer, this was looking like an incredibly even showdown for lineup construction. My initial thought is that 5–1 onslaughts will be under-used in such a closely-lined game.
Strategy
For this week, I don’t agree with these ETR roster construction projections, but I will still include them: lineups with four or five Seahawks our projected for nearly half at >37% for 4–2 builds and >10% for 5–1. In comparison, WFT heavy construction’s are only at <13% and <2% respectively. The 3–3 even build is expected to be most popular by less than 1% over the four Seahawks option. With the game being nearly a pick them, I can’t see the Seahawks builds being that much more popular.
There isn’t consensus on the most Rostered CPT, but it will likely be DK Metcalf or Russell Wilson between 13–16%, and there are differing projections on who will be most rostered in flex as well. Taylor Heinicke, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Lockett and Antionio Gibson could all exceed 10% CPT as well.
Metcalf should be the obvious choice for most of the field over like it, with a similar or higher projection at a nice discount in salary. This allows for some leverage if you’d like to take a stance on Lockett. It makes sense to negatively correlated to together, especially given Seattle’s recent offensive woes. I would prefer McLauren over both Seattle WRs, because he is the clear alpha in his offense and projects for similar rostership. I like a handful of medium cost players for this slate, such as Logan Thomas, Gerald Everett, DeeJay Dallas and J.D. McKissic. Each are a great choice to include in stacks with their QB CPT or as a value to help differentiate.
DK Values
- Logan Thomas ($4800)
- Jason Myers ($4000)
DK Leverage
- Curtis Samuel $5000 – Overpriced right above the best value play (Thomas)
- Cam Sims ($3800) – Very overpriced for his projection
DK Build Ideas
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
- Negative boost same team RBs
- Negative boost Lockett/Metcalf together
- If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
- Cumulative ownership under 250%
- Leave salary unspent
FD Values
- Gerald Everett ($7500)
- Jason Myers ($9000)
FD Leverage
- Anyone $8500 or lower, except Everett, has a terrible projection
FD Build Ideas
- No K or TE at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
- QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
- Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
- Don’t force the max salary
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.