In Thursday night’s Showdown, the Dallas Cowboys visit the New Orleans Saints. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

As favorites of nearly a touchdown, I expect the Cowboys to be heavily rostered by the field in 4–2 builds. The Saints will be starting Taysom Hill at QB and are still dealing with injuries to Alvin Kamara, and Adam Troutman, opening up some cheap value.

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Strategy

The line has been moving in the Cowboys' favor, and we often see 5-1 onslaught being popular in that situation. Tonight should be an exception though because the top value plays are all Saints. 5-1 Cowboys builds are projected for just over 3%, while lineups with five saints are expected just under 3%; the first time I've seen them so closely projected while one team is favored by more than a field goal. The 3-3 roster construction is projected for nearly 45% utilization, and somehow, the 4-2 Saints-heavy build is expected to be over twice as utilized as lineups with 4 Cowboys, which I disagree with. I think this is a matter of simulations and optimizers not accounting for context and incorporating enough of the fields' bias towards the favorite. How I would approach this tonight is to avoid making 3-3 builds as much as possible, and ensure not to use multiple of the obvious values together, especially in 3-3 and 4-2 constructions. I like going for 5-10% usage of each type of onslaught for leverage.

The consensus most-rostered CPT's are Dak Prescott (15-23%), Taysom Hill (13-20%) and Mark Ingram (11-15%). Daily Roto and ETR are far apart on the next tier in terms of popularity, with CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard. Depending on which source you rely on more, you might want to choose some of this second group to go overweight on, especially at CPT, for differentiation. My favorite targets to go overweight on are Michael Gallup (14-24% total) and Juwan Johnson (<10% total). I want to be underweight on Cooper, as there are plenty of options in that offense and he may not be fully healthy yet and he is expected to be rostered almost as much as Lamb, who I greatly prefer. However, he may be a strong game-theory play, especially at CPT, if you disagree with me.

DK Values

  • Mark Ingram II ($5000) – Extremely underpriced RB1
  • Tony Jones Jr. ($800)

DK Leverage

  • Tony Pollard ($7800) – Worst value score on the slate
  • Cedrick Wilson ($4800) – Overpriced WR4 if Cooper plays

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Negative boost same team RBs
  • If CPT Dak, include one depth option in stack and consider stacking 3 pass-catchers
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Make a group of value players like (Ingram, Jones, Hill) to limit exposure to multiple the same lineups (Max 2, Max 1, negative boosts)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Taysom Hill ($7000)
  • Mark Ingram ($12000)

FD Leverage

  • Tony Pollard ($12000)
  • Tony Jones Jr. ($10000)
  • Dalton Schultz ($9500)

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.