In this college football DFS preview, I’ll break down the DraftKings Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options that come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND
QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest
Salary: $9,700
This is one of two games on the slate with a total over 70 points, so you’ll want plenty of exposure to both teams. Kenny Pickett has the highest salary on the slate, but he’s worth targeting due to an elite ceiling.
Four quarterbacks have topped 35 fantasy points against Wake Forest, tied for the most allowed by any defense (with Duke and North Carolina). The Wake defense also ranks 119th in points per game allowed to quarterbacks (25.6).
Pickett ranks sixth in the nation in fantasy points per game, and has topped 40 points three times.
QB Sam Hartman, Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh
Salary: $9,500
The Pittsburgh defense will be one of Sam Hartman’s toughest challenges this season, so we should assume his ceiling is lower than usual. That said, every Wake Forest game has shootout potential, so it still makes sense to have some exposure.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Pitt ranks 25th in pressure rate (38.2%). The only team Wake has faced ranked higher was NC State (ranked eighth, 42.2%), which limited Hartman to a season-low 42.6% completion rate and forced three interceptions.
Hartman still managed 30.9 fantasy points against NC State, so it’s possible for him to generate points based on sheer volume, even if his efficiency is limited.
QB Dustin Crum, Kent State vs. Northern Illinois
Salary: $8,300
In Week 10, Dustin Crum posted 43.1 fantasy points against Northern Illinois, so we have a high degree of confidence he has an elite ceiling in this matchup.
NIU ranks 95th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks (22.4), so Crum was not the only quarterback to victimize this defense. The Huskies also rank 104th in explosive pass rate allowed (plays of 20 or more yards) at 11.9%.
The total for this matchup is set to 74.5, and with Crum’s salary over $1,000 less than Hartman and Pickett, he looks like the top option at the position on this slate.
RB Marquez Cooper, Kent State vs. Northern Illinois
Salary: $6,500
Kent State has become a more run-heavy offense down the stretch, and Marquez Cooper has seen at least 20 carries in four straight games, topping 20 fantasy points in each contest. That stretch includes his last game against NIU, in which he posted a season-high 32.3 fantasy points on 23 carries.
Northern Illinois ranked 115th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs (35.6), so Cooper is virtually a must-roster player on this salary.
WR Jordan Addison, Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest
Salary: $9,300
It’s really hard to roster a receiver on this salary, but it’s worth trying to squeeze Jordan Addison into some lineups in case he breaks out with another 61-point performance, as he did a few weeks ago against Virginia.
In one-score games, Addison leads Pitt with a 31.3% target share, so if this turns into a wild shootout, Addison will be heavily involved.
Although the salary makes him a risk, Addison does have four games over 35 points, so he’s capable of providing value even with a huge cap hit.
WR Deven Thompkins, Utah State vs. San Diego State
Salary: $7,400
San Diego State’s defense limits Deven Thompkins’s typically-elite ceiling, but the reduction in his salary (it’s down $1,500 from last week) means he’s still an option.
WR1s are averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game against the Aztecs, ranked 53rd, so there’s still a respectable projection for Thompkins who sees a 34% target share.
WR Dante Cephas, Kent State vs. Northern Illinois
Salary: $7,100
This salary is a great value for a receiver who sees a 30.3% target share and an 11.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Dante Cephas’s 19.6 fantasy points per game is misleading because he has a few single-digit performances in non-competitive games.
In games decided by 10 points or less, Cephas averages 27.3 fantasy points, with a peak of 52.6 points in a shootout against Buffalo.
Cephas also leads the team with 21 targets at 20 or more yards downfield, so he’ll have opportunities for big plays against a vulnerable NIU defense.
WR Trayvon Rudolph, Northern Illinois vs. Kent State
Salary: $6,900
Since leading receiver Tyrice Richie went down with an injury in Week 10, Trayvon Rudolph leads NIU with a 35.1% target share and a 10.8 aDOT.
The Northern Illinois offense really struggled last week with Ethan Hampton at quarterback and Rudolph had just two receptions for zero yards. So keep an eye on starting quarterback Rocky Lombardi’s status before rostering any NIU receivers, but he is expected to return this week.
WR Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh
Salary: $6,500
This salary is a $1,500 discount from last week for Jaquarii Roberson, which doesn’t really make sense considering the high total for this game.
Roberson’s fantasy production has dipped as of late, but it’s the result of being held out of the end zone in three straight games. According to Sports Info Solutions, Roberson leads Wake with 14 end zone targets, so there’s no reason to think his lack of scoring is anything more than a stretch of bad luck.
CFB DFS Value Plays
QB Chase Brice, Appalachian State at Louisiana
Salary: $6,600
This is probably a week to spend up at the quarterback position, but if you’re looking for cheaper salaries, Chase Brice is worth considering.
In the first meeting between these teams, Brice was terrible, costing Appalachian State the game with a fumble, two interceptions, and going just 3-of-11 passes on passes 10 or more yards downfield. However, there were some encouraging numbers from the game too.
Appalachian State’s offensive line is dominant, and it allowed Brice to be pressured on just 16% of his dropbacks against a strong Louisiana pass rush. According to Sports Info Solutions, Brice averages 8.7 yards per attempt when kept clean this year, so similar protection should lead to a much better performance than we saw in Week 7.
It’s also worth noting, two first quarter turnovers allowed Louisiana to build a 20-3 lead by the end of the first frame. That altered Appalachian State’s game plan, and the Mountaineers never recovered. If App State can avoid the early mistakes, a different game script should help Brice this week.
RB Trestan Ebner, Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
Salary: $5,300
Oklahoma State is holding opponents 81 rushing yards per game below their season average, the fourth-best rate in the nation. That means we might want to avoid Abram Smith ($6,800), but Trestan Ebner’s role in the passing game makes him an option.
In a recent game against Kansas State, Baylor’s run game was shut down (2.2 yards per carry for Smith), so the Bears pivoted to a short passing game that resulted in seven receptions for Ebner.
In their last meeting, Ebner was held to zero fantasy points, but his role in the passing game has increased significantly since that game.
Oklahoma State ranks dead last in the Big 12 in yards per target allowed to running backs (9.8), so it would make sense for Baylor to attempt to exploit this area against an otherwise dominant Cowboys defense.
RB Greg Bell, San Diego State vs. Utah State
Salary: $5,200
San Diego State is among the most run-heavy offenses, and there’s even more incentive to lean on the run against a fast-paced explosive passing offense like Utah State.
Opposing running backs are averaging 30.0 fantasy points per game against Utah State, ranked 94th.
In a one-score game, Bell has seen 65% of the handoffs in the Aztec offense, so expect a heavy dose of Bell in this matchup.
RB Blake Corum, Michigan vs. Iowa
Salary: $4,300
In his first game back from injury against Ohio State, Blake Corum had just six touches, but he wasn’t really needed given the production from Hassan Haskins ($8,700). The Iowa defense will be more of a challenge, so it’s likely we see Corum get some opportunities, as he is the more explosive of the two ball carriers.
Prior to his injury, Corum was also tied for third on the team in targets. If this is a close game 一 especially if Iowa takes a lead 一 we’ll likely see Corum incorporated into the offense in the passing game more this week.
With five games reaching 20 or more fantasy points, Corum is clearly capable of providing elite value on this salary.
WR Cole Tucker, Northern Illinois vs. Kent State
Salary: $5,000
Despite missing five games this season, Cole Tucker has been a key part of the NIU offense when healthy. In the seven games he’s played, Tucker has a 22% target share.
Tucker has reached 18 fantasy points in three games, and obviously has a much higher ceiling in this potential shootout. He probably has the best combination of ceiling and salary of any receiver on the slate.
Tucker did not play last week, but he is listed as a starter on the depth chart. Prior to last week’s game, Tucker was listed as a starter, but with the “OR” designation with Mohamed Toure. This week Tucker is the lone starter listed at his position, likely indicating a high level of confidence he suits up.
WR Jared Wayne, Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest
Salary: $4,400
In Taysir Mack’s absence, Jared Wayne is second on the team in target share (17%) and a 14.3 aDOT.
The Wake Forest defense ranks 76th in completion rate allowed at 10 or more yards downfield, so we could see Pickett and Wayne connect on a few downfield throws in this matchup.
WR Ja’Shaun Poke, Kent State vs. Northern Illinois
Salary: $3,800
As previously mentioned (see Dustin Crum), NIU is vulnerable against explosive passing offenses, which gives Ja’Shaun Poke an elevated ceiling. Poke is fourth on Kent State in target share (11.5%), but sees a strong 11.0 aDOT and could turn in a few big plays.
In the regular season matchup against NIU, Poke was third on the team with six targets, and hauled in four catches for 84 yards. Three of those targets were at least 20 yards downfield.
WR Blaine Green, Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Salary: $3,500
Over the last three weeks, freshman Blaine Green has seen a significant usage increase and is second on the team with a 16% target share in that span. His 5.6 aDOT in that span isn’t great, but the salary reflects the modest ceiling.
Green is coming off a career-high five receptions on six targets against Oklahoma, so he appears to be building more trust from Spencer Sanders and could continue to see his role grow.
TE Cameron Latu, Alabama vs. Georgia
Salary: $3,500
There aren’t many options in the bargain bin this week, but Cameron Latu might be worth a dart throw. In SEC play, he’s tied for second on the team in end zone targets (four).
It’s also possible Latu plays a bigger role in the passing game due to the likelihood Georgia’s pass rush limits Bryce Young’s ability to hang in the pocket and throw downfield. Jahleel Billingsley ($3,200) is an option for similar reasons.
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO AVOID
QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs. Houston
Salary: $9,000
The total for this game is set to 52 points, so there aren’t many great options. As the quarterback with the third-highest salary, it’s probably best to avoid Desmond Ridder.
Houston ranks 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks (15.0) and only three quarterbacks have topped 20 fantasy points, with none reaching 30.
Perhaps you could consider Ridder in cash games, but it’s tough to envision Ridder providing enough value in tournaments on this salary.
