In Sunday night’s Showdown, the New Orleans Saints visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a divisional matchup. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

The Bucs are huge favorites at home and their players should dominate rostership, so there will probably be a disproportionate percentage of 5–1 and 4–2 Tampa Bay lineups.

Strategy

There is expected to be over 26 times more Bucs onslaughts than there are Saints 5-1 builds. Lineups with four Bucs are projected for 40% utilization while rosters with four Saints are <7%. 3-3 rosters should approach 37%. Per usual, these numbers suggest the field is overconfident in a dominant Tampa Bay victory, offering valuable leverage on the underdogs.

Tom Brady (16-18%) or Leonard Fournette (14-18%) are likely to contend for the most rostered CPT, as well as overall, each near 70% total rostership. Chris Godwin (11-15%) and Taysom Hill (9–12%) are next.

It is unlikely that Hill passes for a ton of yardage or TDs, so I wouldn’t build stacks with him as if he were a normal QB. An optimal WR or TE from New Orleans would likely be a strong value who happens to catch a TD, rather than one who gets huge volume and yardage. It will also be tough for Hill to support multiple past catchers, especially for stacks of three or more. Although Alvin Kamara has an incredibly difficult matchup, a Saints victory will most likely depend on him and/or Hill.

Godwin is a great option to go overweight on at CPT, perhaps while going underweight on Brady. Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are also decent choices, considering their lower rostership. I recommend including more depth players for extra differentiation in your lineups that include Brady and other popular plays, especially if that popular play is at CPT.

DK Values

  • Leonard Fournette ($9200)
  • Ty Montgomery ($1200)
  • Bucs DST ($4000)

DK Leverage

  • Ronald Jones II ($5600)
  • Nick Vannett ($3400)

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Negative correlation of Fournette and Jones (negative boost group)
  • If CPT Hill, don’t stack more than 2 WR/TE
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Tre'Quan Smith ($8000)
  • Ty Montgomery ($5500)

FD Leverage

  • Anyone $8500 or less

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.