The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints Monday Night Football game.
| Miami | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 17.8 | Implied Total | 20.8 | ||
| 20.4 | 23 | Points/Gm | 22.4 | 17 |
| 22.3 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 20.4 | 6 |
| 65.2 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 19 |
| 65.1 | 25 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 20 |
| 4.8 | 30 | Off. Yards/Play | 5 | 26 |
| 5.4 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 7 |
| 38.66% | 23 | Rush% | 47.42% | 5 |
| 61.34% | 10 | Pass% | 52.58% | 28 |
| 36.73% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 39.87% | 12 |
| 63.27% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 60.13% | 21 |
- Over the past four weeks, the Dolphins are first in the league in success rate allowed per play (34.3%) while the Saints are third (37.0%).
- The Saints (every 20.7 plays) and the Dolphins (every 21.2 plays) are 24th and 25th in rate of gains of 20 or more yards on offense.
- The Dolphins are averaging 1.8 explosive carries (gains of 10 or more yards) per game, 31st in the league.
- Just 9.2% of the carries against New Orleans have gained 10 or more yards, fourth in the league.
- 20.9% of the carries against the Saints have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the league.
- Taysom Hill is completing 60.3% of his passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt on first and second passes as opposed to a 42.9% completion rate and 4.5 Y/A on third down pass attempts.
- 51.9% of the scoring plays allowed by the Saints have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 61.2%.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa struggled a bit on Sunday against the Jets, completing 59.3% of his passes for 196 yards while throwing a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. The down week in general kept him respectable as a high-end QB2. That is where Tagovailoa has crested at. He has one week this season inside of the top-10, but just two games lower than QB17.
The Dolphins should be expected to struggle running here to press volume, but this is a tougher draw than what Tua and the Dolphins have had of late. The Saints are seventh in EPA as a pass defense, just the third team Tagovailoa has faced this season that is in the top-10. In his first two, Tagovailoa was the QB15 (15.2 points) and QB17 (13.2 points), keeping him as a floor-based option as a mid-QB2.
