In Saturday night’s Showdown, the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

Josh Allen faces off against Bill Belichick‘s squad for the third time this season. The first two games between these teams were vastly different and I’m interested to see how this one goes.

Strategy

As five-point favorites, builds featuring more Bills are expected to be significantly more popular. Onslaughts of 5-1 are >12% compared to <2% for NE. Lineups with four BUF players are nearly 38% while four NE players are just over 12%, and 3-3 is over 36%. These numbers are wider than they should be, considering the spread is under a TD and these teams traded wins already this season.

Josh Allen will once again dominate the rostership, likely approaching 30% CPT and 90% total. Stefon Diggs (14%) and Devin Singletary (12%) are the only others expected >10% at CPT. An approach I like would be to pivot to Diggs and go overweight on him while being underweight Allen CPT. Singletary also seems a bit higher than I would have thought. With the three most popular all being from Buffalo, the best way to differentiate is to use Patriots players, especially at CPT. It is far more likely that New England wins than these rostership projections infer. If building around the upset, consider Mac Jones skinny stacks on one hand, or building around the rushing attack on the other hand.

DK Values

  • Gabriel Davis ($4400)
  • Nelson Agholor ($2600)

DK Leverage

  • Damien Harris ($10,400)
  • Emmanuel Sanders ($5600)

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Kendrick Bourne ($8000)
  • Gabriel Davis ($9500)

FD Leverage

  • Cole Beasley ($10,500)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson ($10,000)

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.