In Sunday night’s Showdown, the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Kansas City Chiefs as large underdogs. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

The Steelers have limped into the playoffs and now face a team that destroyed them 36-10 only weeks ago. We can expect that builds with four or five Chiefs, one being at CPT, will make up the large majority of entries. 

Strategy

You might be surprised to learn that the projected utilization for construction in tonight's game is very similar to last night's, in spite of the Chiefs being favored by 13 compared to the Bills being only favored by five against the Patriots. This can mean a couple of things; the Bills were over-owned based on what the betting market thought, the Cheifs will be under-rostered tonight based on the odds, or both. The numbers break down like this: Lineups containing five Chiefs (>13%) compared to five Steelers (<2%), four from KC (>38%) versus PIT (<11%), and three from each nearly 36%. If the Steelers manage an upset, it is very unlikely to be in a blowout, so I could see using a maximum of three PIT players in any lineup. I'd also be willing to go way over the field on both the 4-2 and 5-1 KC builds.

Patrick Mahomes is expected to be the most-rostered at CPT (20%) and flex (84%). Tyreek Hill (15%) and Darrell Williams (13%) are the other two projected over 10% at CPT. Next are Najee Harris, Travis Kelce, Dionte Johnson, and Chase Claypool in the 5-10% range. My top choice for leverage is going over the field with Kelce. I could also get behind Harris, Johnson, or even Ben Roethlisberger to a lesser extent when building for a Steelers upset. Williams has a monstrous projection and value score, which could support an argument for going way overweight on him as well, especially given the Steelers' terrible run defense. For contrarian flex options, I like Derrick Gore, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Pat Freiermuth.

DK Values

  • Juju Smith-Schuster ($200) – Left at stone-minimum salary in return from injury
  • Darrell Williams ($6400)
  • Derrick Gore ($1600)

DK Leverage

  • Demarcus Robinson ($4400)
  • Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4600)

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Darrell Williams ($12,000)
  • Juju Smith-Schuster ($5000)

FD Leverage

  • Anyone $9000 or less besides Smith-Schuster

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.