In Sunday night’s Showdown, the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs as slight underdogs. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

With the game line so closely and the value plays evenly dispersed between both teams, 3-3 builds should be to most utilized by far. My guess is that onslaughts of 5-2 will be used less than is optimal.

Strategy

Last night's plan to go heavy on the 49ers as underdogs worked out perfectly, as well as pivoting from popular CPTs to undervalued options. I'm surprised to see the projections for roster construction utilization tonight are again showing value on the underdogs, in spite of the line being very close to a pick 'em. For starters, five Chiefs are just <8% while five Bills slightly <3%; given the spread, I'd argue it should be within a percentage. The discrepancy is also too large with four Chiefs (>30%) compared to four Bills (>18%). That leaves 41% for the 3-3 build. One viable strategy would be to go way under the field on 3-3 builds and allot those lineups to going overweight with both teams' onslaughts and 4-2 Bills.

At CPT, we have the first near-tie I can recall, with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen both >16%, though Allen is projected for >5% more at flex, with each >69% total. Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs are all in the 9-11% CPT range, though Kelce is the only one of these three approaching overall rostership of 50%. Given these five players are clustered between 9-16% CPT, you can easily go overweight on any of your choosing. One way to differentiate here is to negatively correlate the QBs so that you don't have as many lineups with the two most popular players as most of the field. A great spot to do this in some lineups is where you have a WR at CPT, and instead of stacking them with their QB, switching to the opposing QB. Some contrarian plays I like are Devin Singletary, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, and Jerrick McKinnon (most risky).

DK Values

  • Gabriel Davis ($5200)
  • Byron Pringle ($5400)

DK Leverage

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7800)
  • Cole Beasley ($4400)

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Gabriel Davis ($10,000)
  • Byron Pringle ($10,000)

FD Leverage

  • Dawson Knox ($12,500)
  • Anyone $9500 or less, other than the kickers

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.