Last year, one week prior to Super Bowl LV, the Los Angeles Rams stunned the NFL in agreeing to a deal that would land Matthew Stafford in exchange for Jared Goff. The deal included two first-round picks and a third-round pick. It was clear that Rams head coach and playcaller Sean McVay was not confident in his ability to win multiple playoff games with Goff as his quarterback.
One year later, McVay and the Rams enter Super Bowl LVI as 4.5-point favorites. Has McVay tailored the offense to one of the league’s top units with the acquisition of Matthew Stafford? Has McVay unleashed the full potential of the Rams offense?
Sean McVay, The Coach & Playcaller
McVay took over the mediocre Rams in 2017 and has had five consecutive winning seasons, four playoff appearances, and has a 55-26 regular season record with a .679 winning percentage as head coach.
McVay has had two offensive coordinators during his tenure as head coach, and both will have landed head coaching jobs as of next week. It is clear from the Rams’ success that the offense has been above league average in McVay’s five-year tenure, however, it is also clear that the offense has been very balanced in terms of first down run/pass balance, even with the addition of Matthew Stafford.
Sean McVay First Down Playcalling
| Year | Record | First Down, First Half Pass Rate | League Rank | Quarterback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 11-5 | 51% | 6th | Goff |
| 18 | 13-3 | 51% | 16th | Goff |
| 19 | 9-7 | 54% | 6th | Goff |
| 20 | 10-6 | 50% | 16th | Goff |
| 21 | 12-5 | 51% | 12th | Stafford |
Matthew Stafford The Gunslinger
The former first overall pick turned 34 years old this week and has battled chronic back pain. Unfortunately for Stafford, this is an injury that will continue to worsen as time passes and can flare up from time to time.
The first report of the injury occurred this year prior to the Rams’ Week 9 game against the Titans, and Stafford’s CPOE showed a drastic drop in subsequent weeks, with a bit of improvement near the end of the season.
It is difficult to determine the extent to which the injury affects Stafford, but it is clear his game trailed off for a span of a few weeks after appearing on the injury report. Stafford’s passing splits have been remarkable from first down to second and third down over the past two years.
Each year his passer rating has dropped more than 10 points on second and third down compared to first down. Stafford was the league's highest-rated passer on first down this year and a slightly above average passer on other downs, yet the Rams did not increase the first down passing rate. Goff was very pedestrian no matter what down he threw on during his final year as a Ram. As the season has gone on and with Stafford possibly battling back issues, it becomes more important to put Stafford in a position for success by passing on first down.
Stafford vs Goff, Splits By Down
*passer rating ranking is based on quarterbacks with > 50 passing attempts.
| Down | Quarterback | Completion % | YPA | TD | Int | TD/Int | Success Rate | Rating | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Stafford 2021 | 69% | 8 | 19 | 3 | 6.3 | 58% | 112.4 | 1/38 |
| 2nd-3rd | Stafford 2021 | 69% | 8.6 | 26 | 15 | 1.7 | 56% | 100 | 11/46 |
| 1st | Stafford 2020 | 70% | 8.8 | 11 | 4 | 2.8 | 61% | 106.6 | 10/39 |
| 2nd-3rd | Stafford 2020 | 65% | 7.7 | 13 | 5 | 2.6 | 48% | 95.9 | 21/44 |
| 1st | Goff 2020 | 75% | 7.9 | 5 | 3 | 1.7 | 65% | 99.1 | 21/39 |
| 2nd-3rd | Goff 2020 | 68% | 7.4 | 17 | 7 | 2.4 | 52% | 98.1 | 18/44 |
Rams 2021 First Down Tendencies
Although The Rams had a very successful season and won the NFC West, the offense showed drastic play calling differences in wins than it did in losses. In comparing the games in which The Rams won vs the games lost, there was a 16% drop in early down passing rate in the first half in losses. The offense actually had a higher passing success rate and explosive passing rate in the losses, however, did not pass nearly enough on early downs.
Rams First Downs, 2021
| Rams | Points Scored | First Down, Firstst Half Pass Rate | Pass Success Rate | Explosive Pass Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 27.2 | 51 | 51% | 8% |
| Wins | 30.1 | 56 | 50% | 7% |
| Losses | 20.2 | 40 | 56% | 11% |
Super Bowl Aspirations
I absolutely applaud Rams owner Stan Kroenke’s all-in attitude, which has landed the Rams a spot in Super Bowl LVI. Stafford is 34 years old with only one year left on a team-friendly contract, and draft capital has been spent on winning now. This may be McVay’s best opportunity to win a Super Bowl in Los Angeles and he needs to go out and win this game instead of playing not to lose.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense ranks 28th in first down success rate against the pass despite playing a below average strength of passing schedule. McVay championed for Stafford, now it’s time to put him in a position to win with aggressive first down plays.
