Betting the Under for Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Player Prop Bet

We break down why you should take the UNDER on Jonathan Taylor rushing yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.

Jonathan Taylor's rushing yards prop: why you should bet the under

Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Jonathan Taylor:

1449.5 rushing yards at BetMGM
1450.5 rushing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook

Jonathan Taylor is coming off a memorable season, and there’s no reason to doubt his ability to put up impressive numbers again. However, reaching the statistical markers he achieved in 2021 will be difficult to repeat.

Expected drop in workload
Yardage produced on long runs should drop off significantly

#1 Reason to Bet the Under

Taylor finished the season with 332 carries, but such an extreme workload did not appear to be the Colts’ initial game plan.

Through Week 8, Taylor averaged 15.1 carries per game (on pace for 257 for a full season). However, Week 8 was Marlon Mack’s final game 一 he had been ineffective, returning from his 2020 Achilles injury.

From Week 9 through the end of the year, Taylor then averaged 23.4 carries per game, as Indy essentially operated without a backup running back.

When the score was within 10 points, Taylor accounted for 94% of the team’s handoffs to running backs in the second half of the season 一 a massive leap from 69% through Week 8.

It’s hard to imagine the game plan is for Taylor to accumulate 332 carries again. Phillip Lindsay was added to the backfield to help lighten his load, and we should see him strategically used to limit Taylor’s touches when possible.

#2 Reason to Bet the Under

In 2021, Taylor had 14 carries of at least 20 yards, gaining a total of 550 yards on those attempts (30% of his total yardage).

That yardage total on long runs is an extreme outlier, and virtually impossible to repeat.

Dating back to 2000, Taylor was just the 19th player to have gained at least 500 total yards on long runs (20 or more yards). To underscore just how hard it is to replicate those numbers, consider these stats from the previous 18 ball carriers:

None of the 18 reached 500 yards on long runs the following year
Only 3 of the 18 reached 400 yards the next season
On average, their long-run yardage total decreased by 61% the following season
The smallest percentage decrease was 24% (LaDainian Thomlinson from 2006 to 2007)

Applying that 61% decrease to Taylor, we would expect his yardage total to drop by about 336 yards. Subtracting that from his 2021 yardage total leaves him with 1,475 yards 一 enough to hit the over, but only if he were able to replicate everything else from his impressive 2021 campaign.

With less yardage piled up on long runs, and slightly fewer touches over the course of the season, it will be difficult for Taylor to hit the over on his rushing yards prop.

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