After the Week 0 teaser, the full college football slate is back this weekend, beginning with some key games on Thursday night.
This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at a battle of ranked teams between No. 23 Cincinnati and No. 19 Arkansas.
Cincinnati vs Arkansas Spread, current line:
Cincinnati vs Arkansas Best Bet Prediction:
Lay the points and take Arkansas at -6.5 against the spread. With former Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder now in the NFL, Arkansas holds a massive edge at quarterback 一 trust K.J. Jefferson and the Razorbacks to cover the spread in this one.
When Cincinnati is on Offense
Cincinnati lost its quarterback (Ridder), leading rusher (Jerome Ford), and leading receiver (Alec Pierce) to the NFL.
The Bearcats will remain a contender in the American, but it’s tough to lose that much talent and then go on the road in the SEC and pull off an upset.
Luke Fickell has not named a starting quarterback, but Ben Bryant 一 a transfer from Eastern Michigan, who began his career at Cincinnati 一 is expected to get the nod.
When facing pressure at Eastern Michigan last year, Bryant was sacked or threw an interception on 37.4% of his dropbacks, the second worst rate in the FBS.
If MAC defenses confused Bryant, he’s going to struggle against Arkansas’s unit led by one of the game’s best defensive coordinators, Barry Odom.
When Arkansas is on Offense
Arkansas is among the most run-heavy offenses in the nation. In a one-score game, the Razorbacks threw the ball just 41% of the time, the eighth lowest rate among non-option offenses.
Last year’s starting running back Trelon Smith is gone, but plenty of experience returns:
- Raheim Sanders: 114 carries, 5.1 yards per attempt
- Dominique Johnson: 97 carries, 5.9 yards per attempt
Cincinnati’s strength was its defense last year, but its run defense was inconsistent.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Cincinnati ranked 42nd in EPA per rush attempt allowed, according to Sports Info Solutions.
With only two starters returning to the Bearcats front seven, Arkansas will likely be able to move the ball on the ground.
Final Thoughts on Cincinnati vs Arkansas Best Bets
During Sam Pittman’s three years at Arkansas, the Razorbacks are 4-1 straight up when favored by less than a touchdown (2-2-1 ATS). This is a well-coached team that takes care of business in tight games.
Based on that trend, you could make a case for taking Arkansas on the money line (-250) if you don’t trust them to cover the spread.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 1:
