This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a closer look at a key SEC battle between Kentucky and Florida.
Kentucky vs Florida Spread, current line:
Kentucky vs Florida Best Bet Prediction:
Some discouraging trends emerged for Kentucky in Week 1, so take Florida against the spread at -6 points in this SEC showdown.
When Kentucky is on Offense
The key to this game may be Kentucky’s ability to protect quarterback Will Levis.
In conference play in 2021, when Levis was under pressure he generated a boom-bust ratio (percentage of plays earning +1 EPA compared to -1 EPA) of .36 一 only LSU’s Max Johnson and Mississippi State’s Will Rogers were worse, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Kentucky did a decent job protecting Levis last year, ranking 31st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed. However, the Wildcats returned only two starters on the offensive line and allowed Levis to be pressured on 32% of his dropbacks against Miami OH last week 一 a relatively high rate considering the level of competition.
Florida ranked 28th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated last year, and posted an impressive 41.2% pressure rate against Utah in Week 1.
The Kentucky offensive line also showed some serious issues in the run game last week, as the Wildcats’ running backs averaged a putrid .06 yards before contact per attempt.
If Florida’s front seven proves to be a mismatch for the Kentucky offensive line, this game likely won’t be close.
When Florida is on Offense
Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson carried the ball 11 times for 106 yards and forced four missed tackles against a physical Utah defense last week.
He may have an even easier time running against a Kentucky defense that missed nine tackles last week against Miami OH.
The Wildcats could potentially cause problems for Florida if they can get pressure on Richardson when he drops back to pass.
Richardson was just 1-5 under pressure last week, and is now 9-25 with five interceptions versus pressure in his career, per Sports Info Solutions.
Fortunately for Florida, Kentucky appears to have one of the SEC’s worst pass-rush units.
The Wildcats ranked 93rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate last season, and only generated a 19% pressure rate against Miami in their season opener.
Dating back to 2016, SEC and MAC teams have squared off 19 times. In those meetings, the average pressure rate by SEC defenses was 37% and no one generated a lower rate than Kentucky’s 19% against Miami.
Final Thoughts on Kentucky vs Florida Best Bets
A different Kentucky team will need to show up for them to have a chance against Florida.
Kentucky lost the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball against Miami OH, which does not bode well for a competitive season in the SEC. Lay the points and take Florida.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 2:
