This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into a key Big 12 battle between Baylor and Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor Spread, current line:
Oklahoma State vs Baylor Best Bet Prediction:
This is Oklahoma State’s first test of the year, but we’ve seen enough of Baylor to know the team has taken a step back from 2021 一 take the points and bet Oklahoma State against the spread.
» Bet it now: Oklahoma State +2.5
When Oklahoma State is on Offense
Oklahoma State runs a fast-paced offense, ranking third in the nation in seconds per play.
The Cowboys also rely on a quick-strike passing attack which has the potential to cause problems for an inexperienced Baylor defense.
Arguably the most important role in Dave Aranda’s defense is the star position (a hybrid safety/linebacker role), at which Al Walcott is attempting to replace Jalen Pitre (Houston Texans’ second-round pick). According to Sports Info Solutions, Walcott already has four missed tackles 一 Pitre had five in 876 snaps last year.
Partially due to the loss of Pitre, Baylor’s run defense has not been as stout this year. The Bears are contacting ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage on 40% of their carries, ranked 60th in the nation 一 it ranked 24th last year.
Dominic Richardson should have some room to run in this matchup, and when he crosses the line of scrimmage untouched, he’s averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season.
When Baylor is on Offense
Baylor relies on a fairly conservative, run-heavy offense but it may not have the offensive talent necessary to run offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes’s system effectively this year.
Quarterback Blake Shapen takes a traditional dropback (3 or more steps) at a 47% rate, according to Sports Info Solutions. This makes it more difficult to keep Shapen in a clean pocket, and Baylor ranks 82nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed.
Shapen’s numbers in a loss to BYU demonstrated the issues Baylor could face this season:
- Pressured on 31% of dropbacks
- Pressured on 40% of traditional dropbacks
- 1-6, 13 yards, 4 sacks when under pressure
Shapen did bounce back with a strong performance against Iowa State last week, but the Cyclones rank 111th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate 一 so it was likely just a good matchup to help hide Baylor’s flaws.
Baylor’s pro-style approach also forces its ball carriers to run into a stacked box at an elevated rate (56% of carries, ranked 97th).
Oklahoma State is allowing just 3.2 yards per carry versus a stacked box, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Cowboys defense also ranks 11th in the country in opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact allowed, so Baylor may struggle to find running room.
Baylor is also likely to be without starting running back Taye McWilliams for the third straight game.
Richard Reese has taken over for McWilliams, but at 5’9”, 175 pounds, he’s not the ideal lead back for this offense. Against Iowa State, Reese carried the ball into a stacked box nine times, gaining just six yards.
Final Thoughts on Oklahoma State vs Baylor Best Bets
Since the start of 2021, Baylor is 6-1 against the spread as a home favorite, but I’m going against the trend and taking the points with Oklahoma State.
Quite a few of the aforementioned numbers indicate Baylor may be living off the reputation it earned last season, but it’s probably going through a partial rebuilding year.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 4:
