This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at a big SEC battle between Tennessee and LSU, with the Vols looking for their first win in Death Valley since 2005.
Tennessee vs LSU Spread, current line:
Tennessee vs LSU Best Bet Prediction:
If this were a night game in Death Valley there would be reason to pause, but with a noon kickoff, lay the points and take Tennessee against the spread at LSU.
When Tennessee is on Offense
Tennessee runs a play once every 20.7 seconds, the nation’s fourth-fastest rate.
Not only do the Vols play fast, but quarterback Hendon Hooker gets the ball out quickly, which limits the defense’s ability to generate pressure. Based on opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed, no team is better at protecting its quarterback than the Vols.
Hooker has taken a traditional dropback (three or more steps) at the lowest rate in FBS (9.8%), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Tennessee’s approach to the passing game could give LSU issues, as it ranks 83rd in the nation in yards per attempt allowed (7.4) versus non-traditional dropbacks.
The deep ball is also a significant part of the Tennessee offense, as Hooker is averaging 5.3 attempts per game at 20 or more yards downfield, completing 43% of those throws (FBS average: 35%), per Sports Info Solutions.
The deep passing game is potentially an area when Tennessee can exploit the LSU defense, as the Tigers are allowing a 42% completion rate at those throws against FBS opponents. Although it’s a small sample size through just four games, LSU also struggled last year, allowing a 40% completion rate.
Expect a pass-heavy approach from Tennessee, because LSU’s defense holds an edge in the run game.
Tennessee ranks 94th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact per attempt, while the LSU defense ranks 23rd in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Tennessee will likely be without its top pass catcher Cedric Tillman, but Jalin Hyatt and Bru McCoy remain a strong duo at receiver. Hyatt and McCoy have combined to haul in 88% of catchable targets.
When LSU is on Offense
LSU must keep this game close, because it can’t trust quarterback Jayden Daniels if the game is on his shoulders.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has been forced to keep things simple for Daniels 一 his average depth of throw is just 6.4 yards downfield, the seventh lowest rate in FBS.
This conservative style is not Denbrock’s preferred offense. Last season as Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator, Denbrock orchestrated Desmond Ridder’s average throw at 9.9 yards downfield. And the last time Denbrock and Brian Kelly worked together (Notre Dame, 2017) Brandon Wimbush had the fourth-highest average depth of throw in the nation (11.9 yards), per Sports Info Solutions.
This approach is necessary due to Daniels's numbers when throwing 10 or more yards downfield:
- 40.7% completion rate (ranked 89th)
- 56.0% catchable pass rate (ranked 110th)
Opposing defenses have no reason to respect LSU’s downfield passing game, which makes stopping the run easier. As a result, LSU ranks 115th in opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact.
As a result, this looks like a particularly bad matchup for LSU due to these already impressive numbers for the Vols’ run defense:
- Ranked seventh in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed
- Ranked 15th in rate of contacting ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage (51%)
- Ranked fifth in explosive rush rate allowed (6.1% of carries gaining 10 or more yards)
LSU will also be without starting running back Armoni Goodwin, who was injured last week, though backups Noah Cain and John Emery both have plenty of experience.
Final Thoughts on Tennessee vs LSU Best Bets
Winning on the road in Death Valley is rarely easy, but since Josh Heupel arrived in Tennessee last year, the Vols are 2-0 against the spread as a road favorite.
With virtually all the numbers in this game pointing to an easy Tennessee win, I’ll trust Heupel and the Vols and lay the points.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 6:
