The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 15 Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon game.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spread | -4 | ||
| 19.25 | Implied Total | 23.25 | ||
| 22.2 | 16 | Points/Gm | 20.4 | 21 |
| 24 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 22.8 | 17 |
| 57.4 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 24 |
| 65.6 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 19 |
| 5.5 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 9 |
| 5.8 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 9 |
| 56.03% | 2 | Rush% | 41.56% | 16 |
| 43.97% | 31 | Pass% | 58.44% | 17 |
| 45.13% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 43.79% | 22 |
| 54.87% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 56.21% | 11 |
- After opening the season 6-0 against the spread, the Falcons are a league-worst 1-6 ATS since.
- The Saints have just 12 plays of 20 or more yards since Week 8, the fewest in the NFL. League average over that span is 22.2.
- New Orleans is averaging 1.27 points per drive over their past five games, 31st in the league.
- Since Week 8, the Saints are allowing 4.66 yards per play, the third-fewest in the league.
- Just 3.4% of the New Orleans backfield carries since Week 8 have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- Atlanta has allowed opponents to score on 50.9% of their drives on the road this season, the highest rate in the league.
- The Falcons lead the league in rate of rushing attempts to gain five or more yards (44.0%).
Quarterback
Desmond Ridder: Atlanta is finally making the move to Ridder to close the season. To this point, the Falcons have been a hyper-conservative offense. This move does not invoke a major change from that approach. On the season, Atlanta is 13% below pass rate expectation. They rank 32nd in early down passing rate in neutral game scripts (39.6%).
Ridder was a four-year starter in Cincinnati. Protecting the ball was his best attribute in college, posting a career TD-to-INT ratio in the 73rd percentile, making up ground for a 49th percentile completion rate (62.1%) and 48th percentile yards per attempt (7.9 Y/A).
Digging into the metrics this past season, Ridder was pressured on just 23.2% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in this class. When under pressure, however, Ridder posted an on-target rate of 51.8%. That rate was not only the lowest rate in the class, but a full 10% lower than the next closest quarterback. Ridder had the largest differential in on-target rate under pressure (-23.2%) as opposed to kept clean. The positive news this week is that the Saints are 28th in pressure rate (27.4%).
Ridder does come with some mobility, which is what gave Marcus Mariota a pulse as a QB2 in fantasy in this offense. Ridder’s 43.6 rushing yards per game for his career were third in this class. Ridder backed that up by showing out as the best athlete at the combine (Malik Willis did not work out), registering a 4.52 40-yard time, which was the fastest time for a quarterback in Indy since Mariota in 2015.
The Saints have been hot defensively. Since Week 7, New Orleans has allowed a 63.2% completion rate (ninth), 6.0 yards per pass attempt (second), and a 2.9% touchdown rate (third).
Ridder is a floor-based option in 2QB formats due to his rushing ability.
